What Can Sixers Expect From Sophomore Jahlil Okafor?

Jahlil Okafor has truly emerged as a rookie sensation for the Philadelphia 76ers. But what can the team expect in his sophomore year? That’s when things really start to get good.

Philadelphia Jahlil Okafor is already showing up as an elite offensive talent. He stands as a skyscraper in downtown district of an NBA basketball court, the high rent district directly under or next to the basket. He commands the post, his post, standing tall and strong among titans of other NBA teams.  Lightning flashes, thunder roars, as he wins the battle when the ball is in his hands. He scores almost at will. That has never been a question of his play.  Can he defend?  So far, he remains mortal in that department.

But he’s not as much of a defensive liability as was advertised before the draft. His defense was not his collegiate strong suit, but the Duke Blue Devils were short handed, so the players were coached not to be too aggressive and risk foul trouble.  But that was then, what about now?  NBA opponents guarded by Okafor are shooting 3.4 percent less from the floor than their season averages when he is defending. That’s encouraging.  For a man with an offensive arsenal, it’s a good place to start from.

Offensively, Okafor ranks No. 1 in the league in post-up scoring and ranks in the top 30 in scoring in pick-and-roll situations. He also is a far better free throw shooter than most projected (currently at 69 percent). Yes, he plays for a young, raw, and inexperienced team and at age 20 you can bet he has some maturation, honing, and experience to garner before he will be considered for the NBA all star game. For today, signs point to Okafor becoming a premier scorer in this league and a dominant low-post presence.

And that is just after one season, his rookie year.

But something happens to a player in the NBA after that first year.   They begin to anticipate the routine.   Think back to your first year in a new school versus your second year.   You no longer have the butterflies of anxiety, because you’ve been there and done that. Few persons can perform optimally with anxiety, and anxiety is quite normal. But when familiar with the surroundings, the mind can turn its senses from receiving all signals to focusing on a task at hand.

Training regiments improve. So does communication. With common reference to the previous season, NBA sophomores now understand the vernacular, the “lingo”, of pro basketball.

Next: The Bigger The Better

The Bigger The Better

While the Sixers look to “fit” big men into the limited real estate around the basket, they are also expanding the talents of some very gifted young men. Nerlens Noel, a staunch defender who has shown flashes of offense this year, had spent last summer training to switch to the power forward role.  In fact, it was not even Jahlil Okafor, but the anticipated return to the active roster of Joel Embiid, which prompted Noel to cross-train for the four position.

Ah… but that was then, this is now.  Now, the Philadelphia 76ers, after experimenting with Okafor at center and Noel at power forward, Noel at center and Okafor at power forward, and both Noel and Okafor on the floor as center without the other on the floor, have now found themselves with both centers/power forwards injured.  Minor injuries, but with a season already dictating no chances of playoffs, and plenty of opportunity to remain with the best chances of the first round draft pick, the team is exercising major caution to both of their stars.

Next season, Dario Saric and Joel Embiid will become part of the rotation which already has Richaun Homes, Carl Landry, and the venerable Elton Brand.   While Brand will likely not remain on the roster in 2016, there is a growing belief that Landry may remain as the veteran voice among the young big men.  But while the cast of large looming titans grows larger, the bigger impact will be what our rookie center/power forward evolves into next season.

To judge our second year of Jahlil Okafor, lets take a look at some other big men who have advanced to their second season of the NBA.   We’ll start with one of our own, Nerlens Noel.

Next: Noel Sophomore Season

Nerlens Noel Sophomore Season

Nerlens Noel may have a different style than that of Jahlil Okafor, but he’s in the same system, playing for the same coaches, getting the same analytics feedback, and playing for the same team at the same position(s), albeit not simultaneously.  And so, lets compare his two NBA years so far.

As a rookie, Noel was a defensive standout, generating 8.1 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.8 steals per game while modestly contributing on the offense to the tune of 9.9 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the floor.  His impact was impressive.   But he was rookie shy.   He was absorbing the NBA for the first time, and so, he was caught trying to process so much, so often.

