The Sixer Sense
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Rising Cap Hinders Sixers Chances at Top Free Agent

By Eric Mullin

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Since the beginning of the season, a hot topic of discussion in the NBA has been the of effects that the new TV deal will have on the league. The deal, which was signed this past October, will take effect in the 2016-17 season and will pay the league $24 billion over the next nine seasons.

With so much money coming to the league and the salary cap bound to be substantially increased, the league was faced with a tough task after signing the deal. They were either going to have to convince the NBA Players Association to smooth the cap’s increase in small increments over the length of the deal, or the cap was going to have a significant increase in the next few seasons.

After a full-seasons worth of discussion and the NBA Players Association ultimately rejecting the league’s final cap smoothing proposal, the NBA finally released their salary cap projections for the next three seasons last week:

These projections show that the cap will be considerably increased over the next few seasons, instead of having it smoothed out. Having this much of an increase in the salary cap over the next few seasons has huge implications on this upcoming free agent class. Sixers fans might think that this has no bearing on their team, as they do not have any big free-agents and are still re-building, but it actually does.

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As Sam Hinkie enters his third year as the Sixers General Manager, he has yet to be a player in free agency. Rather, Hinkie has almost exclusively re-built this Sixers team through the draft and through trades. This is mainly due to Hinkie not wanting to take any shortcuts in his rebuild of the Sixers. But this offseason was the first time that it made sense for the Sixers to potentially make some noise in free agency.

Regardless of who the Sixers draft with their top-six pick, they are thin on the wing. They have some nice, young role players in Robert Covington and Hollis Thompson, but they do not have any elite or two-way players on the wing. This upcoming free agent class offers three wing players that would be perfect fits for the Sixers system in Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Khris Middleton.

Each of Leonard, Butler, and Middleton are restricted free-agents, which means the Sixers can only offer them a four-year deal while the teams they each respectively play can offer them a five-year deal. The team that they currently play for also has the right to match any offer sheet that the player signs with another team.

Since each of the three players are coming off of their rookie deal, their max contract number is 25% of next year’s salary cap. So if the Sixers were to ‘max-out’ one of these players this offseason, the contract would be a four-year deal worth around $67 million.

Had the cap been smoothed out, the Sixers would have at least had a shot at signing one of these wings. In all three cases, the teams would have most likely matched the offer, but it would have at least forced other teams into a corner to make a decision. But with the cap going up the Sixers almost have no shot at landing one of these young wings this offseason for a few reasons.

The first reason being that with the cap going up in the following two seasons, it doesn’t make sense for players to sign long-term max-contracts this summer when they can instead wait one or two more years and earn a lot more money. For example, if Jimmy Butler signs a one-year deal from the Bulls this offseason, he can then enter the following offseason as an unrestricted free-agent eligible for a five-year contract worth well over $100 million. The same goes for both Kawhi Leonard and Khris Middleton.

Apr 4, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) during the game against the Orlando Magic at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Orlando won 97-90. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Secondly, if a player does indeed sign a max contract this summer, there is no reason for a team not to match it because the deal would be a bargain for final few years of the deal. For example, say Khris Middleton wanted to take the security of a four-year max deal this summer, since he is considered by many to be in the free-agent tier below Leonard and Butler. Even if the Bucks were on the fence about whether they believe Middleton is a max-player, that contract would count towards a small fraction of their cap and be a bargain contract in the final few years of the deal.

So while any of these three players would be exciting additions to the Sixers, it is unlikely that Philly will be able to land them with the cap skyrocketing in the next few years. The only real shot that the Sixers would have at them is if one of the player’s current team was not interested in signing them to a one-year deal at the max number. If Leonard and Butler do sign a one-year deal, then the Sixers can make a run at them next summer when they are both unrestricted free agents.

Anything is possible, but Sixers fans will probably have to wait one more year before the Sixers go after a big name in free agency.

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