Preseason NBA Power Rankings 16-30

Jun 19, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Confetti surrounds the stage during the Golden State Warriors 2015 championship celebration at the Henry J. Kaiser Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Preseason NBA Power Rankings

With the majority of the NBA rosters set for 2015, and with the optimism of new faces destined to chase perennial dreams, its time for me to don my swami garb and predict the NBA season. Similar to many other websites this time of year, I will use the deliver the future via the NBA Power Rankings. In short, I try to project the records of each team in the 2015/16 season.

To do this, I attempted to digest and lay out the seasons for each of the 30 NBA teams, all the while teams tweaked their rosters. But even more-so, I then had to run the projected records against a custom-designed computer program which identified when my wins and my losses were out of balance.

Let’s face it. This year saw nearly each team change its roster significantly. While this won’t exactly place the Timberwolves in the discussion for an NBA championship this year, there is reason for fans of each team to be optimistic. I tried to use that optimism, objectively, in assessing how far the lower tier teams in the league would improve.

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I also made use of Sports Illustrated win share analytical tool.  This early in the process there is still a margin of error that cannot be eliminated.  Still, this will give NBA fans, and specifically Philadelphia 76ers fans, a starting point to judge the season from. The changes this year to individual team rosters were enough to cloud the crystal ball significantly. Still, it’s not much of a forecast if it comes out the day before the season ends, so let’s get to it.

Next: Timberwolves

Jul 11, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard

(8) dribbles the ball against the defense of Chicago Bulls guard Tyrus McGee (25) during an NBA Summer League game at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

30. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Record: 22-60

Coming off the NBA’s worst record at 16-66, there really is no place to go but up for this team, is there?   Well, considering they had the first pick in the 2015 NBA draft, they actually might have.

But they made the correct choice in selecting Karl-Anthony Towns.  In fact, they had a good off-season.  They made the right choice in selecting the 6’11” 250 pound center from the University of Kentucky, despite it being the obvious pick.  They added to their roster by selecting Minnesota native 6’1″ 190 pound point guard in Tyrus Jones.   Jones is the Duke point guard who directed floor traffic on the court in their championship run.

Who will teach these young players?  Kevin Garnett returns to the Wolves and will serve the dual role of player and mentor.   So why are the Timberwolves projected dead last in the NBA?  They are missing one thing.  Time.   The learning curve will work against them as they try to assemble a team from the pieces out of the draft.   The future looks good for this team.  The present?  Not so much.

Next: Knicks

Jul 14, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; New York Knicks forward

(17) forward

(55) and guard

(13) celebrate after scoring on a play against the 76ers during an NBA Summer League game at Thomas & Mack Center. The Knicks won the game in overtime, 84-81. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

29. New York Knicks
Projected Record: 25-57

You can pretty much sum up the sentiment from the entire New York Knicks fan base in the rant from ESPN Stephen A. Smith following the selection of 7’1″ 220 pound Latvian center/power forward Kristaps Porzingus.

Stephen A. Smith had more to say in this video segment about the 2015 NBA Draft.  The reality is that the Knicks selected fourth in a three player draft.  Smith elaborates that he believes Phil Jackson joined the New York Knicks just for a paycheck, and is already acting as though he’s retired. And maybe he’s right. But the team did manage to retain Carmelo Anthony, and managed to deal Tim Hardaway Jr. for a promising point guard in Jarian Grant.

While the moves were good for the long range, they don’t do much for the Knicks this year. They do improve, but in this NBA, that isn’t always enough.

Next: Nuggets

Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA;

(China) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number seven overall pick to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

28. Denver Nuggets
Projected Record: 26-56

Some teams rise, some teams fall. So is the case of our first team in the power rankings who will likely fall this season.

The Nuggets said goodbye to point guard Ty Lawson, while retaining backup Jameer Nelson. Nelson may remain in the backup role, as the Nuggets selected 6’5″ 200 pound point guard (PG) in Emmanuel Mudiay. Mudiay was projected to be a player the Sixers might select, as he was one of the top PGs in the draft.

