Which 2016 NBA Draft Picks Will Philadelphia 76ers Receive On Draft Day?

2016 is lining up to be a significant off-season for the Philadelphia 76ers.  But with a unique blending of Sam Hinkie and Jerry Colangelo, will it be a year of a mega-deal, standing firm on their picks, or exercising more patience by trading some assets for future picks to develop a better understanding of what they have already?

As the year 2016 crawls along, we cannot help but look up from the daily news of another injury or loss to see the light on the horizon – The 2016 NBA draft.  While the Sixers are young and improving, and already have two players with incredible upsides joining the team in the form of Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, the true name in the marquis lights is the 2016 NBA draft and what it could mean to the Philadelphia 76ers team, fans, and future.

You see the NBA draft has had four picks in the first round go to one team just twice in its history: the 2009 Minnesota Timberwolves and the Sacramento Kings in the 1990 NBA draft.  But in neither case did the benefitting team set the world afire.  The Kings were 25-57 in 1990.  They improved to 29-53 in 1991, 25-57 in 1992, 28-54 in 1993, 39-43 in both 1994 and 1995.  In short, the Kings did not see much benefit from four picks.   Similarly, the Minnesota Timberwolves were 15-67 in 2009, 17-65 in 2010, 26-40 in 2011, 31-51 in 2012, and 40-42 in 2013.   In both cases, four first round draft picks for the team did not push the team above .500 for five years.

The 2009 Timberwolves selected PG Ricky Rubio at 7, PG Johnny Flynn at 8, PG Ty Lawson (traded for a future pick which became Luke Babbitt) at 18, and SG Wayne Ellington at 28.

The 1990 Sacramento Kings selected SF Lionel Simmons at 7, PG Travis Mays at 14, C Duane Causwell at 18, and SF Anthony Bonner at 23.

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In contrast, the Philadelphia 76ers have a top five pick. The Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (top three protected) is 44.2% likely to be claimed by the Sixers this season at either four or five. They also can lay claim to the first round pick of the Miami Heat (currently 22) and the first round pick of the Oklahoma City Thunder (currently 27). The team also reserves the right to swap their draft pick with that of the Sacramento Kings if the Kings draw a better spot in the lottery. And as a fail safe, the Sixers can swap either the Heat or the Thunder pick with that of the Golden State Warriors if the Warrior pick is better.

So four picks, with three all but locked in. That’s a good setup, but one that is not guaranteed. When the Philadelphia 76ers traded two second round draft picks, they traded their 2016 (a pick from the Denver Nuggets) and 2017 picks. Does that play a factor in the team’s strategy?

Next: Colangelo Calling

Colangelo Calling

Well, that among other things.  You see, the pressure is off for the most part on the Sixers for this draft class.  Yes, they have a shot at two lottery picks this year, but they will automatically receiver the services of two first round draft picks in 2016: Joel Embiid and Dario Saric.  By all accounts, both players appear to have tremendous upsides – so much so that even straight talker Jerry Colangelo is impressed.

Colangelo was brought on to give an honest assessment of the team’s status and outlook. He did just that recently.

"“There’s no guarantee, but the thing you have to do is give people hope. This isn’t like, let’s look down the road five years and see where we are. No, I don’t see that at all. I see the opportunity here to get some big things done over the next year. There’s one way to go here and that’s up. I’m very optimistic [and], you’ve got to be a little bit lucky, too, in terms of all the things I’m talking about. I use the expression, ‘The stars have to be aligned,’ and if we have a good alignment, it could happen in ’16. So, we could have a turnaround in one year that would surprise people. As far as the plan, whatever people think the plan is, nothing is changing as far as a course. The reality is, and I’ve come to understand this, that Sam has really done a great job of accumulating assets. Now, it’s a matter of when do you pull the trigger on using all those assets. So, as I look at the board, if you will, I see some things that could happen sooner than later.” -Jerry Colangelo spoke after attending a Sixers practice."

And so, the Sixers have plenty of currency thanks to president and general manager Sam Hinkie, and Colangelo is a seasoned NBA executive who is not caught up in the hype or bandwagon approach of team building. What will they do?

Next: Draft Disaster

Three Options

It will all depend on the lottery. That’s the bottom line. Let’s assume the worst first.

Option One – Draft Disaster.

Let’s start with the worst case scenario. The Los Angeles Lakers win the draft lottery, so their pick is protected. The Miami Heat (protected 1-10)and Oklahoma City Thunder (protected 1-15) picks are likely coming to the Sixers, but as their win games, they fall in the draft order. Let’s place the Thunder at 29 and the Heat at 26. So in this scenario, the Sixers would be enjoying just three first round picks (4, 26, and 29). Bad news for the team?

