Could Philadelphia 76ers Land At 3, 3 Seasons In A Row?

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Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the full first round draft board at the conclusion of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

Philadelphia 76ers picked third in the 2014 and 2015 NBA drafts – choosing Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor respectively. Who do they choose if they land at three this year is anybody’s guess.

The odds of the Philadelphia 76ers landing at the third spot fall at 17.8% for their own pick, plus an additional 5.8% chance from the stock swap rights with the 24th place Sacramento Kings. While it’s by no means the most likely place for the Sixers to pick, it’s been the trend recently, and with that sort of pattern developing, we’d look foolish not discussing the scenario.

I mean, it’s happened twice before.

In previous drafts, the third pick still remained one of the top three choices in the draft. In 2014, the top three choices were shooting guard Andrew Wiggins, small forward Jabari Parker, and center Joel Embiid. Embiid was the favorite at the first pick, but back and foot injuries found him dropping to the Philadelphia 76ers at three on draft night. So too in 2015 the top three choices were center Karl-Anthony Towns, point guard D’Angelo Russell, and center Jahlil Okafor. It was highly expected that the Los Angeles Lakers, who picked second, would select the Duke center Okafor, but they surprised virtually everyone with the selection of Russell, once more finding the 76ers picking a center.

There is bad news and good news in the NBA draft this year. The bad news is that the draft is very likely a two man race between Duke University’s small forward Brandon Ingram and Louisianna State University’s forward Ben Simmons. So what is the good news? The pick at three is filled with options for back court players.

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So how do I determine what the Philadelphia 76ers do at three if they find themselves picking there? Simple enough, I play a statistical model such as that found in the online NBA GM simulation drafts Tankathon.com. Consistently, if the Philadelphia 76ers end up with the third pick, the simulator finds the team picking California’s small forward Jaylen Brown. At four, the team selects Providence’s point guard Kris Dunn. In fact, in some scenarios (such as the Phoenix Suns picking at three and ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers at four) Dragen Bender is picked at three, leaving the team to pick Jaylen Brown at four.

But are Jaylen Brown or Kris Dunn selections in the draft truly the “consolation prize” that it would become on draft night? I mean, these are two top five draft picks on many boards, so what do each bring to the Philadelphia 76ers?

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