Forecasting the 2016-2017 Philadelphia 76ers Salary Cap

The Philadelphia 76ers are awash with spendable salary cap funds, but when the team turns the corner upwards, obligations will happen rapidly. How do the Sixers stand looking forward?

The Philadelphia 76ers have taken an contrarian approach to building an NBA championship team. In essence, they have mortgaged today to build tomorrow -whether it be selecting players with injuries or contractual commitments which prevents them from participating in the NBA this season – or whether it is the conversion of players with rapidly increasing value into draft picks in some future NBA draft – the results are the same.

The future. The Philadelphia 76ers are building towards a future. But that future itself comes with a new set of perils if the team succeeds. How so? As players develop, their NBA contractual obligations wane until the team must renegotiate with the player, sign a new player, or trade for or draft a replacement player. No player on the current roster has a contract that extends into the 2020 playing season. In fact, the only players of the Philadelphia 76ers who are contractually obligated to the team in the 2018-2019 season are center Jahlil Okafor, point guard Kendall Marshall, power forward Richaun Holmes, and point guard T.J. McConnell.

But to get past the poor season now ending for the 76ers, the team will need to upgrade and then resign maturing talent. What and when will this all take place? Let’s look at the salary cap situation.

At the end of the 2015-2016 season, the Philadelphia 76ers will be looking at openings at the point guard position vacated by Ish Smith, and at the power forward spot vacated by Elton Brand. For now, the team is projected to have salary commitments for 13 players at a level of just under $33,400,000 next season. Should Dario Saric join the team, he would be bound to play for the Philadelphia 76ers in the rookie scale for one year. That’s just $1,970,000 for his addition. We are up to $35,370,000. If the team gets the first, fourth, 22nd and 26th picks in the 2016 NBA draft, those would cost the team $4,753,000; $3,443,100; $1,159,300; and 1,025,700 respectively. That will sum up to $45,751,100.

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Of that amount, the team has the option to terminate contracts on Sonny Weems, Kendall Marshall, Robert Covington, Isaiah Canaan, Jerami Grant, and T.J.McConnell at no penalty.

So where would the team likely commit salary dollars? Two area, which are quite logical, are the forward and guard positions. As of now, the Philadelphia 76ers spend last in the NBA in those four positions. If the team were to pursue talent via free agency, that would come at a cost of those salary dollars. Spending at the 30th – 40th range would cost the Sixers upwards of $9,000,000 next season per player. Spending at the 30th-40th range for a guard would cost the team upwards of $8,000,000 next year.

With an annual salary cap projecting at $89,000,000 in 2016-2017, the Philadelphia 76ers would need to spend no less that 90% of that amount, or $80,100,000. So as the team projects right now, the team will need to find opportunities to place just shy of $35,000,000 into the pockets of NBA players, even if just for one year. That could be used to bring in a pair of very productive free agents, even if just for a single season. Why would the Sixers sign players for just one year? In order to jump start the team, they will need veterans to compete with their young talent, forcing the players to earn playing time by their performances in both practice and in playing time. It would avoid the “showing up” birthright that top draft picks assume when they expect to start for an NBA team that selected them. It would also give the Sixers a stronger position to attract elite free agent talent to the team in future years.

Why would an NBA player take a short term contract? Simple enough, the NBA salary cap is projected to zoom upwards in the years ahead. Jumping $19,000,000 next year, and up to $109,000,000 in 2018. That is a jump of $39,000,000 in just two years.

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What happens in the following year? At the end of the 2016-2017 NBA season, the Philadelphia 76ers would be faced with re-signing or replacing: guard Isaiah Canaan, newly arrived power foward Dario Saric, power forward Carl Landry, shooting guard Sonny Weems, shooting guard Hollis Thompson, and matching any offers on or re-signing center/power forward Nerlens Noel. The following year, the team will be faced with re-signing small forward Robert Covington, and small forward Jerami Grant, as well as matching any offers on or re-signing Joel Embiid and Nik Stauskas.

The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the least costly teams to pay because they are so very young. Eventually, the team will not benefit from a rookie pay scale, and will contract for players based on fair market value. At that time, wins will likely come at a much more rapid pace. They will need to, because salary dollars will be spent at an equally rapid pace.