The Nuggets parting with Lawson may be something to improve the team over time, but will certainly cause them heartache this season.   Coming off a mere 30 wins in 2014/15,  this is one team I could see falling further.  The team did in fact struggle last season, but managed to end strong in a 2-4 finish that could have been 3-3 when they lost in overtime to a very good Dallas Mavericks team.

They won’t finish strongly this year.

Next: Nets

May 1, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Four year old Brooklyn Nets fan Camden Strootman of Long Island reacts during the closing minutes of the fourth quarter of game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs between the Brooklyn Nets and the Atlanta Hawks at Barclays Center. The Hawks defeated the Nets 111-87 to win the series 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

27. Brooklyn Nets
Projected Record: 28-54

Another team at risk of a major tumble this season is the Brooklyn Nets.  The team needed to make improvements this off-season, and in my opinion failed to do so.    Buying out the contract of point guard Derron Williams doesn’t improve the team one bit, and turning over the point guard responsibilities to Jarrett Jack and Shane Larkin doesn’t excite me about this team.

The team will be looking to 7’0″ 245 pound center Andrea Bargnani for scoring should oft-injured center Brook Lopez fall again this year.  But Bargnani won’t deliver a Lopez like presence, and cannot make up the difference with shots from outside of the arc.

The Nets follow the health or injury of Lopez.   Sorry Nets fans, but I think Lopez will be injured again this season

Next: Lakers

Jan 21, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans center

(3) rebounds over Los Angeles Lakers guard

(9) during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Lakers 96-80. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

26. L.A.Lakers
Projected Record: 29-53

The perennial powerhouse.  The land of LA love.  Hollywood’s Haven.  Never in my wildest childhood dreams could I imagine the LA Lakers would be a team struggling to recapture former glory.  And it is this disbelief which makes it so difficult for the team to right the ship.

The problem is Kobe Bryant.  Yes, you heard me.   The L.A. Lakers team is a team built around an overpriced and waning skills player.   The disbelief paralyzes this team into taking the steps necessary to change that dynamic.   The Titanic sank because nobody thought it could, and did not take steps to avoid dangerous waters.   So too are the Lakers running into rough seas, primarily because nobody believes they could.

Coming off a 21-61 season, it’s all I can do not to project them at the same record this year.  Perhaps the mirage of “this team can turn it around on a dime” is affecting me as well.    They still have a very good player in Kobe Bryant.   They drafted the top point guard in the draft, 6’5″ 195 pound D’Angelo Russell, and picked up solid bench help with Lou Williams and Brandon Bass.

But you can almost feel this team, desperate to turn it around instantly, made moves that a contender trying to round out their roster would do.   The team is bad, and if Kobe Bryant stays  out due to his shoulder injury, you will see just how incredibly bad they truly are.  Bryant is expected to come back in September.  I believe there will not be any rush  for him to do so, particularly if the team feels they have little chance of post-season.

Next: Magic

Apr 15, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Orlando Magic guard

(4) drives against Brooklyn Nets guard

(8) during the third quarter at Barclays Center. Brooklyn Nets won 101-88. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

25. Orlando Magic
Projected Record: 30-52

The Orlando Magic is a team on the mend from their own rebuild.  The off-season did not yield much in the way of “superstar”, but it did result in the team keeping the services of the young and improving Tobias Harris.  Coming from the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2012/13 season, Harris immediately set up shop on the Magic roster as a good scoring small forward (SF). Not only a leader on the court, he’s evolving into a fan favorite.

Coming off a 25-57 season, the team improves to a 30 win as the young talent grows into their roles in the NBA.   They could be better if their young bucks exceed my estimates in their learning curve. But then again, they could finish worse.

Next: Kings

Apr 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings center

(5) watches a shot against Los Angeles Lakers center

(50) in the first half during the game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

24. Sacramento Kings Projected Record: 31-51 The Sacramento Kings confuse me.   They gave up on 2014 first round point guard Nik Stauskas (“Sauce Castillo“) in a move to shed salary cap by dumping Sauce, Jason Thompson, and Carl Landry onto the Sixers for a second round draft pick.  Then they give up a promising point guard by the name of Ray McCallum  to the San Antonio Spurs for a second round draft pick.  They then paid a $10 Million lease for a one-year deal for point guard Rajon Rondo. Not many teams come up short when trading with the Sixers nowadays.  The Kings did.   While I can see the team failing to even get to the 29 win plateau from the previous year, I do like the pick-up of center Kosta Koufos to back up high scoring DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings were in a tough spot this year.  But I think they made it much tougher on themselves.

