Philadelphia 76ers Latest Win Places Future Into Uncertainty

Jan 20, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown reacts against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Orlando Magic 96-87. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 20, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown reacts against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Orlando Magic 96-87. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 20, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown reacts against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Orlando Magic 96-87. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 20, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown reacts against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Orlando Magic 96-87. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia 76ers are nearing a transition. Evolving from a team that can handle defeat to a team that can handle success is not an easy thing to accomplish. But this Sixers team is set up to do just that

The final score was 96-87.  The Philadelphia 76ers had just defeated the Orlando Magic in Orlando. It was merely the sixth win for the last place team in the NBA Eastern Conference, and for the entire league for that matter. But it’s taking on a life of it’s own now. Winning breeds winning.  Right now, the team “feels” like a team on the rise in the NBA.

We’ve done the math for you before. Sixer Sense Michael Bronson wrote an article defending the 1-30 start by the Philadelphia 76ers. In his article, he explained how the Sixers on their current rate of success, they would be ending the season at 27-55.  The team’s record is now 6-38.  But they’ve been playing better ball recently.   With 44 games behind them, the team merely has 38 games left to play.  But if this pace keeps up, the team could project to end the season  at  21-61.

21 wins may not seem like much, but at one point in the hapless team’s season they were sitting at one win and 30 losses.   It was a 21 win season for the Los Angeles Lakers that pushed them to the fourth worst team in the NBA, and in position to select D’Angelo Russell as the second pick of the 2015 NBA draft.  So far this season, the surprising resurgence of the Philadelphia 76ers could carry them to a better record than the Los Angeles Lakers, perhaps the Brooklyn Nets, perhaps even past the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Phoenix Suns.

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Before your mind races to another NBA draft where we don’t get “our guy”, let’s walk through this slowly.  The Philadelphia 76ers will get the Los Angeles Lakers pick if if falls out of the top three.   Even if the Lakers finish with the worst record in the NBA, they will still have a 35.7% chance of losing the pick to the Sixers.  By the same token, if the Sixers finish in the standings as far as 26th, they still have a 55.3% chance of getting a top five NBA draft pick.  But we have the rights to swap picks with the Sacramento Kings, which improves our chances of a top five pick by 10%.  Keep in mind that the team already is looking at the picks of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Miami Heat as well.

If the team does very well, they will still do very well in the draft.

But there is a huge difference between winning more than twenty games versus less than twenty games in a season.  If the Sixers show a positive trend in the win column by season’s end, and with the arrival of Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, the team becomes competitive.  Even with no new faces as a result of the NBA draft, the team should be able to win 30 or more games in 2016.  With a good off-season, this team should set a goal of 40 wins.  We know the rules.  As teams improve, forces act upon the team to drag it downwards: the draft and the salary cap.

Next: As Philadelphia 76ers Improve, Free Agency Becomes An Option

Fortunately, the Sixers are insulated from both effects.  With a draft that is as reliant upon the fortunes of the Los Angeles Lakers, the Sacramento Kings, the Miami Heat, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Golden State Warriors, the team has plenty of margin to enjoy success this season and still count upon an outstanding off-season.   If the team improves, the Sixers have plenty of salary cap space to sign their own talent or pursue free agents who might want to align with a young team built to succeed for many years to come.

While the future is not set into stone, it certainly takes on a much brighter outlook.  Success of this Philadelphia 76ers team should not be avoided.   The team, and the fans, should embrace as much as this team can achieve this season.   The higher the platform this year will only serve to build an even more successful team in the years to come.