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Does Sam Hinkie Need To Learn When To Hold Em?

Bret Stuter
Bret Stuter

The Sixer Sense

Sep 29, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie talks with reporters during media day at the Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Does Sam Hinkie Need To Learn When To Hold Em?

"“You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em.  Know when to walk away, and know when to run. You never count your money when your sitting at the table.  There’ll be time enough for counting when the dealings done.” – lyrics by Don Schlitz"

Now that I’ve embedded the 1978 Kenny Rodgers song lyrics into your thoughts, it’s time to take a look at the nearly unblemished record of Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie. Since his hiring by the Sixers in the spring of 2013, the team has been on one incredibly wild ride. Not much excitement on the basketball court was nearly compensated by the personnel moves made off the court.

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The road to today has been littered with talented basketball players who were traded away. For argument’s sake, Hinkie has traded established NBA players (Holiday, Hawes, and Young) as well as some up and coming talent ( Michael Carter-Williams,K.J. McDaniels) for Mbah a Moute, Canaan, Shved, Noel, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric (likely locked up under contract in Europe until 2016 at the earliest), and other young players and future draft picks.

The saying is “you’ve got to spend some to make some” was never more true than the path chosen by the Sixers.  But the idea that every move is an upgrade, an enhancement, or an improvement is absolutely naive.  It’s a gamble, a wager of placing value at risk in the hopes of trying to receive more value.   But everyone in a poker game has the same idea… so someone walks away as a winner and someone else walks away as a loser.

The life of a gambler is NOT one that gives much time to assessing how did it turn out.   It is based entirely on what you know at the time, and what you do with that knowledge.  In his own words, Sam Hinkie described the process this way

"“It’s not about how it turns out. It’s about what you knew at the time, and how that plays out for your particular team and their particular team. It’s a really tough way to live to judge it as good or bad for you or others based on how it turns out, because sometimes lots of things happen that you couldn’t have known.” – Sam Hinkie discussing the Jrue Holiday trade"

So let’s look at some of the players we’ve given up.

Next: Jrue Holiday

April 18, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday (11, right) fouls Golden State Warriors guard

Stephen Curry

(30) in front of Pelicans forward

Anthony Davis

(23, left) during the fourth quarter in game one of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Pelicans 106-99. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Jrue Holiday

Its tough to find flaws with the results of the Jrue Holiday trade.  Holiday was the lone tradeable asset on the Sixers when Hinkie arrived.   That asset and the 42 pick was quickly converted into Nerlen Noels and the 2014 first round pick (eventually number twelve that netted Dario Saric, who continues to play in Europe until at last guess 2016).

It was the mechanics of the trade where the deal’s flaws surfaced.   The Sixers had to pay $3 Million to the New Orleans Pelicans for failure to disclose the fact that Holiday had several stress fractures in his lower right leg.  Those injuries have limited his playing time with the Pelicans – only 74 games in the past two years.

It’s tough to say the Sixers didn’t get the best of that trade.  The deal also gave the Sixers room and reason to pick  Michael Carter-Williams with the eleventh pick who became the NBA rookie of the year in the 2013-14 season.

But what of Jrue?  As indicated, he’s played 74 games for the Pelicans, and been shooting a 44.65% FG accuracy, and averaged 14.58 PPG.  Reading up on Jrue’s production since the 76ers almost makes me feel bad for their fans – so many high hopes and expectations have been met with disappointment.   Holiday runs the team when he’s on the court, but he’s only getting involved in 45% of their games, and limited in minutes in the games he’s playing in.

Holiday is working hard to come back.  He’s had surgery to place a metal rod in his tibia to facilitate the healing process.  In 2014, the Pelicans debated shutting him down completely.  Even to this day, he’s experiencing pain in his lower leg.

Holiday was a great player for the 76ers.  But with so much to overcome, I cannot foresee his achieving the potential that was believed to be present in that trade.

Sixers grade:  B+  (had to lower the grade for the deception)

Apr 14, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Spencer Hawes (10) against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Spencer Hawes

Spencer Hawes was a big man in the middle who was a good scorer for the 76ers.  He averaged 13 PPG and 8.5 RPG when the team traded him.  So why do a trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers, especially since he was a productive player and Cleveland gave up two second round draft picks?

The Sixers were motivated to move Hawes .   He had a huge $6.6 million salary, was in the last year of his contract, and was unlikely to return to the team.  The Caveliers were in the thick of a playoff hunt.  It was their hope that a big man who could score would get them into the mix in the 2013-14 season.  They fell short by five games.  Hawes then signed onto the Los Angeles Clippers, where his scoring dropped to 5.8 PPG and his rebounds plummeted from 8.5 to 3.5.  In 2015, Hawes will play for the Charlotte Hornets.

Hawes has not enjoyed the same success elsewhere that he had for the 76ers.  On his third team, he’s trying to find a team where he will enjoy the same success he enjoyed in Philly.

For the Sixers, the player was moving on, and the team was lucky to get anything for a player who likely would have moved on with no compensation.   What the team ended up with is an affordable center in Henry Sims, who is productive enough to warrant some minutes, and two second round picks that resulted in Jerami Grant and Vasilije Masic.  While Masic has remained in the european theatre playing for the German team FC Bayern Munich, Grant made the roster and contributed 6.3 PPG and 3.0 RPG in 2014.  Meanwhile, Sims had chimed in with 8.0 PPG  and 4.9 RPG of his own.

Sixers grade:  A-

Apr 22, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Brooklyn Nets forward Thaddeus Young (30) argues a call with referee Zach Zarba (28) during game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 96-91. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

Thaddeus Young

Thaddeus Young was, and is, a very popular player to the Sixers fanbase.  A player who remains productive with a team when the overall team is in a decline wins a special place in the hearts of the fans.  Thad was such a player.   He continued to show up day in and day out, and his numbers were consistent and on an upward trend.