Next: Trailblazers

Apr 29, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard

greets Portland Trailblazers guard CJ McCollum (3) after game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Memphis defeated Portland 99-93. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

23. Portland Trailblazers Projected Record: 32-50 Shocked? The 2014 starting roster of PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nic Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge and C Robin Lopez is no more. Only franchise point guard Damian Lillard remains, and his new teammates will be SG Gerald Henderson, SF Al-Farouq Aminu, PF Ed Davis and PF Mason Plumlee. How do you even attempt to predict their chemistry, their ability to work together when they are only now making their introductions to one another?   Well the algorithm goes something like this.   Begin by taking last season’s win total (51) and divide by 2 (25.5).  Then factor in the win contribution of Lillard to this team (+3.5).  Then factor in the success factor of the team in the last 3 years (33,54,51) And then spin the wheel.   I simply cannot fathom how a team can repeat success in this NBA with a virtually entirely new team.  So I haven’t.

Next: Sixers

Jul 14, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Scottie Wilbekin (18) celebrates after a scoring play in an NBA Summer League game against the Knicks at Thomas and Mack Center. The Knicks won the game in overtime, 84-81. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

22. Philadelphia 76ers Projected Record: 34-48 Many experts and fans expect this team to tank in 2015.  I do not.   Many believe the team will not play competitively until they manage to obtain the first draft pick in the NBA draft. I do.   Even my trusted and very savvy colleagues at The Sixer Sense project the Sixers to finish near the bottom of the NBA pile.   Have you begun to debate my objective analysis yet?  Well, the team has made subtle improvements to the roster which will help dramatically.   They picked the best player available at three in the NBA draft in Jahlil Okafor.  We even mentioned in a previous slide how the Sixers dealt with the Sacramento Kings, and  have big expectations for Nik “Sauce Castillo” Stauskas. But the wild card to the season is the return of scoring ace Pierre “Pappy Jack” Jackson.  Pappy suffered an Achilles heel injury in summer league of 2014, and has slowly rehabbed back to health.  With a starting lineup that could look like PF Nerlens Noel, PG Pierre Jackson, SG Nik Stauskas, C Jahlil Okafor, and SF Robert Covington , the team will be well rounded and have improved both offensively and defensively.   Still, how can I predict such a massive jump for a team that needed two years to reach a similar win number? This is the first year where the draft will actually show up on the court.  With the addition of Stauskas, Okafor and Noel will not have to shoulder the team on their individual shoulders.   And I do believe that Jackson will regain his scoring proficiency.

Next: Pacers

Apr 15, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Indiana Pacers guard

(3) dribbles the ball against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

21. Indiana Pacers Projected Record: 36-46 The Indiana Pacers is a team that is never bad enough to go all out into rebuild, but is never good enough to penetrate far into the playoffs. So they are making subtle changes on the fly.   Losing PF David West and C Roy Hibbert will definitely hurt the Pacers defense, which came in at third best in the league.   Heralding the arrival of PG Monta Ellis, SF Chase Buddinger, and C Jordan Hill, the team feels like it is shifting to the offensive side of the ball. The difficult part of any transition, done on the fly, is the trend to drop faster at what you were good at than to improve at what you were bad at.  With that in mind, I have the Pacers oscillating once more to drop slightly. It’s what their trend is right now.

Next: Pistons

Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA;

(Arizona) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number eight overall pick to the Detroit Pistons in the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

20. Detroit Pistons Projected Record: 39-43 The Detroit Pistons are getting better.  In picking up PF Ersan Ilyasova and PF Marcus Morris, they now have two of the better shooters from outside of the arc.  That should open lanes up for C Andre Drummond and PG Reggie Jackson.

With Jackson under contract, he joins C Andre Drummond as the keystones to the team roster.

