Entering the final 12-game stretch of the season, there are only five things on the minds of Sixers fans: Nerlens Noel‘s Rookie of the Year campaign, the Sixers first-round pick, the protected Lakers pick, the Heat pick, and the Thunder pick. Alright, that’s a lot to keep track of at once.
With Nerlens Noel’s Rookie of the Year campaign having already been covered, let’s focus on the Sixers own first-round pick and their three potential additional first-rounders.
Sixers First-Round Pick
The race for the worst record in the league could be more exciting than the race for the final three playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers currently have the third worst record with 17 wins, ahead of the Timberwolves with 15 wins and Knicks with 14 wins.
The Sixers have one more matchup with the Knicks remaining, but even if the Knicks win that game it is hard to see the Sixers catching them. The Wolves have some winnable games on their schedule, two games against the Lakers and one against Orlando, but it will be tough for them to catch the Sixers unless Philly goes winless the rest of the way.
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The Sixers biggest threat could be the Lakers who are one win ahead of them in the fourth spot after last night’s game. In the lottery, a team’s odds of landing a top-three pick drops from 46.9 percent in the third spot to 37.8 percent in the fourth spot. So at the very least, the Sixers want to finish with the third-worst record. They face off with the Lakers again next week, in what will be a huge game in terms of lottery implications.
My Prediction: Anything is possible of course, but I don’t see the Knicks or Wolves catching the Sixers. So I think that it comes down to either the third or fourth for Philly. It’s almost impossible to guess, but ultimately the Lakers will finish with a better record than the Sixers.In this scenario, the Sixers would enter the lottery with just over a 15 percent chance to land each of the top-three picks.
Los Angeles Lakers First-Round Pick (Protected Top-Five)
I touched on the Lakers above, and the pick is not looking pretty right now. This top-5 protected pick looks less likely to convey game-by-game as the Lakers blow leads in the final minutes of games.
After the big victory last night, the Lakers sit with 18 wins in the fourth spot. They are four wins behind the Orlando Magic for the fifth spot with four games in hand. If the Lakers finish in the four spot, there is only a 17.2 percent chance that the Sixers would get the pick, in comparison to a 44.8 percent chance if they finish in the five spot. If the Lakers end up finishing third ahead of the Sixers, then there would only be a four percent chance of the pick conveying.
My Prediction: The fact that the Lakers have four games in hand is promising, but the fact that they are the Lakers takes away most, if not all hope of them catching the Magic. So going off of the Sixers pick, I think that the Lakers will just miss out on the third spot and ultimately finish with the fourth-worst record. The Sixers would then need two teams to jump the Lakers into the top-3 for the pick to convey.
Miami Heat Pick (Top-10 Protected)
This top-10 protected pick has been all over the place in the past couple of weeks ranging anywhere between 11 and 16. This is as a result of the race for final three playoff spots –the Bucks recent six game losing streak has opened a third spot — in the Eastern Conference being an absolute dumpster fire. The Bucks, Heat, Hornets, Pacers, Celtics, and Nets are all in competition for those final three playoff spots.
How this pick conveys to the Sixers is not too difficult. If the Heat make the playoffs, which should be very likely, then the Sixers automatically get the pick. If the Heat miss the playoffs, then they need to have one of the four best records of the teams that do not make the playoffs. In this scenario the Sixers would get the Heat’s pick unless they jumped into the top-three in the lottery.
My Prediction: The Eastern Conference playoff race will likely come down to the final week of the season, but the Heat should be able to lock up one of those final three playoff spots. In that case the pick would convey and the Sixers would either own the 15th, 16th, or 17th pick in the Draft.
Oklahoma City Thunder First-Round Pick (Top-18 Protected)
When Russell Westbrook was going on a triple-double rampage and the Wizards were spiraling a couple weeks ago, it looked like this top-18 protected pick was a lock to convey to the Sixers. A Serge Ibaka knee surgery and KD shut down later and it doesn’t look convincing.
The Thunder are currently tied with the Wizards for the 18th and 19th spots. So this will be a two-team race in the final 11 games, with each team having something to play for. The Thunder are trying to keep a firm hold on the final playoff spot in the West and the Wizards are still in striking distance of the three-seed in the East. If both teams finish with the same record, then the pick will be determined via coin flip, in which case we would want the Wizards to win the coin flip, obviously. Keep rooting for Westbrook to destroy worlds.
My Prediction: The Thunder have a really tough eight game stretch remaining in the final couple weeks of the season. The Wizards have games against the Pacers, Hornets, Sixers(twice), Knicks, and Nets. Even though I see more ‘easy victories’ on the Wizards schedule, they have not been playing great of late. So, expect the Thunder to finish ahead of them and the number 19 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft will be owned by the 76ers.
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If my predictions are right, the Sixers will own three top-20 picks in this year’s draft. Barring the slight chance of two teams behind the Lakers jumping into the top-three, the Lakers pick would then roll over to next season where it will be top-three protected.
Of all this uncertainty, one thing is very certain: the final couple weeks of the season and the lottery will be very interesting.