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Philadelphia 76ers: The Okafor omission and ranking the bigs

By Jason Blevins

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 2: Jahlil Okafor #8 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on against the Orlando Magic at Wells Fargo Center on December 2, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 2: Jahlil Okafor #8 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on against the Orlando Magic at Wells Fargo Center on December 2, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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This week we have been projecting estimated rotational statistics and minutes for the Philadelphia 76ers. Why was Jahlil Okafor omitted?

Let me say that, yes, I read the comments. I saw that many questions came up from our articles covering statistical projections for the Philadelphia 76ers this coming season asked why Okafor was not included. So let’s address this.

The tea leaves

Amir Johnson signed in July on a one-year, $11 million contract. Johnson, 30, serves as a veteran presence from the center position. This was the latest among many signs that Jahlil Okafor is unlikely to be on the Philadelphia 76ers next season.

An NBA team has, at most, 48 minutes to devote to the traditional center position. Many teams when they go small will use a power forward as thier small ball center which decreases the minutes even further.

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When attempting to project minutes distribution it is complicated by there being four centers on the roster at the moment. further complicating matters is the uncertain health history of Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor.

It is possible that the Philadelphia 76ers head into the season with a four center rotation but it would almost certainly only dress three per game.

So if we accept that there are only 48minutes to go around, who gets them?

Ranking the Bigs

So when you look at starters and backups you first should look at role and scheme. Most fans will prioritize offense. When watching a basketball game, scoring is the most accessible skillset for a casual fan to follow. Here is how the four centers rank in scoring per 36 minutes played:

NamePTS/36
Joel Embiid28.7
Jahlil Okafor18.7
Richaun Holmes16.9
Amir Johnson11.6

Simple right? Embiid is the starter and Okafor is the backup? Well not so fast.

Blocks and Defense

The first responsibility of an NBA center in today’s league is rim protection, defense and rebounding. Stylistically the Philadelphia 76ers want to be switchable on defense and have a rim protector in the middle to clean up dribble penetration. Here is how the centers rank in terms of rim protection and overall defensive rating.

NameBlock%DRTG
Joel Embiid7.7102
Richaun Holmes3.7106
Amir Johnson3.2107
Jahlil Okafor3.4110

Related Story: Statistical Expectations - Steals and Blocks

Okafor did make some progress in this area last season and Amir Johnson’s ability to block shots has diminished. What did not improve unfortunately in year two for Okafor was his defensive rating. The court awareness and positioning simply did not show signs of progress needed to project him as even an average defender moving forward.

Rebounding

The next area of critical responsibility for an NBA Center is rebounding, As teams go more and more to a perimeter based ball movement offense, collecting defensive rebounds from the interior takes on more importance.

NameTRB/36Reb%
Joel Embiid11.117
Richaun Holmes9.414.4
Amir Johnson8.212.7
Jahlil Okafor7.611.7

It’s hard to overstate how important limiting opponents second chance points is to a teams defense. Okafor’s rebounding percentage is lower than Dario Saric, Ben Simmons and roughly equal to Robert Covington. 11.7 percent simply is inadequate for an NBA center. But it gets even worse when you isolate only defensive rebounds….

NameDEF Reb%
Joel Embiid25.6
Richaun Holmes20.1
Amir Johnson17
Jahlil Okafor15.5
Dario Saric20.8
Ben Simmons26.8
Robert Covington17.9

Again, not to pile on Okafor but this level of rebounding will not get the job done.

Conclusion

The Prokafor/Nokafor debate has raged on long enough. Okafor’s defenders will point to his age and his scoring potential and make a case that the Philadelphia 76ers should not give up on him. They have a legitimate case when they talk about the team having had trouble scoring the ball in past years.

Related Story: Statistical Expectations - Rebounding

The Nokafor camp will look at what an NBA center needs to be and prioritize those metrics that a aligned with that role.

In all areas outside of raw individual scoring, Okafor ranks as third or fourth on the team. The issue is that even though Okafor is a skilled individual scorer, the team’s offensive rating with him on the floor is the lowest among the four bigs on the roster at 101. This is akin to Carmelo Anthony being a tremendous stat stuffier but not helping the Knicks win games.

Amir Johnson, although fare more limited offensively had a 117 offensive rating when he was on the floor. This equates to 16 points per 100 possessions despite needing less plays called for him.

Next: What to expect statistically in 2017-18- Assists and Turnovers

This when combined with the significant financial commitment made to Amir Johnson indicates that Plan A for the Philadelphia 76ers is to have Embiid start, Holmes backup and Johnson play spot minutes.