"“I’d go to talk to him, and he’d look away bashfully. He has those saucer-shaped eyes, and you just want to hug him. Then I’ll play text tag with him, and then all of a sudden he just blossoms, like, ‘Really? You’re this thoughtful, articulate, well thought out?’ There’s a lot more going on in Nerlens Noel than people know.” – Philadelphia 76er head coach Brett Brown describing Nerlens Noel’s first season"

He punctuated his rookie effort by leading all rookies in double doubles (18), averaging nearly 2 blocks and 2 steals per game, and he missed just six games after spending the entire previous season on rehab.

Despite migrating to a hybrid center/power forward role, Noel is currently leading the team with 7.9 rebounds, 1.52 blocks and 1.7 steals per game.  His offense has improved to 10.9 points per game. All of this despite averaging two fewer minutes per game this season.  But the greater impact to his game is the fact that he is now fully aware of his environment.

Noel had an excellent interview by Bleacher Report’s Jared Zwerling on April 2015, where he goes into detail about his rookie season.

Next: Noel's Rookie Season- in his words

Noel’s Rookie Season – in his words

Here is an extract from that Bleacher report interview.  You can find the interview in its entirety here:

"My struggles early on this season were more of a mental thing. Gaining that experience helps slow the game down in your head, and you make your moves more confidently. You learn how to place yourself on the court, which started from working last season with Greg Foster, now a Bucks assistant coach, who I’ll train with a bit this summer. Greg really helped me expand my game playing more of a face-up way, especially learning how defenders position themselves. Reading your defender, instead of actually reading yourself and telegraphing a move, was something that took me a while to learn as I started seeing how certain players play. You learn how to get them going one way and always have a counter to that. I’ve also been working on pick-and-roll angles and rolls, as well as posting up more aggressively and knowing when to call loudly for the ball. Even before my rookie season, starting in 2013, I worked closely with Brett to completely rebuild my shot. He didn’t even want me to bring my guide hand over until January of last season. The early focus was one-handed shots with a tight elbow setup just to keep the technique. Before then, I would shoot with a release from the side of my head and the ball would rotate sideways. In fact, at Kentucky, I hadn’t taken a jump shot the whole year. But I was able to finish at nearly 61 percent from the free-throw line this season, which was the team’s goal for me. The Sixers’ attention to details is just crazy—the Sixers have GoPro cameras in the practice facility, and they know the percentages for everything. Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie has come up to me before and told me my free-throw percentage in practice. And nobody was even in the gym. There are so many metrics, and I’m still learning how to read them. But the most important ones for me are the opponents’ field-goal percentage and defensive points in the paint. The Sixers also film your shot, and they’ll put it into an app where you see the progression of it over time and see the little things that you can fix. I think that’s what really helped me so much, being able to visualize my shot, see it on the app and take another shot. The team also shows me the footwork of my idol Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Amar’e Stoudemire—their foot placement and how they step and explode to knock down 15-footers consistently… Only four players in NBA history have averaged at least two blocks and two steals per game in a season. It’s definitely an honor to be close to that type of company, but I think I’m still a long way from where I want to be. Winning Rookie of the Year would be appreciated, but I need to continue to just focus on me and what I have to do to reach the level of play like an All-Star and be an All-Star.– Nerlens Noel as interviewed by Bleacher reports Jared Zwerling"

Next: Strong Starts Make Lasting Careers

Strong Starts Make Lasting Careers

It was important for the Philadelphia 76ers, boasting the youngest roster in the NBA, to react when stories of Jahlil Okafor began to surface about his youthful antics.  Despite the wealth of basketball analysis, the breaking TMZ story of Jahlil Okafor involved in a Boston fracas hit the Sixers front office in their Achilles heel.  What about the youth of the team?  The inexperience and immaturity was simply not part of the basketball analytics equation.

