Jul 14, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard
(18) celebrates after a scoring play in an NBA Summer League game against the Knicks at Thomas and Mack Center. The Knicks won the game in overtime, 84-81. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Sixers Are Better? We’re Better! You Bet!
The lyrics to the song from a rock band The Who stuck in my head today due to a longer than desired commute, and it’s catchy melody on the radio. And as I sit down to place another “hope for tomorrow” article, my writing is now interwoven with the melody and lyrics of a 1981 song playing in my head. Hopeless cause, right? Wrong. I’m going with this and see where this is going to take me.
The lyrics, a tale of someone who utters the words “I love you” in a moment of weakness, only to be rebuked with a “you’d better!” response, is a little bit of wisdom for the fans of the Philadelphia 76ers right now. If you are not true blue loyal 100% believer, you have already fallen or soon will fall to the wayside.
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Nothing I can write in this article can bring you back. Only a Sixers winning streak will make you reconsider the alternatives. But for the fans who have been in the tunnel of “Trusting The Process”, there is a light now at the end of the tunnel. It’s dim, and distant, but its a light. So when you utter the words “I trust the process”, I say without hesitation: “You’d better!”
We are at the crest of the mountain, the cusp of the hill. We have arrived to this last leg of painful endurance that will test our fiber and our will. But the end is in sight. The 2015-16 season will be different. Since president and general manager Sam Hinkie has arrived, the team has found reason and opportunity to use the NBA draft to choose a highly talented prospect, most likely the most talented prospect in the NBA draft.
Next: Its The Climb
Dec 3, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward
Nerlens Noel(4) and forward
Robert Covington(33) celebrate during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The 76ers defeated the Timberwolves 85-77. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
It’s The Climb
In the 2013 NBA draft, the team traded point guard Jrue Holiday and 42nd pick point guard Pierre Jackson for center Nerlens Noel and a 2014 protected first round draft pick. Noel had fallen out of favor due to his need to rehab following a successful ACL surgery, and sat out the 2013-2014 season for the Sixers.
In the 2014 NBA draft, the Philadelphia 76ers selected center Joel Embiid with the third pick of the draft. Just as happened a year earlier, the team had a prospect who would be rehabbing for an entire season after a foot surgery. They also used the second first round pick to select power forward Dario Saric. Saric had signed a contract with the Turkish team powerhouse Anadolu Efes. His contract was for three years, but offers him an out after two seasons.
Fortunately, the knee of Nerlens Noel was now healed and he was able to take the court for the Sixers.
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Despite the poor records, and a draft designed to place struggling teams back into the fray by giving them better NBA draft placement, the Sixers turned that currency into “tomorrow”. Tomorrow that is now slated to be the 2016-17 season, as that is the year when both Embiid and Saric will likely arrive to the NBA.
In 2015, the Philadelphia 76ers broke tradition when the once more selected a center, this time in the form of Jahlil Okafor. But unlike the previous two seasons, Okafor is NBA ready and will likely start at center. This move allows the Sixers to slide a very strong defender in Noel to the power forward position. The front court of the Sixers is taking shape this season.
Next: The Youth Movement
Apr 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard
Hollis Thompson(31) and forward Robert Covington (33) bring the ball up court against the Miami Heat during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Heat won 105-101. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Youth Movement
The part of the process that escapes much analysis is the Sixers dedication to the youth movement. Why is that significant? While other teams trade veterans and top draft selections for the immediate impact on the team, the Sixers have begun to harvest a vastly untapped resource of talent that is not quite good enough to earn an NBA roster spot.
In the 2014-15 season, the Philadelphia 76ers fielded nine undrafted players: Brandon Davies, Drew Gordon, Chris Johnson, JaKarr Sampson, Alexey Shved, Henry Sims, Malcolm Thomas, Hollis Thompson and Robert Covington. Of this group, JaKarr Sampson, Hollis Thompson, and Robert Covington are currently on the roster.