But the real key to the season is Jackson, whose 27 game sample gave the Pistons plenty of confidence to sign him up to a five year $80 Million contract.  If Jackson earns the salary, this will be a good team, perhaps better than my estimate.  If Jackson takes the “I got paid so don’t bother me” option, this team not only is worse, but it is in a difficult hole to dig out of.

Next: Bucks

Apr 30, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks fans hold up a sign during the game against the Chicago Bulls in game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Chicago won 120-66. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

19. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Record: 40-42

The Cinderella team of the 2014/15 season was most certainly that of the Milwaukee Bucks.  Rising from the ashes of a 15-67 season, they needed just one year to finish at the magical .500 mark at 41-41.  BUT….  with every Cinderella story, once you get to the dance, it’s awfully difficult to keep your glass slippers on.

This off-season, the team has signed center Greg Monroe.  Some herald the arrival as the missing link to long-term success, and in some ways, I can see their point.   But the man in the middle blocks virtually nothing, which means that when he is on the court, pressing inside to the basket has a much better chance of success.

And he averages over 30 minutes a game.

No, I don’t see this as a major “OMG!” issue.  But with a team so recently returned to the playoffs, it’s enough to give me thoughts that this year will be one of retrenching.  Perhaps everything will work out quite smoothly, and the team will threaten to go advance in the playoffs.

But that is a limb that is too shaky for even me to walk out on.

Next: Jazz

Apr 15, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Utah Jazz guard

(13) dunks the ball during the second quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

18. Utah Jazz
Projected Record: 40-42

The Utah Jazz is a team about as close to “autopilot” as they come.   With a lineup of C Rudy Gobert, PF Derrick Favors, SF Gordon Hayward, PG Trey Burke, and SG Dante Exum all sitting at 25 years of age or younger, the only true “management” obligation is to keep them healthy, trained, and watch the roster mature into one of the better teams in the NBA.

At 38-42 last season, the team could improve even more if any of the players has a breakout year.    I simply see more of the “steady as she goes” track.

Next: Mavericks

Apr 28, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward

(41) spins to shoot the ball during the fourth quarter as Houston Rockets forward

(1) defends in game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Mavericks 103-94 to win the series 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

17. Dallas Mavericks
Projected Record: 41-41

The Dallas Mavericks are and have been a very good team.  But many presume great teams simply are great, and do not modify their projections no matter what happens to the team roster, and ultimately, chemistry.

The Mavericks no longer boast the services of PG Monta Ellis, C Tyson Chandler, nor PG Rajon Rondo.  While they did acquire c Zaza Pachulia, and PG Deron Williams, I’m not buying the story that the team will simply take the new players and reach the heights of the 2014/15 season.

I see more of a gentle descent, perhaps back to the .500 of the 2012/13 season.  Sorry Mavericks fans… but I don’t think you can replace the engine of a Lamborghini with that of a Jeep and remain the fastest race car on the track.

Next: Suns

Jul 20, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Phoenix Suns forward

(55) argues a call during the NBA Summer League Final against San Antonio at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

16. Phoenix Suns
Projected Record: 41-41

The Phoenix Suns made efforts in free agency to show that they are definitely in the heat of the playoff hunt, at least in this off-season.  They failed to attract LaMarcus Aldridge, who went to the San Antonio Spurs.  Instead, they had to settle for former Maverick C Tyson Chandler.   But if he is the Maverick’s loss, then he is most assuredly the Suns’ gain.

Already an offensive team, Chandler should clog up the middle for their opponents, while improving their own offensive rebounds.   The difference to the Suns with Chandler starting at center is four games.

So that’s what they got.

Next: Heat

Jun 16, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors fans celebrate in the courtyard after a watch party for game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Okay. We’re halfway there!

You should stretch a little. Go raid the fridge if you are home, or head to the nearest vending machine for a cold beverage.
Things are heating up now, as we are approaching the upper tiers of the NBA.  In fact…   Let’s just take a break here and pick things up with the next article. The rankings have already been set.

Let us know your comments – both with the lower half of the NBA, and in trying to guess what the order of the top tier will be. If you guess right, I will tweet your name out and you will get a cold case of practically nothing to show for it.