Why Going 1-30 Was Good for the Philadelphia 76ers

Why Philadelphia 76ers fans should be happy the team waited to add Ish Smith and how a 1-30 start to the season could be the best thing for the franchise.

The Philadelphia 76ers started the season with rookie T.J. McConnell and sophomore Isaiah Canaan sharing the role of point guard for majority of the Sixers first 31 games. This resulted in a single victory, but countless amount of articles, Tweeks, and angry rants about the pathetic disgrace the Sixers had become. When the Sixers traded their 2016 second round pick from the Denver Nuggets and their own 2017 second round pick to the New Orleans Pelicans for point guard Ish Smith on December 24, 2015, the Sixers went from the worst team in history of all professional American sports up to merely a bad NBA team.

Since the Sixers added Ish Smith they have won four of the 12 games that Smith has been on the team this season. Wining four out of 12 games doesn’t sound like a big deal, and the Sixers are clearly still a bad team. Still, had the Sixers re-signed Smith during the 2015 off-season or claimed him off waivers when they had the chance, the Sixers should have finished the 2015-2016 NBA season with a 27-55 record. I came to this record using basic math and assuming the Sixers will win and lose at the same rate as the 12 games with Smith this season.

Obviously the rate I used was one win from every four games played, and by dividing all 82 games in an NBA season by three, I got 27.3. If the Sixers had finished the 2014-2015 season with a 27-55 record, they would have been the sixth wor at team in the NBA. Had the Sixers finished the 2013-2014 season with a 27-55 record, they would have tied the Los Angeles Lakers for the sixth worse record. While the Sixers would have been more entertaining for the fans and maybe some of Jahlil Okafor‘s offcourt issues would have been avoided, would going 27-55 and likely the sixth best chance to win the lottery be better for the Sixers rebuild?

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The sixth pick would give the Sixers a 6.3 percent chance at winning the lottery and a 21.5 percent chance at landing a pick in the top three. If the Sixers end this season with the worst record in the NBA, they will have 25 percent chance at winning the lottery and a 64.3 percent chance of receiving a top three pick. Looking at past NBA lotteries from 2005 to 2015, only the Portland Trail Blazers in the 2006, the Memphis Grizzlies in 2007, and the Sacramento Kings in 2009 managed to fall out of the top three after having the worst record in the NBA in the past decade. While only the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2015 managed to win the lottery with the worst record in a decade, the Atlanta Hawks in 2005, the Miami Heat in 2008, the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2011, the Charlotte Bobcats in 2012, the Orlando Magic in 2013, and the Milwaukee Bucks in 2014 received the second pick after finishing the season with the worst record.

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The past decade of NBA lotteries suggest that the Sixers should do no worse than the current number two prospect for the 2016 NBA draft, Brandon Ingram. But what if the Sixers had started the season with Smith and ended up with the sixth worst record? Only the Milwaukee Bucks in 2005 won the NBA lottery with the sixth worst record in the past decade.

Thanks to the Sixers failure to have an average point guard for about a third of the season, they were able to lose enough games to have solid lead on their rivals for top lottery odds and fans can now enjoy watchable basketball without having to worry too much about killing their chances of drafting the next NBA superstar.