With No Guarantees In NBA Draft Position, The Philadelphia 76ers Will Need Options. Providence’s College Kris Dunn is an excellent alternative in this draft
Although most fans don’t like to think about it, the fact of the matter is that the Philadelphia 76ers are not guaranteed the first two spots in the NBA Draft come June. If the 76ers don’t land one of the top two picks in the draft, then they will most likely have to take a look at their options outside of Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. I’ve already expressed my opinion on Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield and now it is time for me to do the same with Kris Dunn of Providence.
Some people might ask the question, “What about Ish Smith?” when talking about drafting a point guard. While Ish Smith has done a terrific job since he has returned to the team, I don’t think he’s capable of being the starting point guard on a championship squad. He’s more suited to come off the bench as a backup at that level. This is where Dunn comes in. I think if Dunn reaches his ceiling he could be a championship quality starting point guard. Before the 2015-16 NBA season started I wrote a piece on the qualities/attributes the 76ers point guard of the future should have and the reason I am high on Kris Dunn is because he has the potential to fill all of the qualities.
Since the 76ers will be built around star big men, it is important for the point guard of the future to have three certain qualities. Those qualities are above average passing (specifically dump-ins and in the pick & roll), above average defense, and a reliable jumpshot. Ish Smith only has one of those qualities which is the passing(although Smith has improved his shot from last year).
DEFENSE:
Dunn has great physical tools and athleticism to be an effective NBA point guard. He stands at 6’4 in shoes and has a 6’9 wingspan according to draftexpress.com which is almost the exact same measurements as NBA All-Star PG John Wall of the Washington Wizards. The only difference is that Wall’s wingspan is only a quarter of an inch longer than Dunn’s. It is no surprise that nbadraft.net placed John Wall as Dunn’s NBA comparison considering their similar physical structure, athleticism, and play style (although I’d say Wall has an extra gear speed wise but Dunn is still very fast).
These physical tools have helped Dunn become a tremendous defender. Since the 2010-11 NCAA basketball season, there have only been five guards with a defensive box plus-minus greater than or equal to seven, a defensive rating less than or equal to 90, and defensive win shares greater than or equal to 1.8. Kris Dunn is one of those guards and what sets him apart from the other guys is that he carries a much heavier load on offense than the other players as evidenced by Dunn’s usage rate of 29.1 according to sports-reference.com. The next highest usage rate on that list is only 22.8.
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It is well known that expending a lot of energy on offense can take a toll on a player’s effectiveness on defense so the fact that Dunn can carry a load that big on offense and still be in that short list of great defensive college guards says something. 76ers General Manager Sam Hinkie has said in the past that he looks for prospects that can play great on both sides of the ball and not too many players in the upcoming draft can do that as good as Dunn.
The NBA is loaded with great point guards in today’s game so having a player like Dunn who can lock other point guards up is a great asset to have. A lot of teams have their point guard as their best player and leading scorer so if the 76ers were to have a player that could neutralize the other team’s best player while the star big men go to work on the other end would be great. Not only would the rim be super protected with guys like Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel, but the perimeter would also be very well guarded with a player like Dunn. Rim protection is supposed to be the last line of defense so having someone who can keep the offense from getting there in the first place would be awesome. Defense from the point guard spot is underrated nowadays but I think it is still very important and one of the main reasons I think Dunn has a good chance to be the 76ers point guard of the future if drafted by the team.
RELIABLE JUMPSHOT:
While Dunn isn’t Steph Curry with the shot, he is still reliable with it and has been improving on it every season he has been in college. The reason a jumpshot is probably more important for guards on the 76ers than other teams is because the 76ers offense is and will be built around big-men that operate on the inside a lot. For a big man who scores in the post a lot like Jahlil Okafor, it is imperative to his effectiveness to have players next to him that cannot be sagged off on by the defense.
Having a post scorer (although Okafor can do much more than just post score) surrounded by total non-shooters is a recipe for disaster because the defense can double the big man as they please without being punished for it. Dunn has worked very hard on his shooting to make sure that would not be a problem in the future. Dunn shot 28.6% on 0.6 three point attempts per game in the 2012-13 season, 35.1% on 2.3 attempts in the 2014-15 season (only played 4 games in the 13-14 season due to injury so those stats are disregarded), and is currently shooting 37.2% from three point range on 3.5 attempts in the 2015-16 season.
He is not only shooting a much better percentage from three than when he first started college ball, he is also doing it on a volume almost six times higher. There is no reason to believe that he won’t keep improving his shot. When you combine Dunn’s penetration abilities with his passing and improving jumpshot, it sets up the making of a great pick and roll and pick and pop player. More on that in the next point.
PASSING:
Passing will and always will be a must for an NBA point guard to do at an exceptional level and Dunn is a great facilitator. Although his assists per game have went down from 7.5 in 14-15 to 6.7 this season, his turnovers have also went down from 4.2 to 3.6 making him a more efficient passer. His assist to turnover ratio last season was 1.78/1 and has improved to 1.86/1. The decrease in assists might have occurred because he had to take more of a scorer’s role this season but nevertheless, Dunn is still a very unselfish player and the type of PG the 76ers need to feed the bigs and shooters.
He still needs to clean up his turnovers but many turnovers are expected with a young, heavy usage point guard. Also what’s great about Dunn is that even though he commits 3.6 turnovers per game, it is almost like he erases them because he averages 3.2 steals per game so he is directly responsible for making other teams turn the ball over 3.2 times a game and gets the ball back. So if you were to subtract his steals from his turnovers you’d get 0.4 which would be his “real” turnover number per game. Dividing his assists per game by that 0.4 “real” turnover number would give you a ratio of 16.75/1 which is amazing.
Due to Dunn’s frame, athleticism, and handle, he should be able to penetrate just as good as if not better than Ish Smith and in turn give the shooters on the team plenty of looks by way of the kick-out pass. He will probably be an even deadlier penetrator than Smith based on the fact that he projects to be a much better finisher at the rim than Smith is so that will keep the defenses guessing even more if he will kick it out or score himself. Nerlens Noel would not lose any of his precious lobs and fast break opportunities with Dunn at the helm rather than Smith. Dunn is also very good at the dump in pass which is a must for a team with two post scoring guys like Embiid and Okafor.
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Dunn is a nightmare for anyone to guard in the pick and roll but on the 76ers he along with Okafor, Noel, or Embiid would be unstoppable. For example imagine if he ran the pick and roll/pop with Embiid. If his man sagged off he’d have no problem pulling up and sinking the jumper, if his man guarded him too close he’d blow by him and score, he could lob it up to Embiid if the defending big man isn’t positioned well enough, or Embiid could fall back and let Dunn draw the attention and then wait for Dunn to kick it to him for the mid-range or three point shot. I mean the possibilities are truly endless.
Dunn is not flawless and will have to work through weak parts of his game like any rookie point guard, but if he plays to his potential and is drafted by the 76ers, he could be the perfect point guard for them and the point guard of the future on the road to a championship.