Jan 21, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Robert Covington (33) raises his hands and reacts to a three pointer against the New York Knicks during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Knicks defeated the 76ers 98-91. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
As we itch closer and closer to the beginning of the season — even though training camp is still a distant thought — it’s time to start taking a close look at finalized roster predictions, projections, and more for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Working from the top down, we already took a look at the top of the roster, the front court that features Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel. It looks like they could do a lot of damage in the NBA, but they haven’t fully grown to their potential yet.
Additionally, their potential can be slowed by a roster that isn’t at their level. Noel and Okafor could be at the top of their career, but if their supporting cast isn’t playing well, they could really hold them back.
The front court and point guard position is getting a lot of attention this offseason. Is the small forward/shooting guard slot overlooked?
— The Sixer Sense (@SixerSense) September 7, 2015
It’s clear that the small forward and shooting guard positions aren’t getting much attention this season compared to the front court and point guard position. The front court is popular for obvious reasons, Noel coming off of a big first year and Okafor entering his NBA career. The point guard position is a popular topic simply because of the uncertainty with who will be a point guard next season.
Despite this, it’s important to know what’s going on with the rest of the lineup, and I think the small forward position will be more popular this year than it is expected to be.
Next: The Starter
Apr 8, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Robert Covington (33) dribbles the ball past Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Wizards won 119-90. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
In my opinion, and the opinion of a vast majority of Sixers fans, Robert Covington will be getting the start at small forward this season. His past in Houston was rough, with too much talent to fit him in and give him significant minutes. As a Sixer, he meshes in much better, and was able to have a great first year on the team last season.
Anyone else excited to see RoCo with (likely) 30+ minutes consistently next season?
— Josh Wilson (@J_WilsonSports) September 7, 2015
He averaged 13.5 points per game alongside 1.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds, a well rounded performance for a small forward. His three point shooting appears to be an asset, and he was shooting at 37% from beyond the arc last season.
His overall field goal percentage was good as well, but not differing much from his three point percentage, at 39%.
Covington started just 49 games last season, but by the looks of how the roster is shaping up this year, he will be getting more minutes. Last season, Covington didn’t consistently get over 30 minutes per game until after Christmas, and even then, his games with minutes surpassing 30 were spotty. Looking over his game logs, there’s a clear positive relationship between points and playing time for Covington.
This can be shown by his stats per 36 minutes, as he averaged 17.4 points per 36 last season. I would say that we could expect 30+ minutes for RoCo this year, and look for him to get above 15 points per game.
Some doubt Covington as being a truly good player. Perhaps this can be true, and a reason why he didn’t get playing time in Houston. Still, I find his skill set to be impressive, and I find him worthy of the starting position.
His ability to go up for lobs is impressive, as well.
Watching game tapes, it does seem like Covington has major problems getting involved on offense. Defensively, he’s pretty good, and if you watch him off the ball, he’s great at shutting down his assignments, but on offense, he often seems to be absent.
Last season, Covington watched a lot, even on the floor, as Noel took over a lot of the team’s offensive strain. This year, that could be even worse with two big men expected to do a lot.
His starting spot was one he had to prove himself for. Last year appeared to be a trial run with Covington as small forward, and he got the job done well enough to be the starter in my mind.
Next: Reserves
Apr 13, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Jerami Grant (39) drives past Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Covington certainly can not do all of the work for the three spot. He’s going to need some support from the bench, and lucky for him, there’s no shortage of players to help out there. The question becomes more an issue of if they have the talent.
Most casual basketball fans don’t know Jerami Grant’s name. As shown by our very own Ryan Disider, he’s definitely overlooked by the NBA. Despite that, most Sixers fans are quite aware that he could have a breakout year on the way.
As I looked into Grant, I struggled trying to figure out if he should really be used in the three spot, or if he falls more under the league trend of a stretch four, due to his range.
Jerami Grant: like him more as a stretch four or SF?
— Josh Wilson (@J_WilsonSports) September 7, 2015
Back to Disdier’s article, I liked the way he described Grant, labeling him a, “hybrid,” between a stretch four and a traditional small forward.
I think @DisdierSports put it best when he called Grant a “hybrid four.”
— Josh Wilson (@J_WilsonSports) September 7, 2015
In many other offenses, I believe Grant would be a stretch four. But since the Sixers lean more towards the traditional front court offense, he will fit in as a small forward.
Nothing too glamorous came in Grant’s rookie season, averaging just over 6 points per game in 21 minutes. Per 36 minutes, he still was not a star, just barely breaking into double digit points.
He has his issues, for sure, including his free throw shooting. Grant shot below 60% from the line last year, an alarming statistic.
Thompson has consistently seen around 23 minutes per game in the first two years of his career, and it looks like that’s around what he will get this year too. He averaged nearly nine points per game last season.
Per 36 minutes, he has shown improvement throughout his first two years, and averaged 12.7 points per 36 minutes last year.
He’s a versatile part of the offense. From being an option as a three point shooter, to taking mid-range shots, and also driving to the rim. Thompson is good at all things scoring,
I included Wallace in the projection post for the front court since he has played power forward in the past, but it’s no secret that he’s traditionally been better at small forward. Wallace is the closest thing the team has to a veteran presence at the moment. He’s no Paul Pierce, but for the moment he’s all the Sixers have in that realm, standing out among the roster built mostly by first, second, and third year players.
As Wallace is aging, it’s clear that his skill set is not what it used to be. Last season he was unable to play for a good chunk of the year, only appearing in 32 games, and starting zero for the Boston Celtics. In nine minutes per game, Wallace only scored 1.1 points.
The year prior, he only scored 5.1 points per game while playing 24.4 minutes. He hasn’t been able to score double digit points since 2012.
Hierarchies in the NBA don’t go based off of seniority, they go off of skill set, so it will be no surprise to see Wallace warming the bench most of the season.
Even now, it doesn’t seem like his spot as a Sixer has been solidified, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him dealt in a trade now or partway through the season. It’s not just his age, but his style of play does not seem to fit with the Sixers.
Next: Projections
Apr 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Robert Covington (33) during a game against the Miami Heat at Wells Fargo Center. The Heat won 105-101. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Projections
As I mentioned earlier, the small forward position is quite overlooked this year due to the expectations surrounding the front court, and the uncertainty with the point guard position. Still, it’s an important part to the lineup and the roster, and I don’t think it deserves to be forgotten.
Covington isn’t a fantastic player, but he will do as a starter. He’s improving every year, and brings qualities to the court that will help the Sixers win games next year.
The bench doesn’t have a lot going for them, in all honesty. The biggest thing they have is numbers, as they’re currently running about three deep. It’s not clear if the Sixers will keep all of those players, though.
I think Covington will average 15 points per game, and the bench will add an additional 10 on top of that.
Next: Has Jamaal Charles Lost a Step?
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