2017 Won’t be Winning Year for Philadelphia 76ers

Although it’s expected to be much better than this past season, the Philadelphia 76ers and their fans should not expect 2017 to be a winning year.

The Philadelphia 76ers have come a long way, and a lot of waiting will definitely start to pay off this summer. But there is still lots of work to do for this team that has yet to win 10 games as we near the end of March.

The Sixers have implemented a losing culture over the past several seasons, and the fair-weathered fans have been weeded out, leaving a group of diehard, passionate fans. Max Rappaport profiled this electric, loyal, and cult-like fanbase that has been left behind, and it’s a lot of fans who have grown to find faith in losing. Max puts it best when explaining why the fans are okay with losing:

"Those who support The Process do so because they’re sick of existing in the NBA’s purgatory, the middle, where you’re never quite good enough to truly contend for a championship, but where you’re also not quite bad enough to have a realistic shot at acquiring a transcendent player in the draft. We’d rather fail at being great than succeed at being okay."

Though the fans are trusting the losing now, that’s not something these fans want to see continue for much longer. Yes, they do seem a bit off-kilter when compared to the normal NBA fan, as any losing is typically seen as a negative, but they’re seeing the bigger picture. What these fans see is the potential for a few dark years, followed by many brighter years. These fans aren’t completely delusional, they want the winning just like everyone else, just not in the particularly same manner that many seem to see as the “right way” to do it.

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What some of these fans are growing to realize, and what some will be realizing over the coming months, is that next season won’t be a winning one either, even if we do see vast improvement. The fans, although they’ve sat tight for several years, may have to wait a season or so more before they start to see a truly formidable winning team take the floor.

I’m not here to debunk any myths regarding the legitimacy of the way general manager Sam Hinkie and the Sixers have taken to build their team. If there are any flaws, those will show themselves. I am one who agrees that there is value in seeking a higher draft pick (although I do find that there are some flaws with the plan as well). I’m simply here to point out that the Sixers won’t have all the pieces in all the right places next season.

Before I explain, let me define what I am considering a “winning season.” In the context of the Sixers and their rebuild, a fan could consider 30+ wins next year a success and a “winning season” at this point. I too think this is something that could be achievable.

What I am considering a winning season is a year where the Sixers finish with a record above .500. As we look at the NBA standings, .500 is a record that is in the conversation of playoff caliber, in both conferences. The Dallas Mavericks are the last team slated to make the playoffs in the West, with a record just below .500, and the Chicago Bulls in the East are the last team in with a record just above .500. So a winning season would definitely be putting the Sixers in a playoff conversation.

That winning season is not next year, though.

Lots and lots of moving pieces play into the development of the Sixers roster. There are a ton of questions that need to be answered, and the most obvious are in the frontcourt. Joel Embiid will be getting healthy soon, and there’s no way that him, Nerlens Noel, and Jahlil Okafor will have their talents maximized with all three of them on the team. Since Embiid has little trade value, Okafor or Noel will likely be traded.

That trade will not happen soon, though. While some think it may occur this offseason, I believe the Sixers will wait to see if Embiid ever does play an NBA game, and then experiment with Noel and Okafor. This experimentation will lead to some chemistry issues, and thus, more lost games. The Sixers will have to sacrifice some wins in order to figure out which big men to keep around.

Next up is the backcourt, which has plenty of its own questions. Will Ish Smith be kept around? Will Kendall Marshall or T.J. McConnell be given another season to prove or further prove their worth? There will be some experimentation there as well, and the Sixers may bring in a new face to the guard positions. This will take some time to iron itself out.

And of course, the Sixers have a possible four and likely three draft picks in the first round this year. They will bring in two new players to their roster at least, and possibly three if they choose to not shop their last draft pick around. Those players should be skilled (I’ve got my eyes set on Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, both good college prospects) and good basketball players, but there’s typically a learning curve in the NBA.

This year’s draft class is an awful example for what to expect from rookies. If you expect rookies to show out every year like they did this season, you’re going to get let down.

Jahlil Okafor came into the Sixers organization and was a great scorer and basketball player right away. Karl-Anthony Towns was fantastic with the Minnesota Timberwolves right off of the bat. Kristaps Porzingis was a Latvian sensation in New York City with the Knicks.

This isn’t how things usually go. There’s usually one great rookie, but often they take a while to heat up. Devin Booker has been on a typical “good” rookie schedule. Learning the ropes, and playing great towards the end of the year.

Not only will these rookies be getting acclimated to the altered style of pro-basketball, a longer schedule, more traveling, and the celebrity lifestyle, but they will have to fit into a new roster.

Next: The Potential of Ben Simmons

There’s questions all over the place. There’s questions with Jahlil Okafor, there’s questions with the backcourt, and there’s questions to be asked about the course of this rebuild. Next year may be on the upside, but it won’t be a winning year for the Philadelphia 76ers.