A huge hole in the Philadelphia 76ers lineup is the defender of an opponent’s marksman wing man. Nicolas Batum or Harrison Barnes are projected as free agents who could make a huge difference next season
The Philadelphia 76ers have some pieces that had worked, do work, and will work moving forward. That is the nexus, the core, group who include Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant, and perhaps Nik Stauskas and T.J. McConnell. The 76ers also have some players whose upside may overshoot their original forecast, and will raise eyebrows eventually in their NBA career.
But the preparation for the 2016-2017 is just weeks from arriving, and the team must make it a priority to sign players who can patrol the perimeter. Golden State Warriors reserve Harrison Barnes and the Charlotte Hornets Nicolas Batum are two players who deserve to be closely watched. They are two players who are projected to free agency, and fit a role that is currently lacking on the 76ers roster: two-way wing players.
But before we break into that analysis, we should reflect on the machinations of who we have on the roster. Who is “in the pipeline” and why are we so quick to abandon their development to jump ahead to a veteran?
Well, let’s start off at a place we know. Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, and Nerlens Noel, by common agreement, are certainly players who will help carry the team to the next level. But the team has two veterans: Carl Landy, and Elton Brand. Both there to mentor the players off the court, and lead these players by their example on the court. It is mind-boggling to see the calm patient influence of either man when they take the floor. Neither is rattled. Both will take what the defense gives them. They are savvy, astute players who show the younger guys the power of being smart on the basketball court.
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Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers have Hollis Thompson, Robert Covington and Jerami Grant at small forward (albeit Grant will play power for the team as well), and the line-up has Isaiah Canaan and Nik Stauskas at shooting guard. Of the five, only Grant excels at defense. Both Covington and Stauskas have been taken under head coach Brett Brown’s wing and been encouraged to develop into two-way threats – but that is a journey of academics, as neither has an example on the floor. Thompson and Canaan are the “artillery” for the team – with Thompson shooting a respectable 38.3% on treys, while “Canaanball” has been shooting 36.0% (an amazing anomaly as he shoots 35.8% from the floor).
That is not to say that players will not develop, but at what pace? Josh Wilson wrote a nice article on Stauskas, highlighting the demands of basketball on the young Canadian. We’ve highlighted Covington’s mid-season surge, as well as the unique qualities of Canaan, and how other NBA teams make use of the three point expert. More recently, we’ve discussed the contribution of Canaan in the future roster. We have some of the parts, but we cannot assemble an engine with these pieces. We need one or two players who can bring all these skills together into one guy on the floor.
That at least is the ultimate hope of Brown, who is noticeably excited at the thought of this off-season and what it can mean for the team:
"Now we will get into the free-agent game. It’s the first time in my time in Philadelphia that we have done that. We haven’t gotten into the free-agent game with anybody. Now what that place means in a quality of wins, we don’t know. We don’t know who the team is yet. But the path and the plan will take a left turn in a more legitimate way in trying to build it in a more expedited way.” – Brown discussing the commitment of the team to improve in the 2016 off-season."
In short, we have players with the pieces, but no one player meeting all the demands of the wing position. That’s why the team needs to shop in free agency (or trade). Much like the big men learning from wiley veterans, the wings need to see a living example of how to improve their overall game. Let’s look at what might be available this off-season: Nicholas Batum or Harrison Barnes.
Next: Batum? Oui!
Batum? Oui!
The Philadelphia 76ers just had an upfront and personal view of the Charlotte Hornet’s small forward, Nicholas Batum. In two games, Batum rang up 38 points on 48% shooting from the floor, with 15 rebounds and 19 assists. It seemed the only thing that was not working for him was his three point shooting, where he shot a mere 27%. But for the season, he drops those shots in at nearly a 40% pace. While Batum is in his seventh year of the NBA (which is slightly over the four-five year window we expect is being targeted by the Sixers), he has been a very productive veteran. His season averages with the Hornets are 15.1 points per game, 5.8 assists, 6.3 rebounds, .6 blocks and .9 steals per game. Batum is a wing man, as he has played both small forward and shooting guard for much of his seven year NBA career.