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Meanwhile, the team has center Jahlil Okafor (19), Nik Stauskas (21), Nerlens Noel (21), Richaun Holmes (21), Jerami Grant (21), Joel Embiid (21), Tony Wroten (22), Scottie Wilbekin (22), JaKarr Sampson (22), Pierre Jackson (23), Hollis Thompson (24), Robert Covington (24), Isaiah Canaan (24) and Furkan Aldemir (24). With a mentor/head coach in Brett Brown, it’s clear that the organization is heavily invested in player development.
Next: Fountain Of Youth
Apr 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; General view of the exterior of the Wells Fargo Center as seen through a gate before a game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Dr. Martin Fountain of Youth
With so many young athletes in the Philadelphia 76ers organization, does that mean the team will burn them out rapidly and move onto the next wave of youth? Unlikely.
"“Forties is the new 30s for physiological capacity. We’re going to continue to see people do well into their 40s — no question. Obviously the body deteriorates a little bit at that age, but you make up for other things,” he said. “If you take care of your body and you enjoy what you’re doing, these are the two major parameters that can keep you going. If you run the body down, train too hard at an early age, or you ignore injuries, you get injections to stay fit, then you have trouble. – said Scott Trappe, director of the Human Performance Lab at Ball State University."
Players who arrive onto the Philadelphia 76er roster may not believe they will win a championship this year, but they can take solace that, if they adhere to the plan administered by Director of Sports Medicine Dr. David Martin, their career will last a long time, long enough to increase their odds of a championship significantly.
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So a team with a host of youth, and a Doctor who is leading the science of athletic longevity? That’s a powerful combination. The average length of an NBA career is 4.8 years. So many in sports who analyze the ‘where will he go next’ focus on the likelihood of an immediate championship.
But soon, today’s athletes will see their career in the same light that Sam Hinkie sees building a championship. The perception that “here and now” will begin to fade in the face as they see colleagues who opted for the slow and steady career path. The Sixers are building that player friendly environment now. If they have success, and I suspect that they will, other teams will follow.
Next: Sixers Reload
Sixer Reload The Program
The NBA punishes success. Or at least, they have stacked the deck so that success is fleeting. Between salary caps, and NBA draft order, as soon as you win anything you are shoved to the back of the line when it comes to selecting new talent, and placed at the top of the pile when it comes to players now making salary demands.
But Hinkie may have discovered a loophole. Maybe. You see, he’s determined, correctly, that the NBA draft is a game of randomness. So he has improved the team’s chances by increasing the number of picks.
"“We will not bat a thousand on every single draft pick. We also have them by the bushel-full, in part, because of that. We don’t have any hubris that we will get them all right. We’re not certain that we have an enormous edge over anybody else. In some cases, we might not have an edge at all.” – general manager Sam Hinkie"
The odds now even out, or may even lean ever so slightly to the Sixers favor. They have more picks, and the likelihood that they find a talent who will out-hustle, outshine, and outplay his class increases. Particularly on a team that is bringing a state of the art training facility on line in 2016. Couple that with the advances of basketball analytics, and sport medicine, and you’ve got a virtual PhD program of NBA development just about to launch on its maiden voyage. All it needs is talent. But that is the specialty of Hinkie, as he is lining up talent by the bushel-full.
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So how big is the Sixer bushel basket?
Next: Sixers NBA Draft Bushel Basket
Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the full first round draft board at the conclusion of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Sixers NBA Draft Bushel Basket
2016: Four 1st-round picks, one 2nd-round pick
Own 1st-round pick
Los Angeles Lakers 1st-round pick (top-3 protected)
Miami Heat 1st-round pick (top-10 protected)
Oklahoma City Thunder 1st-round pick (lottery-protected)
Denver Nuggets 2nd-round pick
2017: One 1st-round pick, one 2nd-round pick
Own 1st-round pick
Own 2nd-round pick
2018: One 1st-round pick, three 2nd-round picks
Own 1st-round pick
Own 2nd-round pick
Brooklyn Nets or Cleveland Cavaliers 2nd-round pick (the 76ers will receive the better of the two)
Los Angeles Clippers or New York Knicks 2nd-round pick (the 76ers will receive the better of the two)
2019: One 1st-round pick, three 2nd-round picks
Own 1st-round pick
Own 2nd-round pick
New York Knicks 2nd-round pick
Milwaukee Bucks or Sacramento Kings 2nd-round pick (the 76ers will receive the better of the two)
2020: One 1st-round pick, three 2nd-round picks
Own 1st-round pick
Own 2nd-round pick
Brooklyn Nets 2nd-round draft pick
New York Knicks 2nd-round draft pick
2021: One 1st-round pick, two 2nd-round picks
Own 1st-round pick
Own 2nd-round pick
New York Knicks 2nd-round draft pick
Future 1st-round draft pick from the Sacramento Kings (top-10 protected) which cannot be obtained before 2018. The pick is top ten protected in 2018 and 2019, but becomes unprotected in 2020.
