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Nerlens Noel Needs Offense To Become All-Star

By Bret Stuter

Apr 10, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Nerlens Noel (4) looks to get past Milwaukee Bucks center Miles Plumlee (18) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Wells Fargo Center. The Milwaukee Bucks won 109-108 in OT. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Nerlens Noel (4) looks to get past Milwaukee Bucks center Miles Plumlee (18) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Wells Fargo Center. The Milwaukee Bucks won 109-108 in OT. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nerlens Noel Is Completing His Second NBA Season. But with his defensive credentials, he simply needs to improve his offense to become an NBA All-Star

The Philadelphia 76ers need three players to excel, in order to contest for an NBA championship. At least, that is the conclusion of basketball analytics.  And so, the fundamental task of building an NBA champion is not to sign up 15 very good players, but rather to find three players who excel.  We know that Jahlil Okafor has plenty of promise on the offensive side of the board.  We know that Nerlens Noel has plenty of promise on the defensive side of the board.  And we know that Joel Embiid, still to play in his first NBA basketball game, is expected to perform on par with Okafor on offense and Noel on defense.

The problem for the Philadelphia 76ers is the issue that all three very talented players play at the center position.  But there is a silver lining to even that dilemma left in the wake of Sam Hinkie.  An NBA center is one of the most difficult positions to fill with talent.  In fact, it was that fact which led to the creation of the small ball offense – there simply were not enough elite centers in the NBA.

Perhaps that is why the Sixers have stockpiled three in the past three years?

But there is a risk in overlooking the contributions of the second year center, Nerlens Noel.  While he is certainly the “veteran” of the group, his specialization remains on the defensive side of the court. So, just how well does he serve the team on defense?

His only two seasons in the NBA are among the top four defensive performers in any season of any player.  50% of the NBA best in one player in both of his two seasons.   When you examine the track record of some of the NBA players who are noted for defense, or simply defensive focused statistics, you find that the players do not burst into the NBA as a scoring leader of the league, or even of their team.  But if you sample some of the better defensive players (I selected DeMarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside, and DeAndre Jones for this informal analysis), you find a rather ho-hum offensive production from them in their first NBA season: Cousins scored 14.1 PPG, Whiteside was a mere 1.2 PPG, and Jordan was just 4.3 PPG.  Nerlens Noel’s rookie season was a rather respectable 9.9 PPG, particularly when considered among the NBA best in defense.

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The curious point to be made in all of this is that in each of the other three players, offensive output improved rapidly: Cousins exploded from 14.1 to 22.7 in just his fourth season.  Whiteside rocketed from 0.0 his first year to 14.2 PPG in his fourth year, despite sitting out two entire seasons, and Jordan jumped from 4.3 up to 7.4 by year four, but continued to improve all the way to 12.8 PPG in his eighth NBA season.  By that same trajectory, Nerlens Noel ought to be flirting with 20.0 PPG in year five.  Next season, he enters his third year.

If Nerlens Noel manages to remain a staunch defender, plus expand his offense to achieve that 20.0 PPG production in the future, he will certainly be considered strongly for an appearance as an NBA all-star.  That’s part of the dilemma facing these Philadelphia 76ers.   Offense is the easy path to elect.  Pick a scorer to play, and then hope you can outscore your opponent. That is the Mike D’Antoni template, and the teams built for him by the Colangelos (both Jerry and Bryan) back in the days of the Phoenix Suns heyday.

In the meantime, the Golden State Warriors have taken the Phoenix Suns small ball offensive focus and simply infused defense into it.  Offense gets you to the playoffs, but defense wins you championships.  Will the Philadelphia 76ers, should the Philadelphia 76ers, or even can the Philadelphia 76ers ignore the huge upside of Nerlens Noel in the hopes of building something better?  Or does the team abandon the tremendous upside of Jahlil Okafor, and cling to the promising offensive improvements of their veteran center?

Next: Jaylen Brown Can Be The Philadelphia 76ers Fall Back Plan

Sam Hinkie may have allowed positions  in the lineup to suffer from inexperience, and some positions were underwhelming in terms of available talent going forward.  But at the center position, the man has given the team a Hennessey Venom GT (Okafor), a Land Rover Range Rover (Noel), and a Rolls Royce Phantom (Embiid).  Which one will the team trade in?  Which one will the team drive out of the garage?

It’s that dilemma which may have contributed to the former GM’s demise.  Let’s hope it’s one that Bryan Colangelo gets right.  Offense or Defense, Mr. Colangelo?