To Fix Philadelphia 76ers, NBA Should Expand Draft

Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum speaks during the second round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

To Fix Philadelphia 76ers, NBA Should Focus On Draft Expansion

We’ve seen the headlines. “Sixers Hire Colangelo at recommendation of NBA Commissioner”. “Agents Refuse To Allow Their Players To Work Out For 76ers”. “Sixers lose another one.”

But trying to change the course of the Philadelphia 76ers in the middle of a seven year rebuild seems short sighted on the parts of the ownership, as well as the NBA.  You see, the problem isn’t with the Sixers.  The problem is with the NBA draft.

What’s that I say?  The draft?  Yes, and here’s why.  Of just the NCAA tournament, 64 teams compete for the national championship.  Let’s say each team has 2 seniors graduating (on average).  That places 128 players into the mix for the NBA draft.  The NBA meanwhile has 30 teams, and just two rounds for their draft.  That leaves 64 hopeful and well trained young men left behind, outside of the NBA.  Some of those young men are indeed worthy of NBA consideration.  Some of those young men simply need a chance to train and to be coached up and an opportunity.

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But in today’s NBA, there is no avenue for them to realize that dream.  That is, not until the Philadelphia 76ers opened the door for them.

You see, it’s not about tanking at all.  It’s about playing the odds.  The Philadelphia 76ers see the 64 players left behind, plus the hundreds of other players from the NIT, small colleges, and European leagues who are not assessed as an instant plug-and-play-in-the-NBA kind of guy, and give them an opportunity.  Why?  Economics.  The NBA has constrictive rules for contracts of their elite players – which forces teams who sign veterans to fall as their production wanes – or find a team like the 76ers who might be willing to absorb the expensive contract.

Next: Glitch In NBA System

Nov 2, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie (far left) watches as center

Joel Embiid

(21) walks out of the tunnel on crutches prior to a game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Sam Finds Glitch In NBA System

The president and general manager of the 76ers, Sam Hinkie, uses the shallow draft, the salary cap, and the overpaid contracts to his advantage.  He picks up the undrafted talent that is NBA worthy.  If you don’t take my word for it, check out the production of Robert Covington, T.J. McConnell, or former Sixers K.J. McDaniels.  With the undrafted talent on the roster, he then has plenty of salary cap space to absorb the contracts of veterans from other teams who are under-performing their cost to the NBA team.  But, with that willingness to take on huge contracts, Hinkie wants compensation – usually in the form of NBA draft picks.  The reason this strategy works is simply the “must win now” mentality of this NBA.  By delaying their return, they have amassed talent that will mature in synch with the talent that will arrive from the 2016 NBA draft – up to four first round picks.

But NBA executives (unnamed) don’t like where this is taking the NBA.  Some claim that the Philadelphia 76ers are not placing an NBA quality team onto the basketball court.   With one win in this young season, that’s probably somewhat correct.   Some claim that the Philadelphia 76ers have lost the ear of agents of top NBA talent.  That could be true as well, as it’s common knowledge that the Sixers will not be paying a max contract for any player before they turn the corner and begin winning.   Some claim that the Sixers are tanking for that first NBA draft pick.

But that is where they stand as incorrect.  Tanking suggests that they are TRYING to lose games.  They aren’t.  The 76ers are simply not interested in building a team that can never challenge for a championship while winning just enough games to keep them from having an opportunity to find a franchise player in the draft.  They simply have delayed their need to win until pieces are in place to sustain success, and perhaps even carry them into a multi-year championship run.

Next: The Fix

Dec 7, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Jerry Colangelo (R) is introduced as special advisor to the Philadelphia 76ers during a press conference with owner Joshua Harris (M) and general manager Sam Hinkie (L) before a game against the San Antonio Spurs at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Fix

In the meantime, there are angry and upset NBA executives that want the NBA to seal the back door approach taken by the Sixers.   They fear other teams will recognize and folow the strategy, severing the NBA into a league of two halves.  Some teams will be in serious post-season competition, and some teams simply trying to remain afloat while they reload their talent base,   losing games in the process.  However, as long as so many talented young men remain undrafted, there will be general managers who recognize the system for what it is – an opportunity.

