Joel Embiid’s Rookie Season Will Go One of Two Ways

Joel Embiid‘s NBA Career Has Come To A Fork In The Road

As many NBA fans know, Joel Embiid has not played a single game in over two years. The whole situation has been frustrating but it is looking more and more like Embiid will play his first career game next season. Due to Embiid missing so much time, his rookie season will go one of two ways in my opinion. It will either be everything we wished for, or it will be disappointing and I don’t think there is any in between. I’ll save the best for last and describe the disappointing season first.

Path I – The Disappointing Season:

Ever since Embiid was drafted back in 2014 he has had the label on him to be the savior of the franchise and the next great NBA big man. He has been compared to Hakeem Olajuwon and Tim Duncan the past few years and for good reason. But as most fans know, high expectations can either make or break a player. I think with all of these expectations, pressure, Embiid’s age, and anticipation for Embiid to play, anything short of an above-average individual rookie season will be a disappointment.

While of course the most disappointing season would be Embiid getting seriously hurt again, there are other things that could happen besides injury that could lead to a disappointing season. While Embiid was a straight up monster in college and has gotten taller and stronger since then, we still have to see how he handles being guarded by NBA big men. Embiid turned 22 years old last month and is the age of a college senior. College seniors usually don’t go high in the draft because of their age and they are expected to come in right away and produce. If Embiid comes back after two years of NBA nurturing and doesn’t produce, I think it would be a serious problem.

While Embiid is a very quick learner, the NBA is still a much more skilled, tougher, smarter, and grueling league than the NCAA and there are much more games with the games being longer. No matter what a person does in college or overseas, there are no guarantees about how a player will perform once they step foot on an NBA court. We’ve seen plenty of Embiid workouts the past couple years and his shot looks amazing for a big man. But those videos are exactly what they are; workouts. Many NBA players shoot like Stephen Curry in workouts or shootarounds but they make a lot less when the lights are actually on in a real game.

All I’m saying is that two years in the basketball world is a very long time to miss and even Michael Jordan who was the best player in the world at the time he took nearly a two year layoff looked worse and rusty when he came back. Not to mention he wasn’t hurt or doing rehab during that period he missed. So imagine the learning curve a player who hasn’t played an NBA game ever will have who hasn’t played the minutes or done anywhere near what Jordan accomplished before he took his layoff.

Not only that, but the player is coming off injury and re-injury. These are things Philadelphia 76ers fans have to think about and I think there is a very real possibility Embiid doesn’t look anything like a franchise player in his first year. While Embiid has a plethora of moves and great defensive instincts, he is still raw in some ways due to the fact he started playing basketball much later than other young NBA players.

Path II – The Ideal Season:

Now that we got the bad stuff out of the way, let’s talk about the total opposite way Embiid’s rookie season can go. What makes projecting Embiid’s rookie season so hard is that many of things I just described that could lead to a disappointing season could also lead to a great season. For example, while it is true Embiid is the age of a college senior and has played the same amount of NBA minutes as one (0 minutes), he technically still has much more NBA experience. For the past two years Embiid has had a front row seat to NBA games and has been working around NBA players. He’s had plenty of time to analyze the game up close and personal.

He already knows what it is like traveling from city to city and being on his own. He has been working with possibly the best developmental staff in the league for two years straight. Although he had a injured foot, that doesn’t stop anyone from working on their shooting form. Embiid is such a quick learner as evidenced by him starting basketball late and going from a less talked about player to the projected number one pick in the same season. With that in mind and knowing he has been able to work on his shot the past couple years, there is a very great chance he could be a legitimate three point shooter by the time he returns and for a man his size that is very scary for the rest of the league.

While many people view having three big guys like Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, and Nerlens Noel on the same team a bad thing, it is a great thing for Embiid’s development on offense and defense. Noel for example could already be classified as an elite defender in my book. Assuming Embiid is healthy to play one-on-one games, it would be amazing for his development trying to score on Noel in practice everyday.

Once he learns how to consistently score on someone like Noel, it be a walk in the park for him to do it against big men less defensively talented than Noel and there are a lot of starting NBA big men who are worse defenders than Nerlens. Also while Okafor isn’t a great overall defender, he has the makings of a great post defender considering no one can push him around (he’s much stronger than Noel) and he has a 7’6 wingspan which not too many guys have. Trying to score on these guys everyday in practice would make Embiid very sharp offensively.

Ever since high school scouts knew Okafor would be one of the top scoring big men once he got to the league and he proved that in his rookie season with a wide variety of post moves, face-up game, and averaging 21 points per 36 minutes. Once Okafor gets the ball in the post and is guarded by one player, he is practically un-guardable no matter who is sticking him. While his post play gets the most shine, he is a very great ball handler for a big man and consistently fakes the opponent out. If Embiid could learn to somehow contain Okafor, then he’d be ready for anybody big man in the league defensively. There’s an old saying that iron sharpens iron and the 76ers three big men in practice would be a perfect example of that.

If everything goes right there is a very real chance that per minute Embiid has a rookie season as great as Karl-Anthony Towns or Blake Griffin and just flat out dominates. The reason I say per minute is because I doubt he will play as many minutes per game his rookie season as the other two due to him coming goff an injury and how cautious the 76ers staff is when dealing with an injury.

Which Season Will Happen?

While both scenarios have a great chance of happening, I can’t really say which one I think will actually happen because it’s kind of like a coin toss with how his rookie season will turn out. If I had to choose I’d lean more towards the optimistic view not just because I am a fan of the team, but just because Embiid is so physically dominating and he learns faster than any player I’ve ever seen. There are very few teams that he could be on where he could battle guys like Okafor and Noel in practice everyday. That is a very great luxury to have. Even in the optimistic view I think he’d be rusty in his first ten games and then would start dominating as the season goes on just like how his freshman college season was.

Next: Was Danny Ferry The Better Choice For GM Of The Philadelphia 76ers?

Which way do you think Joel Embiid’s rookie season will turn out? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. We’d love to hear from you.