Nerlens Noel has been tried at the power forward spot this season to make room for rookie center Jahlil Okafor, but it looks as if Jahlil Okafor works more effectively in that position.
Coming into this season, the Philadelphia 76ers were looking to put one of the worst showings in NBA history behind them. They finished their year with just 18 wins on the season, and several incredibly, and often unbelievably disturbing losses. One of the only bright spots of the team with Joel Embiid sitting out with injury was big man Nerlens Noel and how good he was doing as the team’s center. He was a defensive monster that was good for around 2 blocks a game, and he did a decent job of scoring as well. He was in the conversation for Rookie of the Year. His identity with this team changed suddenly when the Sixers drafted big man Jahlil Okafor out of Duke.
It was clear right away to the team that Okafor could not defend any power forwards in this league, as he would easily get blown by if he was playing defense away from the hoop. On top of that, it was assumed that he didn’t play very well offensively away from the hoop either, at least when the season was getting started.
Looking at Okafor and Noel this year, and thinking ahead about Embiid and Dario Saric who should be here by next season, the team had to make some choices about how to play the two big men, if they should be on the court at the same time, and if so, who would transition to power forward? The team opted to use them both at the same time, as they did and still do appear in many starting lineups together. Noel was the one tasked with switching to the 4 spot as his slender build would hopefully translate to better handles and a smoother outside shot than Jah’s. That wouldn’t entirely be the case, however. To many, Noel has looked incredibly unnatural at the 4-spot. His ball handling skills are awful, and his footwork isn’t much better. It shows when he gets the ball on fast breaks and he has to slow down and stutter his steps.
When both of these guys are on the floor in recent games, it’s still recognized that Noel is the power forward and Okafor is the center, but as the season has gone on we have seen Okafor slip into the power forward spot more and Noel play closer to the basket, as if he is the center. It’s not really clear if this is by design, or if the two players’ skill sets are forcing them to move to positions that are just a bit more natural for each player. Neither one of these guys has the skill set to be a stretch-4, but one of them should certainly be able to play as a traditional 4 when it’s required.
Looking forward, I believe that if both of these guys are still on the floor together, Okafor will transition more to the power forward spot and Noel will move back to his center position that he held last season.
Overall, Nerlens Noel has shot better from the field when compared to Jahlil Okafor, but that’s because Noel takes a huge amount of shots right at the rim, which is something we’d expect from a center. Noel has a higher shooting percentage at the rim, but in every other distance category, Okafor outshoots Noel. The largest margin of difference is within 3-10 feet of the rim, primarily where we would expect a power forward to work. Okafor shoots 43 percent in that zone, and Noel shoots just 31 percent from there.
When both players are on the floor, Nerlens takes 52.9 percent of his shots at the rim, while Okafor takes just 38.5 percent of his shots there. Okafor takes 30.7 percent of his shots from 3-10 feet while Noel takes only 26.5 percent of his shots in that zone. It becomes even more interesting when we look at the 10-16 foot range. Okafor takes 22.6 percent of his shots in that zone, while Noel takes only 12.6 percent, nearly half of Okafor, from that zone.
Noel has taken just 12 shots this entire season from beyond 16 feet with Okafor on the floor. Okafor has doubled that, having attempted 24 shots from beyond 16 feet with Noel on the floor.
Basically what this means is that Okafor, when both guys are on the floor, takes more shots from farther out on the court, and has a higher success rate with those extended shots, like a power forward would.
When it’s just Okafor as the only big man on the floor he may move back to shooting tendencies that resemble those of a traditional center, but it’s clear that when Noel is on the floor, Okafor works better as the player taking shots further away from the hoop, and works better as the power forward. He makes more of the longer shots, and he is able to create more when he gets the ball beyond 5 feet. Okafor’s ability to handle the ball well and either pull up for a jumper or drive into the lane makes him dangerous and difficult to guard. Noel doesn’t have the dribbling ability to get himself into the hoop without turning the ball over from the elbow.
On the defensive end, things are still a different story. Okafor is easy to blow by if you can draw him out from beyond the key, and Nerlens does a better job of playing extended defense. But what’s to stop the Sixers from playing Okafor at the 4 spot on offense and switching him and Noel on defense? That’s practically what has inadvertently been going on already. A game-plan that draws out the best qualities of each player on both ends of the floor could work wonders for this team.
The numbers show that Okafor has been more effective on offense from more areas than Noel has been. Noel works best within the restricted area and primarily in the key, while Okafor can take shots from several areas on the floor and move around a bit more freely with his ball-handling skills.
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Many have accepted the fact that these two players may never be able to co-exist (but see the team’s win over the Brooklyn Nets to get an alternate argument) already and are looking to trade one of the two. Why settle for just moving one of the best young frontcourt players in the league when they could potentially work together well? Development, especially on a multi-player front, takes time. These two have only gotten half of a season to figure out the bumps, and really, they’re coming along nicely for two players who have never been tasked with playing as power forwards previously.
We won’t be able to see these guys play together during All-Star weekend, but for the rest of the season, it looks like we will. It should be embraced, and not looked down on.