A few weeks ago, it would have been a shock for the Sixers to only get two of the possible four first-round picks that they own. Heading into the final few days of the regular season, the story is more bleak. At this point, it would be amazing if the Sixers had more than their own first-round pick. Once again with all the NBA Draft Lottery stuff, Tankathon.com has us covered with their new pick odds page.
Sixers Own First-Round Pick
The Sixers loss to the Bulls on Saturday night locked the Sixers into the third-worst record in the NBA. They cannot move down from this spot. The biggest odds have this pick landing in the top-five with an outside shot (4.0 percent) that it falls to No 6.
Here are the odds:
- No. 1: 15.6 percent
- No. 2: 15.7 percent
- No. 3: 15.5 percent
- No. 4: 22.8 percent
- No. 5: 26.3 percent
A top-four pick would be the best case scenario here so the Sixers can land one of Emmanuel Mudiay, Karl-Anthony Towns or D’Angelo Russell. At this point, the pick can’t fall out of the top-six picks.
Lakers First-Round Pick (Top-Five Protected)
The Lakers pick that came over via the MCW trade is going to be a long shot to come to the Sixers this year. It turns top-three protected for the next two years and then unprotected in 2018. A team would have to jump the Lakers for the Sixers to get the pick. Keep this in mind:
Regardless, here are the odds for the Sixers getting this pick:
- No. 6: 16 percent
- No. 7: 1.2 percent
More likely to convey next year, but still odds for it to happen this season.
Miami Heat First-Round Pick (Top-10 Protected)
The Heat’s first-round pick is probably the most depressing story here. This looked like a lock to convey all season, but as the final week approaches, it’s very unlikely it happens. As Max Rappaport from Sixers.com reminds us, the Heat need to win out and Indiana or Utah need to lose their last two games to force a coin flip to see who would pick at the 10 and 11 spots.
Currently, the pick has an 8.9 percent chance to fall to No. 11 and a 0.2 percent chance to fall to No. 12.
As a reminder, the Heat pick is top-10 protected next year and then completely unprotected in 2017.
— max (@MaxOnTwitter) April 13, 2015
Getting the Heat pick at the No. 11 spot would have been the best case scenario and an amazing turn of events, but like the rest of these picks, it appears that the Sixers faithful will have to wait until the 2016 Draft for this pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Pick (Top-18 Protected)
With the Pacers beating the OKC Thunder last night, the probability of the Sixers getting the Thunder’s top-18 protected first-round pick this year was shot down completely.
With the Pacers’ win over OKC, Thunder pick now cannot fall to 19. Will be top-15 protected next year.
— max (@MaxOnTwitter) April 13, 2015
The pick being top-15 protected next year gives it a high probability that it’ll come over next season, just like the Heat pick. The Thunder should have Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka back 100 percent healthy which will almost automatically make them a playoff team in the Western Conference.
The Silver Lining
So, obviously in the present, the Sixers not landing any of these first-round picks (outside of their own) is the worst news possible. Fans wanted to see these picks convey this year and find out who they were getting in return for the players traded away (MCW, Thad, etc). But, there is a silver lining.
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Heading into this summer, the Sixers will potentially have three first-round picks to play with. Philadelphia could easily package these in a sign-and-trade for a superstar, or use them to straight up trade for a superstar that could be entering free agency in the summer of 2016. The saving grace from having all of these picks, is that the Sixers can spend to get a superstar, while still keeping their own pick. Unfortunately, guys like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler are under restricted free agency this summer, so the only way the Sixers can get them is by offering them a contract sheet.
Keeping all the picks just keeps them as assets that are still living. A future first-round pick is still more valuable than a rookie on a rookie-scale contract. While this doesn’t seem like the best in the right now, if it winds up netting the Sixers a future star, it could pay off dividends in the long run.