Philadelphia 76ers picked third in the 2014 and 2015 NBA drafts – choosing Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor respectively. Who do they choose if they land at three this year is anybody’s guess.
The odds of the Philadelphia 76ers landing at the third spot fall at 17.8% for their own pick, plus an additional 5.8% chance from the stock swap rights with the 24th place Sacramento Kings. While it’s by no means the most likely place for the Sixers to pick, it’s been the trend recently, and with that sort of pattern developing, we’d look foolish not discussing the scenario.
I mean, it’s happened twice before.
In previous drafts, the third pick still remained one of the top three choices in the draft. In 2014, the top three choices were shooting guard Andrew Wiggins, small forward Jabari Parker, and center Joel Embiid. Embiid was the favorite at the first pick, but back and foot injuries found him dropping to the Philadelphia 76ers at three on draft night. So too in 2015 the top three choices were center Karl-Anthony Towns, point guard D’Angelo Russell, and center Jahlil Okafor. It was highly expected that the Los Angeles Lakers, who picked second, would select the Duke center Okafor, but they surprised virtually everyone with the selection of Russell, once more finding the 76ers picking a center.
There is bad news and good news in the NBA draft this year. The bad news is that the draft is very likely a two man race between Duke University’s small forward Brandon Ingram and Louisianna State University’s forward Ben Simmons. So what is the good news? The pick at three is filled with options for back court players.
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So how do I determine what the Philadelphia 76ers do at three if they find themselves picking there? Simple enough, I play a statistical model such as that found in the online NBA GM simulation drafts Tankathon.com. Consistently, if the Philadelphia 76ers end up with the third pick, the simulator finds the team picking California’s small forward Jaylen Brown. At four, the team selects Providence’s point guard Kris Dunn. In fact, in some scenarios (such as the Phoenix Suns picking at three and ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers at four) Dragen Bender is picked at three, leaving the team to pick Jaylen Brown at four.
But are Jaylen Brown or Kris Dunn selections in the draft truly the “consolation prize” that it would become on draft night? I mean, these are two top five draft picks on many boards, so what do each bring to the Philadelphia 76ers?
Next: Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown is a 6′ 7″ 220 pound small forward freshman from the University of California. When we talk about the prospects who are most intriguing to the Philadelphia 76ers, we cannot ignore the fact taht this is a transition team with the most turnovers in the NBA.
While the team has improved in that area dramatically, it is still an area of great concern. The team has averaged 16.2 turnovers per game this season, but has brought that number down into the low teens in the month of March.
OFFENSE
Brown would help improve on that number, as he truly shines in transition. Brown is a player who works very hard on the defensive glass, which provides him opportunities to begin fast break offenses with a cool grab-and-go. He can push the ball up the court, can change speeds in a fraction of a second and attack a scrambling defense with explosiveness. He can finish at the rim with surprising power, even able to elevate to a nice shooting look out of one foot. Brown could find the Sixers a great place to land, as he be joining teammates who would push the ball as well, linking him into the alley oops of Nerlens Noel and as a counterpart to the elite passing of incoming Dario Saric. He would even slot into an excellent counterbalance to an offense focused on a post game featuring either Jahlil Okafor or Joel Embiid.
Strengths
But the Sixers need more in a wing man than just a kid who can pass, and Brown delivers. He has proven an ability to create shots for himself in isolation and out of the pick-and-roll. He won’t win on his burst moves, but he has a hesitation stutter step that adds enough confusion to allow him to get by his man one-on-one when a path to the basket opens up. Brown is posting a 53.5 percent free throw rate while averaging 8.5 foul shots per 40 minutes.
Weaknesses
He has weaknesses, but they align nicely with the Sixers development. He makes poor choices of shot selection. Despite being a poor outside shooter, Brown takes a lot of pull-ups despite showing side-to-side fluidly. He can make excellent use of shot fakes to create separation but holds onto the ball too long, eventually releasing his shot on his way down, missing 72 percent of his 52 jump shots on the season. The great news is? This can all be corrected with the Philadelphia 76ers basketball analytics.
DEFENSE
Strengths
Brown possesses the physical profile to be an impact defender and provide positional flexibility. He gets on a stance defending on the ball and stays in a stance on the weak-side as well, enabling him to react with quickness — with his speed allowing him to close out to shooters and keep his balance in the process, which makes it tough for the opponent to blow by him off the bounce. He has good lateral quickness to keep pace in isolation and has a 7-0 wingspan to contest shots effectively and be a threat to block shots as the trailer recovering from navigating over ball-screens. He has strength to box out bigger players and plenty of athleticism chasing the ball off the rim, collecting 19.3 percent of opponents’ misses this season.
Weaknesses
Despite his ability to leap off the ground in a pinch and his positioning defending close to the basket, Brown has blocked just nine shots in 17 appearances. Moreover, his length and wingspan has not yet translated into shutting down passing lanes. He has not defended with active hands guarding on the ball, also recording just nine steals in 17 appearances.
