Philadelphia 76ers Lottery Misfortune Wouldn’t be a Bad Thing
There’s been this overarching theme throughout the season that the Philadelphia 76ers’ tanking modus operandi absolutely needs to yield a top-three pick or else Sam Hinkie’s plan was-a failure. The top pick is the ultimate goal. Top-three isn’t great, but it still helps justify the plan. Land outside the lottery though? FAILURE, especially because they haven’t started building anything towards becoming a quality NBA team.*
*We’ll ignore the fact that the Sixers have a near-top-10 defense and Nerlens Noel. That’s a rant for another time.
But as we’ve seen the prospects at the top of this draft emerge, a top-three pick may not be the best thing for the 76ers, given the current roster construction. The 76ers have grabbed arguably the best center prospects in each of the last two drafts, and have seen exactly one season of play combined between the two of them. The two best prospects in the 2015 NBA draft, Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, project as around-the-basket post players. Now, both players have good chances to become stars — Okafor might be the best collegiate post player since Patrick Ewing, and Towns looks like a mutant KG/David Robinson hybrid.
But, Noel and Embiid both have star potential as well; Noel, if not for Rudy Gobert, would be carrying the label of the “Next Great Rim Protector”, and Embiid, if healthy, has a future as a fantastic two-way center. There are significant questions surrounding both, but neither has really gotten a full chance to develop, and adding a third big man, who will demand a significant focus from the coaching staff regarding development, would create a log jam that would hurt all three players’ development.
Players like D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay would make more sense for the 76ers, because they are both off-the-bounce creators offensively who can generate offense, giving the Sixers’ anemic offense a huge boost. However, at this juncture, it appears that there’s a clear top two prospects, followed by a group of six or seven prospects who could go in the 3-to-10 slots. A top-two pick might pigeon-hole the Sixers into drafting Okafor or Towns, which would give them another chance at a star, but might force them to make a decision on Embiid or Noel before either has gotten a full chance to develop.
That’s why the Sixers falling into the 3-to-5 range in the draft might be the better alternative. There are still plenty of guys in that range that can turn into stars, but almost every prospect the Sixers could pick here would be a better roster fit. Russell or Mudiay might be a reach at the two if Towns or Okafor is on the board, but they’re perfect for the third or fourth pick. Russell, the 41 percent three-point shooter, is probably the better fit, but either can create well off the drive, and would be an improvement over the Sixers’ current guard situation.
A later pick would also open up the opportunity for Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow to be the choice. I love Johnson and Winslow as fits with Brett Brown, because they’re both great at scoring off cuts and have solid defensive potential, Johnson more so than Winslow. Either could potentially become a second or third scorer and solid defensive wing, similar to Andre Iguodala, and would allow Hollis Thompson and/or Robert Covington to transition from a starting role to a lethal bench role.
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The wild cards are the international guys, Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis, who both fit in interesting ways. Hezonja, who Julian Bravo broke down yesterday, would add offensive scoring punch from the shooting guard spot and fit pretty decently next to Tony Wroten, but there are questions about his outside shooting and attitude. Porzingis is a big, but his ability to stretch the floor with his passing and outside shooting touch could make him a better fit next to Noel and Embiid than Towns or Okafor would be.
Regardless of who the 76ers could take at spots 3-to-5, there are many more solid options that would fit Philadelphia’s current young talent better. The Sixers are almost assuredly getting a top-five pick, but there’s a good chance they won’t get one of the top two. That doesn’t mean that this past season was a failure, though. In fact, it would mean that the Sixers can end up with a player that, while less likely to be a star than Towns or Okafor, could have a better chance to reach their potential.