Two side notes: First, there are 29 different possible outcomes for the Sixers. I am only looking at a few of them. Second, thank you to ZeroCool79 from the Sixers reddit page for the odds for the lottery pick combinations.
The NBA Draft Lottery will be held tonight and for Sixers fans it’s one of the biggest nights of the year. Philadelphia could see it’s future shift dramatically depending upon how the ping-pong balls bounce, so let’s take a look at some of the best and worst possible outcomes for the Sixers.
Sixers No. 1-3, Lakers No. 6, and Heat No.11 (0.73 percent chance)
The chances of this happening are so minuscule, but it’s still fun to think about. If this were to happen, the only normal reaction would be to run around your apartment/house/street/neighborhood/town and scream. Perhaps a semi-peaceful riot? Getting arrested for disorderly conduct is not only acceptable in this instance, but it’s also encouraged.
My ideal draft scenario would be Karl-Anthony Towns (No. 1), Mario Hezonja (No. 6), and Sam Dekker (No. 11). Even with Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel, Towns is too good to pass up. With the other picks, Hezonja is a guy with a ton of upside due to his athleticism and shooting ability, and Dekker can play on the wing and does everything well.
Sixers No. 1-3 and Lakers No. 6 OR Sixers No. 1-3 and Heat No. 11 (5.12 percent chance)
Once again, not a terrific chance of either of these happening if you believe in the “numbers.” But looking on the optimistic side, there’s a greater chance of this happening than the Sixers falling to the No. 6 pick, which has a four percent chance of happening.
Also, I would not trade the third and sixth pick for the first pick. Towns is a level above the rest of the field, but he isn’t in Anthony Davis or Blake Griffin territory either.
Sixers No. 1 (15.6 percent)
Obviously, this is the simplest of outcomes. If the Sixers are lucky enough to win the lottery, they have to take Karl-Anthony Towns even if he isn’t the best fit. As much potential as Embiid has, he still hasn’t logged a single minute in the NBA. But even if Embiid is healthy, having three potential All-Star caliber big men won’t hurt. The prospects of trading one of them down the line will still be there.
Sixers No. 2 (15.7 percent)
This is probably the most interesting spot for the Sixers to fall because now the choice between taking the best player (Okafor) and the better fits (Mudiay/Russell) is much tougher. Honestly, I wouldn’t envy Hinkie’s decision here. While Okafor is the second best prospect in this draft, I don’t like his fit with Embiid and Noel. Maybe a trade down from this spot if either of the two teams below the Sixers like Okafor enough? Like I said, difficult decision.
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Then again, Hinkie could have Mudiay rated above Okafor making this entire point moot. Still, it’d be a fun lead up to the draft for Sixers fans because you know Hinkie won’t tip his hand.
Sixers No. 3 (15.6 percent)
The probable “Russell vs. Mudiay” spot. It would essentially guarantee the Sixers would have the option to draft one of the top two point guard prospects in the draft. For more on Russell and Mudiay, go read this discussion I had with Trevor Magnotti.
Sixers No. 4 (22.6 percent)
This is where it starts to become disappointing, but still not a terrible spot to land at either. When I look at this draft, I really like the top four of Towns, Okafor, Russell, and Mudiay. So as long as the Sixers stay in the top four, and really have the option of taking Russell or Mudiay, I’d be content.
Sixers No. 5 and Lakers No. 6 OR Sixers No. 5 and Heat No. 11 (11 percent)
If the Sixers do fall to five, having the Lakers or Heat pick convey would make a bitter pill a bit sweeter to swallow. And really, if either of these do end up happening, it certainly isn’t the worst thing in the world to add two high-level prospects.
With the fifth and sixth picks, I’d look at Mario Hezonja (probably the only guy that could really make a run at cracking my top four) and probably Justise Winslow. I don’t want to go too in-depth on Winslow right now, but I’m a big fan of his defense and controlled (for the most part) intensity. If he can prove capable of hitting NBA threes, he’s an extremely intriguing prospect.
Sixers No. 5 or No. 6 (30.5 percent)
First thing first, the Sixers falling three spots down to No. 6 would be the most Sixers thing ever. Right up there with Matt Geiger and Willie Green.
If the Sixers go home from the lottery with the fifth or sixth pick, that wouldn’t be fun. This draft is about the top four, but more specifically Russell or Mudiay. I’m not saying the Sixers need to draft one of those two. I’ll trust whatever Hinkie and company do, within reason, because so far they haven’t given me a reason to not trust them. I’d just feel more comfortable with a Justise Winslow pick if it meant Hinkie was picking him over Russell or Mudiay, and not because they are off the board. Makes sense?
Really though, I’d probably be able to talk myself into the fifth pick relatively quickly (as I piece my shattered dreams back together). The initial reaction of seeing the Sixers logo pop up at No. 5 would feel like a punch to the gut, but the top of this draft isn’t as set as it was for last year’s. It was so imperative for the Sixers to land a top-three pick to secure one of Embiid, Wiggins, or Parker. With this draft class, there seems to be a lot more variables. Guys like Willie Cauley-Stein, Mario Hezonja, or Justise Winslow (among others) could all jump into the top four. So there would still be a decent shot at landing Russell or Mudiay, even if the Sixers do fall to the fifth pick.
If it’s the sixth pick — man, that would be rough. There would still be a chance that Russell or Mudiay would fall, but that’s probably nothing more than desperate hope. Luckily, there’s only a four percent chance of this happening so any potential concerns are probably all for naught.
Good (#OneSixEleven) or bad (#Six), we’ll have a clearer picture of what the future holds for the Sixers after Tuesday night. It’s only fitting to end my mostly incoherent rambling with a quote by the immortal Marc Zumoff: “Hang on Malik, we’re coming in for a landing.”
Keep it here for all of your lottery related updates tomorrow night, also.
You can follow Patrick on twitter (@GoodDudePat) for Sixers nonsense.