The Philadelphia 76ers have a rainbow’s range of possibilities in the 2016 NBA Draft. But if it came down to either the first pick, or the second pick PLUS the Los Angeles Lakers pick at four, which scenario would best benefit the team?
“With the first pick of the 2016 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers select….”
But in this draft, is the top draft pick the end all? In the court of public opinion, the Philadelphia 76ers are torn between the young Ben Simmons who defies conventional logic with his size of a forward but ball control, basketball IQ, and defense of a point guard and the young Brandon Ingram, whose long range shot simply tops off a complete shooting arsenal. If Ben Simmons has a compliment on the 76ers roster in Dario Saric, then Brandon Ingram has a compliment in fellow Duke University in Jahlil Okafor.
Are they evenly matched in potential? Perhaps and perhaps not. But with a team laying down the gauntlet of moving into the next phase of a multi-year rebuild, there is little room for error. As such, the draft has taken on the shape of a two man footrace, both neck and neck with the other.
For now, the Philadelphia 76ers are firmly entrenched with the worst record in the NBA. At that vantage point, the odds of their receiving the top overall pick in the NBA draft is just 25%. So while the top pick allows the team to enjoy the destiny of choosing from the entire draft, it’s still just a 25% chance. But if the team focuses on the top two picks, and is “okay” with either Simmons or Ingram, the likelihood of that happening nearly doubles to 46.5%.
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But the team has a right to swap picks this season with the Sacramento Kings, who stand to receive the top pick in the NBA draft with a chance of 4.3%, and a chance of either the top two picks with 9.2%. Factor those odds in and the results are the Sixers picking the top overall pick at 29.3% chance, and the chance at a top two pick at 55.7% chance. While the top pick is improved, the top two likelihood now becomes a true better than 50/50 chance.
But that’s simply the excitement for the top two pick in this draft – who would be a toss up between Simmons and Ingram.
Another factor in play this year is the first round draft pick of the Los Angeles Lakers. Since the pick is top three protected, the chance of it landing to the Lakers is 19.9% (chance of the first pick), plus 18.8% (chance of the second pick) plus 17.1% (chance of the third pick) for a total of 56.8%. The odds of the pick sliding on over to the Philadelphia 76ers is 31.9% (chance of the fourth pick) and 12.3% (chance of the fifth pick).
Now, I’ve already investigated the worst case scenario, where the Philadelphia 76ers end up with just a fourth pick in this draft. But the possibilities don’t end with a worst case this year. A big part of the team’s fortunes simply align with whether the Laker pick conveys this year. Much like the doomsday scenario, the field of available prospects at the four or five pick if we get the Lakers pick is impressive still, as I had listed in that article:
"The 2016 NBA draft top picks are (1) Ben Simmons, (2) Brandon Ingram, (3) Jaylen Brown, (4) Dragan Bender, (5) Kris Dunn, (6) Buddy Hield, (7) Jammal Murray. Add a name or subtract a name if you must, but this is the field."
And so, with the top two picks gone, and then pulling out either Bender or top center Jakob Poetl at the three pick, the remaining names become the pool of potential Sixers to choose from with the Lakers pick. The silver lining to the cloud of missing out on the Laker pick this year is simply that the 2017 draft is a stronger class. But that costs the Philadelphia 76ers another season of waiting. A pair of back court prospects added to the team alongside the likes of Dario Saric and Joel Embiid would certainly give the team an entire makeover.
Now, before anyone breaks out the calculator, I realize that there is no cause and effect relationship between where the Sixers pick falls versus whether the Lakers pick remains with the Lakers. This is merely a matter of preference. Which “feels” more favorable? To me, it’s simply too close to call. If the Philadelphia 76ers get the top overall pick, they choose their own destiny. They determine from the ranks of scouting and of analytics which NCAA player is most aligned with the team objectives. Foregoing the Lakers pick this year merely adds it to the savings account for next season’s draft from a stronger field.
Next: The 2016-2017 Philadelphia 76ers Focus On Assembly
But if the top two picks are truly too close to call at this point, a boost at either the four or five pick would certainly be welcome come next year. In any case, it’s a wonderful dilemma to face in an NBA draft. That being the case, let’s enjoy it while we can.