And so, the team began the methodical building of the infrastructure to address the unique needs of a young team.  First the team brought on Jerry Colangelo, who had earned the reputation as an NBA statesman.  Colangelo brought in Mike D’Antoni to assist the overstretched Brett Brown, as well as got the team to bring in Elton Brand to help mentor the young team.

But Colangelo did not stop there.  During a February 2nd 2016 interview, Colangelo stated that Noel was clearly a rim protecting center.   From that point on, the Philadelphia 76ers have renewed efforts to develop Jahlil Okafor at the power forward position.  Meanwhile, Colangelo began to address a different aspect of building a champion team.  He began to focus on the culture of the team.  The reason for this as an immediate priority is to give the Sixers a fighting chance of attracting the elite of the NBA to want to join the team, want to belong to the positive progress.  If you think players in the NBA only focus on records, think again.   Don’t take my word for it, just ask Dwight Howard:

So far, Okafor’s NBA career is certainly off to a solid start.  But his is not lauded, due in large part to the misfortunes of the team he plays for.

So far this season, Jahlil Okafor has averaged a team leading 17.5 points per game, 7.0 rebounds per game, 1.15 blocks and .42 steals per game, on an average of 30 minutes per game. His offense is sound, and will likely improve in 2016. While it will be relative to how many minutes playing time he earns on a more crowded roster next season, it’s safe to expect that he can break the 20 points per game barrier, perhaps upwards of 21.0 points per game. His rebounds will likely grow as well, somewhere in the 7.5-9.0 rebounds per game range. Offensively, Jahlil Okafor will be a team leader.

Next: Focus On Defense

Focus On Defense

But sophomore Okafor needs to improve defense, and I expect the player and team to make that a major focus of his off-season training regiment. In fact, there is some solid analytics to suggest that his sophomore season will lead to an uptick in his defense.  Tracking defensive efforts of offensively aligned center has been tracked, and you can find in depth data here:

Next: Sixers Kneed Okafor

Sixers Kneed Okafor

Right now, Jahlil Okafor is out with a sore shin and swelling in his knee.  At first, this was believed to be a minor shin injury with a game or two absence.  But with the season drawing to a close, and now with swelling in his knee, the team is using extreme caution when discussing the eventual return to the basketball court of their star rookie.

According to head coach Brett Brown:

"“Something felt just not perfect (in the knee). We’ve been treating his shin. During that whole procedure, we’re trying to figure out some swelling in his knee, some soreness in his knee. We’ve known about the knee. It’s way too premature to speculate in any direction. I do feel confident that what has been told to me will be true for the media, that we will know more soon. I can’t quantify what soon means, and then we will share it.”"

EDITORS NOTE:Just as the story went to publication, the following information became available:

If the team cannot safely return Okafor to the floor within the next several games, it’s conceivable that the team may simply shut him down and allow him to begin healing for the off-season and next year.  Playing the top offensive scorer at the end of a season with no true relevance beyond pride is a risky move, and one that no doubt the Philadelphia 76ers will not hesitate to avoid without a better understanding of the knee injury.

EDITORS NOTE:  On Friday, March 11, 2016, the Philadelphia 76ers revealed that Jahlil Okafor’s CT scan revealed a slight meniscus tear. Arthroscopic surgery is scheduled, and the team expects Okafor to sit out six weeks.

Next: Is Joel Embiid Behind Schedule?

For now, he rests on the sideline, joining fellow teammate and big man Joel Embiid. For now, the player, the team, and the fans must wait. Wait for a healthy knee, wait for another opportunity to see his play in action, wait for a new season.  Some have assumed that the team must move one of the three big men before the start of the 2016-2017 NBA season, but as the Sixers have discovered when trying to trade for a solid point guard from the Atlanta Hawks, some teams do well having two players at a critical position who can start.   And with the team’s recent run-in with injuries to both Noel and Okafor at the same time, it’s clear that the 82 game season in the NBA will require the team to ensure quality depth in order to contend.

Jahlil Okafor was a pleasant surprise this season.  But this was just his rookie year.   The best is yet to come.