Philadelphia 76ers Doomsday Draft Scenario

The Philadelphia 76ers hopes rest on the 2016 NBA draft. If fates scowl at the Sixers once more, is the process derailed? Not by a long shot.

As draft day approaches, we have had occasion to discuss the team’s hopes for the roster next year. Joel Embiid plus Dario Saric plus up to four first round draft picks spells out quite an escalator in term of bringing the Philadelphia 76ers to the next level.

But we know that there is a downside, an all too familiar bad taste left in the mouth when hope forces both feet off the ground. We had hopes of a great draft in 2015, only to watch in horror as the NBA lottery system did what it intended – it landed in the odds of draft picks falling outside of the Philadelphia 76ers. Picks that could have meant so very much to the franchise stayed in the vault, only to come up for another round in this year’s draft. We have considered the bright scenario, but what of the darkest one? What about the doomsday draft?

So what do we know for certain? Well, we know that we have a top four pick in the NBA draft. That’s a certainty. Even if the Philadelphia 76ers find some measure of success at the end of the season, the will likely not overtake the Los Angeles Lakers draft and will remain the odds on favorite to win the top draft pick. But this is not a hopeful article by any means, this article is intended to run the odds against the Sixers, no matter how unlikely.

With some certainty, the Philadelphia 76ers will likely finish last in the NBA. With that finish, the team can end up with no worse that the fourth pick of the NBA draft (35.7% likelihood). But who does that translate into?

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Well, if you believe the 2016 NBA draft top picks are (1) Ben Simmons, (2) Brandon Ingram, (3) Jaylen Brown, (4) Dragan Bender, (5) Kris Dunn, (6) Buddy Hield, (7) Jammal Murray. Add a name or subtract a name if you must, but this is the field. Of these seven players, the Philadelphia 76ers will have four to choose from in a worst case scenario. While the entire fan base would be heartbroken to walk out of this NBA draft with neither Ben Simmons nor Brandon Ingram, the team would likely have an option to choose from Jaylen Brown, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, or Jammal Murray. That would certainly be a step in the right direction. Why name all five? I’m confident that one of the top three teams would be compelled to select Jakob Poetl, who would not be a draft target of the Philadelphia 76ers this season.

The Philadelphia 76ers have the rights to swap picks with the Sacramento Kings. While the team might see little improvement in odds for the first pick, when the team considers that they have a 35.7% chance of picking fourth, the odds improve with that swap. The odds of ending up at the four pick drop to 28.4% with the Kings ending as the seventh worst team in the NBA. So in this scenario, the Sixers fall to four, and they do not swap picks. 28.4% chance of it happening, but it does.

Despite the turmoil that would ensue at the Philadelphia’s first pick of the NBA draft, even more damage would occur at their second pick of the round, the top-three protected Los Angeles Lakers pick. But their is a silver lining on the cloud if their pick does not convey to the Sixers this season. That’s due to the fact that the Lakers are likely to struggle next season as well, and the 2017 NBA draft class is an overall stronger class. If the pick does not benefit the Philadelphia 76ers as a top five pick this season, the Sixers would have a second first round draft pick next year. The 55.8% odds of this pick remaining with the LA Lakers kicks in this year, but rolls over to next year’s draft.

Perhaps we should consider that… neutral.

The third and fourth picks of this NBA draft come from the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder respectively. While both picks will surely happen, these picks currently project to occur at 23 (Heat) and 26 (Thunder). Should either team win a majority of the remaining 12-13 games on their schedule, the picks could fall as low as the 28th pick. Neither the San Antonio Spurs nor the Golden State Warriors could lose enough remaining games to give either room to fall in draft ranks further. While prospects at the lower levels of the first round may not excite you as much as the top half of the round, there are plenty of opportunities to discover solid players who may either fall in the ranks or who had not caught the eye of a majority of teams.

Next: The Potential of Ben Simmons

In a worst case scenario, the Philadelphia 76ers walk away from the 2016 NBA draft with three players – the 4th, 25th, and 28th picks. Is that a far cry from 1, 4, 22, and 26? In some ways, yes. But the team will know the lottery results long before the draft, will know the myriad of scenarios of who is picking, who they will likely select, and who will be remaining on the board. If the fates do not smile on the Philadelphia 76ers, I could most certainly see the team engaging other teams in pre-draft trade discussions to gauge who is available to the team and at what price.

The team will also be prepared to sign free agents next season. With a three year window for playoff success, you can expect to see the Sixers pursuing free agents regardless of the NBA draft lottery. The team will enter the 2016 season with several improvements already in place: the team will have a strong core of returning players who will know what to expect from the Philadelphia 76ers. Rookie Jahlil Okafor will be entering his second season, while second year Nerlens Noel will be entering his third playing NBA season. In fact, with the team returning to a healthy roster next season, the team will be much improved simply by bringing on Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. T.J. McConnell, one of the team’s best kept secrets, will return after having a sensational rookie season.

Even if no draft picks convey, even if no lottery smiles our way, even if the NBA stacks the deck, the Philadelphia 76ers will win many more games next year. This very young roster matures, and it is bolstered by Saric and Embiid. The team will also have time off to absorb the events and lessons from this season. Can the team handle six new players at once? In the worst case scenario, that is down to five and possibly less if the team packages those late round picks in a trade. If that’s the worst that can happen, so be it. One foot on the ground. Let’s see how this turns out.