So how does the NBA stop this?  Simply stated, they expand the draft to four rounds.  How does this help?

The pool of talent is rich and robust.  Teams who are successful have no interest in developing a player for several years.  Team who are unsuccessful have no interest in waiting multiple years to see if the player “pans out”.  So the talent pool becomes stagnant, with only a handful of teams shopping among the group.  That excess of talent versus the few teams willing to afford a player an opportunity gives the NBA team an advantage.  Sam Hinkie has become a master at using that to his advantage.   His contracts are structured to give unproven talent high initial salary. But the terms of the contract give the team the opportunity to retain or sever the relationship with the player.  Most teams try to limit the risk by low-balling salary up front.  Hinkie limits risk by focussing on the contract severability.

Expanding the draft places all thirty teams into that second tier market. With an NBA roster of 20 for preseason, an NBA draft of four rounds syphons off an additional 60 players, some of whome to teams whom would never shop from those players on their own. The extra two players who are signed to an NBA roster now have a fighting chance of making an impression, would be protected contractually by CBA provisions, and afford opportunities to players who are worth an NBA assessment.  But most of all, it would dilute the pool of talent and distribute players among all 30 NBA teams.

Yes, teams looking to rebuild would still be challenged to resist the path blazed by Sam Hinkie.  But the NBA salary cap is rising in upcoming years, which mitigates the urgency to shed expensive contracts.  Adding to the NBA draft would be good for the players, and therefore be very good for the NBA.

Next: D Minus And Counting

Jul 10, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard D

D Minus And Counting?

The obvious objection would be “but what about the Developmental League”? Well the D-League could actually become more important. With the NBA teams now getting looks at players who may not quite be “NBA ready”, reassignments to the D-League team would become a valuable avenue. Similar to a practice squad in the NFL, the D-League would be incentivized to push for a larger roster to handle what would likely be an influx of more talent. The league could consider “protected” slots on the D-league team with certain contract provisions or league limits.

The developmental leagues are used by a handful of teams for their intended purpose, to give young men a chance to advance their game and build themselves a bona fide opportunity to play in the NBA.  There are 19 teams in the developmental league with an eventual goal of each NBA team affiliating with a team in the developmental league.

"“There’s no doubt about it, 30 for 30 is our number one priority.” D-League president Malcolm Turner told Aldridge"

To fill the goal of having a 30 team D-league, players will need to come from somewhere. By expanding the NBA draft, the D-league will find ample players being reassigned from their NBA affiliates to round out their rosters. The idea has been gaining traction for a while now, and was discussed by Hoops Habit’s Mark Vandeusen.:

David Aldridge of NBA.com has gone down this road in an article.

"And once every NBA team has its own D-League team, the assumption is there will be a need for more players to fill out those rosters — and the need to expand the Draft by at least a round, maybe two. “If everybody’s going to have a D-League team, that’s eight more positions that everybody’s going to get,” one longtime GM said over the weekend. “Maybe you go to five (rounds) the first year to allow everybody to stock the teams, and then the next year, you go down to four.” Another general manager proposed that players taken after the second round of an expanded Draft have so-called “two-way” contracts, similar to those used for some players in Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League. Such contracts pay salaries based on whether the player is in the major leagues or the minors."

The only difference in my version is to expand the draft first. Bring young talent into the NBA. The influx of young talent will speed up the D-League expansion. NBA teams will want to retain young players who have caught their eye but are not yet ripe for the NBA.

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All the while the tactics of Sam Hinkie become obsolete.  The Philadelphia 76ers will be compelled to sign veterans in the absence of true prospects with huge upside.  Veterans will come at a higher price, which will have a dominoes effect of shunting the Sixers willingness to absorb virtually any bad NBA contract for a draft pick.

It’s quite easy to do, if the problem actually is the strategy of the Sixers.  If it’s just a league misunderstanding the innovative process of Sam Hinkie, that’s another matter altogether.   We’ll know soon enough.  Regardless of the fortunes of this Sixers team, the ultimate success will be determined in the quantity and quality of the 2016 NBA draft for Philadelphia.