He’s due to show up as a free agent in 2016. But his is a superior skill-set in a seller’s market, as virtually all NBA teams will be shopping for wing men. The talent is there, and has always been there. He is a player who has all the right skill sets to succeed in the NBA. He’s productive on offense, and productive on defense. But the talk of max contracts may have reached his ear, and priced him awfully high for what he delivers. Experts who talk about Batum never question his abilities to excel in the NBA, but they do question his heart. That creates a risk for the Sixers, who will clearly need to overpay for the player to sign him, which could infect the locker room. If he could show fortitude on a Sixers team which needs the steadying hand of a veteran like Carl Landry or Elton Brand , he could be ideal to bring on board even at a max short term deal. That would allow the Sixers to amp up their overall competitiveness, give an insightful player to the rookies who will take over at wing eventually, and give Batum a quick but solid payday.
But it’s certainty that the Hornets will let Batum test the free agency market without a push to resign him.
"“On the court he’s such a great player – his playmaking ability, his leadership ability, he can score the basketball. And it’s not just at the offensive end. He keeps us organized defensively and can guard so many different positions. And he’s been a leader in the locker room all year long.” – Charlotte Hornets teammate Marvin Williams discussing Batum’s impact."
Batum has contributed solidly to the Charlotte Hornets, and as such would likely be given a priority of resigning with the team. But if he holds fast on his salary expectations in this weak market for wings, he will likely be moving to a new team to find that kind of money. The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the few teams who can give it easily. Keeping the contract to a short one or two year deal should allow the Sixers to develop his replacement while he earns enough to stockpile for the next move to a championship caliber team.
Next: Closing the Barnes door
Closing the Barnes door after the horse has bolted
Another option is the Golden State Warriors Harrison Barnes. Although he is also likely to be hotly pursued by his current team, the Warriors have budgeted an amount for Barnes in the $16 million per year / four years area to keep his salary in line with that of other players on the roster. But like Batum, Barnes is interested in determining where and for how much he is willing to play next season.
Clearly the only attraction to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers for this player is the financial aspect. A large short term contract (2 years max salary) could persuade the young man to come on board with the Sixers. If the team improves as rapidly as hoped for, he’s a key player on a rapidly emerging team who can name his price and team in three years. If the team does not improve rapidly, he’s been paid top dollar for his experience and can jump onto a better prospective team.
So why is he in such high demand? Two way is the new “chic” direction of the NBA. Barnes is averaging 12.4 points per game while shooting 39.5 percent from the three-point line, and he is also an above average defender. Being a two-way player is very valuable in this league, and Barnes is worth a salary that would pay him eight figures over the next five or six years.
Barnes has also played twice against the Philadelphia 76ers. In two games, he has averaged 10.5 points per game, shooting at 40% from the floor and 60% from three-point range. He’s also averaged 4.0 rebounds per game, 1.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game. His contribution, as Batum’s, is on the defensive side of the ball as a perimeter defender. In both games, Philadelphia had difficulty sinking three pointers against Barnes’ defensive prowess.
Of the two, Barnes is clearly of the right “age window” for the Sixers plan, himself being just a three year veteran with huge upside. Since he will be a restricted free agent, the Warriors will have the opportunity to match any offer. But Philly’s offer will automatically need to be a true premium just to attract the player. This one could work very well if executive Jerry Colangelo and president and general manager Sam Hinkie could pull it off.
Next: When Can We Trust Joel Embiid is Good to Go?
The other unspoken aspect of the benefits of either Batum or Barnes is that they have that “Charles Barkley” like trait in that they can slide up or down the lineup, using their speed and strength to defend larger bodies, or sliding down to create incredible mismatches in their favor. We know that Brett Brown loves to set his lineup to maximize how his team matches up against his opponent. The placement of either Batum or Barnes on this lineup gives him the ability to position Saric, Embiid, and potential his wing to create true mismatches. The value of Ben Simmons in that scenario cannot be overstated, setting him in as a point guard through power forward truly gives this team the potential to go beyond the small ball version of the Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs up to the next level – tall ball.
The key to this evolution of the team, and perhaps even of the game of basketball as we know it is to give the team the right players. We can judge the seriousness of the planning by how aggressive the Sixers are this off-season. Perhaps it’s all part of an imaginary future that will never truly be realized. But the only way to discover that is to step forward boldly.