When Can We Trust Joel Embiid is Good to Go?

Joel Embiid may be the biggest and most important piece of the Philadelphia 76ers rebuilding process. When can we trust he’s good to go?

Joel Embiid was drafted in 2014 out of Kansas University. The Philadelphia 76ers took him with the third overall pick in that year’s draft. Still, this dominant big man has yet to see a single second of NBA action.

The Philadelphia 76ers knew going into the draft selecting Embiid that he was not completely healthy. He was coming off of multiple injuries, and would have to undergo surgery that summer to repair a navicular bone in his left foot.

His rehabilitation would stretch all throughout his should-have-been rookie season, and he wouldn’t see the floor at all. Embiid was seen multiple times over the summer without his boot, as well as running up a staircase in Las Vegas at the Philadelphia 76ers’ Summer League games. Shortly after that, it was announced that Embiid would have to get the same surgery he had done just over a year ago on his navicular bone yet again, because it had been re-broken, or never fully repaired.

More from The Sixer Sense

It wasn’t clear why this was, or when exactly it happened, but the Sixers had to roll with the punches. Embiid got the surgery, and begun rehab again. His rehab has included multiple trips to Qatar to a world-class rehab facility called Aspetar.

The most recent development in Embiid’s story is that rookie Jahlil Okafor (who finished his rookie season averaging over 17 points per game) may have his future hinging on Embiid’s health, according to Keith Pompey of Philly.com.

My first question is, of course, why Okafor and not Nerlens Noel? I’m not arguing the fact that one of these big men eventually has to go.

Sure, you can try to balance minutes and positional rotations between Embiid, Noel, and Okafor, but it’s going to be incredibly difficult, and it’s going to mess with players’ rhythms. Not all of these guys will stick around, that’s almost a given.

I’m not here to argue who to trade (although I’ve already concluded that at the moment, Nerlens Noel is the best option) but when to make the trade. I agree, the trade itself — not necessarily Okafor’s future — is dependent on Embiid’s health. If he’s not healthy, then yeah, you can continue to try and work Noel and Okafor together. But when can we be confident in Embiid?

We can’t know for sure, because a lot of Embiid’s development is kept behind closed doors. That’s by design. Right now, though, before he’s ever seen the NBA in a competitive manner (that means Summer League, preseason, and regular season) it’d be downright unheard of to trade Okafor or Noel assuming that Embiid is healthy. Something could completely change when he gets out there to play real competitive basketball.

So, once he’s out on the floor, getting 20-25 minutes regularly, when do you decide he’s been consistently playing enough to trade another big man? One month seems too premature. A player can play healthy for one month and experience a setback the next. A few months seems fairly healthy.

Half a season to a full season may be much too long. Sure, it allows you to see what Embiid’s status is, but it creates chemistry issues with the three big men trying to play together, and therefore, basketball that will not win games. The goal next year is to win more.

Although half a season seems too long, I think that’s right about where the Sixers should go. Embiid will hopefully suit up a few weeks into next season, and start playing regular minutes a few weeks after that. Add about a half a season onto that, and that brings you up to the trade deadline, where the Sixers could leverage a huge deal for Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor, and get something big in return. The trade deadline of next season, at least right now, seems to be the most attractive time to trade a big man, if you’re depending trades on Embiid.

Next: Nik Stauskas: Journey to Find a Home

Ultimately, this is going to be up to the Sixers’ front office. They know when Embiid is comfortable, and know how he’s feeling. It’s a lot of guesswork for us as fans.