What Happens If Joel Embiid Is Better Than His Reputation?

Embiid’s upside

Joel Embiid’s arrival to the team has taken two years. Combined with his injury ending season with Kansas, he’s already been over two years away form the game of basketball. Anyone who steps away from anything for two years will have plenty of rust to knock off, and we would be foolish to expect JoJo to arrive to the Sixers roster in flawless fashion.  But before we try to stomp two feet on the ground, we should focus on what the potential of Joel Embiid truly is.

Per Daniel Meyers, creator of basketball’s Box Plus Minus (BPM) index, Joel Embiid entered the NBA two years ago as the third highest prospect in measurable history.  Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelican big man (center/power forward) placed highest in the index with 18.7.  Karl Anthony Towns, last years top drafted player, arrives in second with a BPM index of 17.3.  Joel Embiid places third on that list with 14.9.

What that measures is a relative comparison of a ” player’s box score information and the team’s overall performance to estimate a player’s performance relative to league average. BPM is a per-100-possession stat, the same scale as Adjusted Plus/Minus: 0.0 is league average, +5 means the player is 5 points better than an average player over 100 possessions (which is about All-NBA level), -2 is replacement level, and -5 is really bad.”

In relative terms, Joel Embiid is very very good in comparative terms to other NBA players.  Amplifying this measurement is the limited amount of formal coaching and organized team play the young man has experienced.  But don’t equate lack of experience to a young man without basketball knowledge, instincts, or aptitude. From the official NBA prospect analysis of the NBA, the glaring weaknesses of Joel were states as: Will back issues persist?  Has to get bigger and stronger.  And finally inexperienced. So we know that Joel Embiid is now 7’2″ and in much better shape to play basketball.  We know that despite being rehabbing for two years, he has been immersed in an NBA basketball program, spoken with NBA caliber talent, watched Sixers games, spoken with coaches.  So he may not be more experienced in relative terms, but he’s certainly had time to enhance his basketball IQ and perspective.

ALSO ON SIXER SENSE:  Reports: Joel Embiid Further Along Than We Thought

But the fun begins when you look at his strengths.  Length, mobility, explosive, high IQ, good rebounder and great shot blocker.  Inside and outside scoring potential.  Joel Embiid was a good chance to have ended up the top rated prospect in the 2014 NBA draft, but his injuries scared off teams until the Philadelphia 76ers picked him.  His college basketball stats were good:  11.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.6 bpg, 2.4 tpg, 23.1 mpg, .626 FG, .200 3PT, .685 FT .  If you could combine the talents of Nerlens Noel into one player, you will most closely end up with Joel Embiid.   Defensively, he will perform.   He’s got the size and the intelligence to create havoc in the vicinity of the basket.  That will not be a problem.  Offensively, how he performs in the NBA is still in question.   But that question weighs more heavily on the team built around him than his own abilities.

Here is the latest and greatest video of the young Cameroon showing his stuff.

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