Current stash of players in overseas competition
The right two swap 1st-round picks with the Kings in two more drafts
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That’s a pretty big basket folks. If the Sixers find success, these picks will continue to come in. So far, this stockpiling of picks has not been repeated elsewhere in the NBA. But the team is loading up with second round picks? Yes, fourteen to be exact, while harvesting ten first round picks. That is over the next six years, or an average of four picks per season.
Next: Value Second Round
Jul 14, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard
J.P. Tokoto(11) looks to pass the ball during an NBA Summer League game against the Knicks at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Value The Second Round Picks
Hinkie’s former team, the Houston Rockets has six guys on its 14-man roster who were second-round picks or undrafted free agents. The Rockets have built a team around the James Harden–Dwight Howard nucleus. That is in keeping with the approach of Hinkie’s mentor, GM Daryl Morey.
When an NBA team obtains elite talent on its roster, it must round out the other players with competent, but affordable, options. Hinkie knows this, and is using the current plight of the Philadelphia 76ers as a grand incubator to supply the insatiable hunger of NBA teams – not with elite talent – but with the competent and affordable options.
What does the team get in return? Draft picks. The Sixers traded popular second round selection forward K.J. McDaniels to the Houston Rockets for guard Isaiah Canaan and a second round draft pick. From those draft picks come raw talented players who grow into affordable NBA players. To build a championship team, you must have as many competent and inexpensive players as stars. It’s the economics 101 of the NBA.
Hinkie knows this, and as he makes moves with the skill of a chess master, he is keeping his eye on the ultimate goal – building a complete roster, not just a starting five.
Next: You Are Here
Oct 16, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers cheer squad fires t-shirts to the fans during the second half of a game against the Boston Celtics at Wells Fargo Center. The Celtics defeated the Sixers 111 to 91. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
You Are Here
With so many moving parts, I had to cover a LOT of ground in this article. The basic premise is that this team is better. Here’s why I think it is:
We have more top talent taking the floor than the past two years. With Stauskas, Noel, and Okafor alone, these are three first round draft picks. As they develop chemistry among each other and their teammates, Dario Saric and Joel Embiid are scheduled to arrive with the team next year. That will make five first round prospects on the same roster.
Simultaneously, the team is investing a great deal into the development of young talented players. Keeping with the mantra of the Houston Rockets, Sam Hinkie targets second round talent to stash and develop into an NBA caliber player. While the general manager lines up the talent, the team is setting up a way to train, educate, and enhance each player’s chances of success in the NBA.
But when the team finds a way to win, won’t they begin the decline? Not quite. The team has set up a pipeline for talent for the foreseeable future. Combined with the sports medicine innovations of Dr. Martin, the players who do remain will likely be able to extend their careers above the average NBA player. Still, that’s tomorrow.
Tomorrow has come. The NBA Philadelphia 76ers are no longer rope-a-doping to wait for the later rounds of this boxing match. The bell has sounded, and they are coming out fighting this year. Success is not measured in a championship this season, but rather in turning the ship around. This team is at the crest of success.
#ThisStartsNow pic.twitter.com/xgdAuodH8G
— Nerlens Noel (@NerlensNoel3) August 7, 2015
So when they ask if the Sixers are better, you can be confident in replying:
Sixers are better? We’re better! You bet!