But he was a very good player on a worsening team.   Trade rumors were frequent and persistent.  Eventually, the terms of Young’s contract forced the issue into getting something now, or getting nothing later.   Following the trade, Thad spent a year with the Minnesota Timberwolves, and last season with the Brooklyn Nets.   His numbers were good, averaging 14.3 PPG and 5.1 RPG for the Wolves, and 13.8 PPG and 5.9 RPG for the Nets.  But once more, his star shined more brightly over Philly than afterwards.

What did the Sixers get in return?  Well, they received a first round draft pick.  But it was a top ten protected pick in 2015, is protected top ten pick in 2016, and is unprotected in 2017.  They also got Luc Mbah A Moute, a veteran player who played some for the Sixers, but who explored free agency.  He signed onto the Sacremento Kings, but failed the physical.   He had a 9.9 PPG and a 4.9 RPG average for the Sixers in his lone season with the team.  They also received Alex Shved, a player who has played on four NBA teams in three years, three of which were all in the 2014-15 season.  Shved played just 17 games for us, and a 9.9 PPG and 1.3 RPG average.   Shved was traded after the season, despite playing point guard, the position of need this year.

Shved was a bench player, make no mistake.  But the 76ers are a team in rebuild mode, and with a turnstyle of players, someone who would be both a constant and dependable would have had a great deal of value for the team. Shved can come off the bench, direct traffic, and sink a shot with good accuracy.  Every team needs someone like that.  The Houston Rockets did, and become part of the three team trade that sent a second round pick  to the Sixers. What the Sixers did with that pick was select shooting guard JP Tokoto.

Sixers grade:  B- (had they kept Shved for this season, grade would be an A)

Next: Michael Carter-Williams

Apr 30, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) defends during the game against the Chicago Bulls in game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Chicago won 120-66. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Carter-Williams

Michael Carter-Williams has already been mentioned in this article. He was the player selected after the Sixers traded away Jrue Holiday.  He also happened to be the 2013-14 NBA Rookie Of The Year.  So what was the problem?

Well, he was a point guard who could score.  And the trade was shocking, none moreso than the player himself

So the decision was unexpected, but was it unwarranted? MCW was a point guard with strengths and weaknesses. He shot 26.03% on his jump shots, a league low. And he coughed up the ball 4.2 times a game. On a team with plenty of talent, those weaknesses can be overlooked. On a team trying to rebuild, it’s the type of ball insecurity that plagues a team with less ability to compensate.

The reward to the Sixers?  The Los Angeles Lakers first round pick, top five protected in 2015, top three protected in 2016 and 2017, and falls to unprotected in 2018.   While the pick would have been superb if the Sixers had hit in 2015 and been in the hunt for D’Angelo Russell at three, and Emmanuel Mudiay at six or seven.

Ah… but the words of the guru work well here.  You only go with what you know at the time.   MCW may be a significant NBA player in his career, but the sense we all have is wrong fit with what the team is attempting to do now.

Sixers grade:  B+

Next: K.J. McDaniels

Feb 7, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard K.J. McDaniels (14) looks to shoot during the fourth quarter of the game against the Charlotte Hornets at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers beat the Hornets 89-81. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

K.J. McDaniels

K.J. McDaniels was a good player in a Sixers uniform. But as is the resounding theme, it’s difficult to retain good players on a team that is rebuilding.  He scored 9.2 PPG and generated 3.8 RPG.  He was athletic, understood the game, and has a huge upside.  But he was on a one year contract and the team was convinced that, having showcased his talents to the league, he would not be returning.  So they got something for him before he left.

Who that was is Isaiah Canaan.   We’ve taken a good look up Canaan’s projection for the Sixers in a recent article here:
Isaiah Canaan Is Player To Watch In 2015-16

The Sixers also picked up a second round draft pick. which translated into Bowling Green’s power forward Richaun Holmes.  Holmes is a curious prospect.  He’s been a player who has been under the radar, but has some good potential.

I like what  I’ve read and viewed on the young man.  But perhaps the best quote is from his former coach, Chris Jans.

"“Richaun is a great all-around player. That’s what I love the most about him. When a lot of guys make first-team All-MAC, it’s because of their scoring, but Richaun has developed into an all-around player. He scores inside, he knocks 3s down, he puts it on the floor, he rebounds the ball at a high level, and he’s the main reason we have been fairly successful on the defensive end.”"

So the Sixers give up a player with good upside for two players with good upside?  Oh… and by the way… the reaction grades for the trade gave the Rockets an A, and the Sixers a C.  But McDaniels didn’t exactly light it up in a Rockets unifrom, and Canaan kinda did.  So….. turnabout is fair play

Sixers grade:  A

Next: Is Sam Hinkie All That?

Is Sam Hinkie All That?

So it comes down to this. How lucky can you feel if you gamble against Sam Hinkie? I won’t lie, I truly expected to find several trades where I could point to the transaction and hype how wrong it was to make that trade.

But I couldn’t. Huh? No, I just can’t. Knowing that the trades were generally surrendering players who likely would have moved on, it says something about a GM who thinks in terms of getting something for nothing. In a gambler’s world, you need a gambler.

Sam Hinkie, I trust the process. Now, I truly do.

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Bret Stuter

Bret Stuter

Bret Stuter is the site expert for Ramblin Fan who has covered the Los Angeles Rams for 5 years. Swept up into loving professional sports from a family that listened to games on the radio, he is at home cheering for HC Sean McVay and the Rams. Articles have been featured on B/R, Fox Sports, CBS Sports, Sporting News, and Washington Post. Bret loves to fish, and watch games at sports bars over pizza.