Overall, this is a young man who is a top NBA project but one who has the need to continue pursuing his game to become an NBA polished veteran. His shot selection and defensive approach weaknesses are quite common with NBA rookies, and if selected by the Philadelphia 76ers, will be immediately addressed and continue to be a focus area. His upside is truly an elite two way player and that definitely will place him on the short list on the Sixers potential draft selections.
Next: Kris Dunn
Kris Dunn
Kris Dunn is likely the top rated point guard in this draft, and the point guard is definitely a position the Philadelphia 76ers will seek to further address this off-season. Their reunion with current starting point guard Ish Smith has only temporary, as he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. The team allowed Smith to seek a contract elsewhere at the end of last season, and he signed on for a year with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Dunn is a 6’3″ 205 pound prospect from Providence University. He is a junior, which translates into his entering the NBA at a fairly mature 22 years of age. Dunn becomes a curious prospect to the Philadelphia 76ers in two ways. If the team’s own pick lands in the three or four spot, he is definitely in play. But he is also in play if the Sixers land the four or five pick from the Los Angeles Lakers. His is a name worth remembering.
The Philadelphia 76ers have had two challenges in the point guard position this season, shooting accuracy (when the one position takes shots) and defense. Dunn can address both.
OFFENSE
Strengths
Dunn can take charge of a game, particularly against a formidable opponent. The 6’4” junior point guard went for 13 points (5-10 FG), 14 assists (six turnovers, though), 5 rebounds, and 4 steals before fouling out with 16 seconds left in overtime in a late in the season victory over Villanova. Dunn unequivocally has the keys to Providence’s offense: assisting at 47.5% (first in nation), steal rate of 5.2% (eighth in nation).
He was a projected lottery pick last year before deciding to return to school after two successive seasons with injuries. We actually addressed his potential in a well written piece from Jaylen Young in February, but with the approach of the NBA lottery, it’s a good time to revisit the young man’s potential. He has a very reliable jump shot, and has been discovering accuracy from the perimeter as he has boosted his three point shooting accuracy to 37%. That is compounded by his relying more and more on the long range shot.
Weaknesses
Dunn takes chances, and there lies the rub. He can thread an impervious defense with laser-like accuracy, but miscalculate later in the game. Turnovers, the bane of the Sixers, is also a huge challenge to Dunn. But that comes with the territory of being a point guard with a team so reliant upon your passing.
DEFENSE
Strengths
Dune does defense. In fact, the focus of most scouting reports remain on his jumper, offensive arsenal, and passing proficiency. But defense is likely where this young man will hang his NBA Jersey. What many overlook about the junior All-American is that much of his play-making ability is driven by the havoc he creates on defense. Providence is not a statically intimidating team, but they have found remarkable succes through an unusually prescient defense led by the prolific play of its superstar, Dunn.
Spearheading this defense is Dunn, who ranks second nationally in steal percentage at 6.5 percent. How does he do it? Dunn simply put is a gambler, and his length and defensive awareness enable him to read passing lanes and generate easy points. Being 6’4″ gives Dunn a height advantage at his position, which will be negated in the larger bodied NBA, but the most impressive part of his defensive ability lies in his lateral quickness. That will carry him far at the next level. And given his rare combination of quickness and size for a point guard, it isn’t surprising that he also possesses an ability to block shots.
"Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress notes that, “Defensively, Dunn has all the tools you look for in a guard — elite size and length, a great frame, quick hands and feet, and outstanding instincts getting in the passing lanes — resulting in some extremely impressive plays.”"
Next: When Can We Expect To See Embiid Play?
Weaknesses
Live by the sword, die by the sword. Just as Dunn’s defensive play-making abilities stand out, it also comes at a question to his discipline and responsibility, areas that his NBA opponents will be more than happy to exploit at the next level.
"Ed Isaacson of NBADraftBlog expressed voiced concern his gamble rate, stating that Dunn “tends to gamble, including often leaving his man completely, no matter where he is on the floor, to try and force a turnover. This will work to some degree at the college level, but wouldn’t at the NBA level. Isaacson went on to say that “Dunn’s greatest strength is probably his awareness to see where the offense is moving and to react quickly enough to jump passing lanes when he has the opportunity.”"
All in all though, few argue about Dunn’s general defensive instincts. If the Sixers feel a need to shop for a two way point guard with incredible upside, then the inability to obtain Ben Simmons would surely have some of the sting alleviated by grabbing nearly as proficient Kris Dunn.
If the 76ers fail to land either of the top two picks in the NBA draft this year, it will not be the end of the world. In many ways, the team will find a player at either three or four in this NBA draft to possess virtually all of the skills needed to bolster the Sixers’ production next season. And there is something to be said for picking up a prospect who is a little hungrier than the rest.
This could work out very nicely for Philadelphia.