Well, it limits the number of new faces arriving, but with this current roster is that automatically a bad thing? We know Saric and Embiid will be joining, and if the Sixers fall to the 4 pick, they could very likely use that as an incentive to trade up for their top draft choice- whether that is Simmons or Ingram.  That gives the team incentive and roster room to show patience and continue to groom such players who are showing signs of promise, such as Richaun Holmes, T.J. McConnell,  Jerami Grant, even Isaiah Canaan.

It also means that the Sixers will have the Los Angeles Lakers first round draft pick in 2017, and that would be a good thing.  The Los Angeles Lakers will be in rebuild mode next season, and their draft pick would likely be a lottery pick.  If the Sixers team improves dramatically, that Laker pick would be huge for the team.

The team could also sit pat, and do another best player available scenario.   With a draft boasting such names as Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Skal Labissiere, Dragan Bender, Jaylen Brown, Kriss Dunn, and Jamal Murray, there should be plenty of talent in the early picks. If the team elects to select a prospect like Dragan Bender, they will have the option of allowing him to return to Europe, mature, and retain the rights to be harvested at some future point in time.

Next: Win Now

Option Two – Win Now.

This is a unique circumstance, and perhaps will never take place.  But, what if the Sixers are NOT enamoured with the top draft names or are simply impatient. Perhaps a team desperate to accelerate their own dive into the depths of rebuilding will offer a good package of future picks and current players. Perhaps the Brooklyn Nets would part with trey-shooting Shane Larkin and their own first pick if they want to move up to the Sixers spot. Would the Phoenix Suns package Brandon Knight and picks for the chance to land one of the top three in this years NBA draft?

Teams that don’t make the playoffs, who aren’t Sam Hinkie, feel the clock ticking and are compelled to take chances to get back to the playoffs quickly.  Patience is not really part of that equation.  So a non-playoff team with an aging roster is in a true pickle.  If they’ve had enough success in the season, they are on life support as far as NBA draft chances.  If they have a good player in the upper middle 20’s, that player will likely retire before he will see a good team built around him.

Trades make sense in that scenario.  Trades for later round picks if they have the patience of Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers.  But without time on their side, many teams see the only option left as trading players and picks to move up for “that guy”.  If Ben Simmons is the next coming of Magic Johnson as some report, then why not trade the farm for the chance he truly IS that gifted.

But the Sixers are loaded with young talented players with upside.  Not that Ben Simmons is not a difference-maker, but with 80% of the Sixers at age 25 or younger, they have a surplus of young talent on this roster.  If another team wishes to trade premium value, particularly if they offer a player with immediate impact potential in a shallow position, the Sixers would be foolish not to listen.  A player like Paul George of the Indianapolis Colts is a perfect example of this type of player.  The Pacers on on the cusp of the NBA playoffs.   An ill timed losing streak can plummet them out of playoff contention.  With a roster whose median age is 26, the team is short of young prospects to take over when they begin to lose productivity through age.

Next: Que Sera Sera

Option Three – Que Sera Sera

With this Sixers off-season, perhaps the wisest move is to let events happen naturally.  If the Sixers covet a single player too much, they run the risk of losing objectivity.   I don’t see that happening with Sam Hinkie at the helm.  But Jerry Colangelo, as heralded and lauded as an NBA career could be in the front office, did not always end up on the positive ends of trades.

Nobody does 100% of the time.

So with a plan intact, improvements happening this season, and in the absence of some “too good to be true” offers from a desperate NBA team, could the Sixers just let it ride?

You bet.

In one mock draft, the Sixers are projected to draft Ben Simmons from Louisiana  State University, Melo Trimble from the University of Maryland, and Malik Newman from Mississippi State University. In another, the Sixers project to draft Simmons, Denzel Valentine from Michigan State Univesity, and Guerschon Yabusele from SPO Rouen (France).   In neither mock did the Sixers score on the Los Angeles Lakers first round draft pick.   The odds of the Lakers keeping their pick by getting a top three is only 55.8%.  Right now, the Sixers have a 44.2% chance of getting an additional first round NBA draft pick at either the four or five selecting position.  We’ll find out on lottery day.

Sitting put could land the Sixers both Ben Simmons and Dragan Bender in the same draft, plus two more prospects.   That would give the Sixers an opportunity to field one of the largest teams on the basketball court and also one of the youngest teams in the league.  But with so many young talents on the roster, can they all be mentored, coached, trained, and developed fully?

Next: Why 1-30 Was Good For The Philadelphia 76ers

That’s the question  worth asking.  We know the team is gearing up to be one of the premier NBA franchises in terms of practice facilities and support.  But can the team take on an entire roster of new faces?  That’s a point to consider as we move forward.  Sam Hinkie thought we could, but from the moment Jerry Colangelo arrived the team has emphasized a blending of veteran players in acquiring point guard Ish Smith and power forward Elton Brand.

How will it all play out?  The good news is that we have a bird’s eye view, and we’ll continue to cover this story as it unfolds.  If you feel excited, don’t worry.  The real thrill is yet to come.