NBA Draft: Falling to 3 and 4 May be Good For Philadelphia 76ers

Although they covet the top overall pick in this year’s draft, the Philadelphia 76ers may not have it so bad if they fall to 3 and 4.

Philadelphia 76ers fans want that top overall pick. They want Ben Simmons, or they want Brandon Ingram. There is a division of fans, here. The large majority of fans can agree, however, that getting that pick this season is key to the rebuilding process.

The rebuilding process is one that’s taken on a strange identity. After its curator — Sam Hinkie — stepped down as president and general manager of the team just a few weeks ago, Bryan Colangelo — son of Jerry Colangelo, who was Chairman of Basketball Operations for just a few months with the team — has taken his place. But that doesn’t mean the rebuild is over. No, actually, it just means that Bryan can move forward with the pieces Hinkie has put in place, and possibly add some solid connections around the NBA to his seemingly endless deck of assets.

What some fans seem to ignore, though, is the idea that maybe getting the third and fourth pick in this year’s draft is not only more likely, but perhaps the better option if the goal is to win soon.

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The Sixers have a 25 percent chance at the first overall pick, and nearly a 65 percent chance at getting in the top three. They are guaranteed to have their own pick fall in the top four, and will acquire the Los Angeles Lakers’ pick if it lands outside of the top three.

So, if the Sixers get a pick in the top three, and the Lakers pick ends up being the fourth overall, the Sixers will retain their own pick (top three) and the Lakers pick at four. Other possibilities, such as the Sixers at four and Lakers at five are possible.

Could 3 and 4 be better than 1 and 4?

I know what you’re thinking, why are we talking about the third and fourth pick when there’s a possibility the Sixers could get the top pick and the fourth overall pick? Wouldn’t that be better? I do agree that the first and fourth pick would be outstanding, but I also think it may set the Sixers back a bit.

If they have the first pick, they are almost guaranteed to take Ben Simmons. Simmons is a good player with the highest projected ceiling in this year’s draft, but he just doesn’t fit what the Sixers need to win right now. Simmons coming in — although there is speculation that he could play as a guard — would add more confusion to an already clustered frontcourt that features Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, and soon Dario Saric.

If the Sixers have number one overall, I want them to take Ingram, but I understand (and even expect) them picking Simmons. The pressure of passing up on a player like Simmons is insane. Sure, he has his shooting issues right now, but in a few years he could be one of the best players in the league. You just don’t want to pass a player up with so much potential.

If the Sixers get the third and fourth pick, though, they can get two solid role players that can contribute to the Sixers’ plan to move forward this season. Mix guys like Buddy Hield or Jaylen Brown in with a slew of possible free agents this offseason, and you’ve got a roster that really starts to come together.

Looking at one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat, they paired some solid drafting (beyond the top 5 picks) with good, experienced NBA players to create a roster that was ready to win. They picked up Justise Winslow with the 10th overall pick in the draft, and he has had some truly incredible games and looks to be a solid future role player or star in the NBA. Josh Richardson was taken by the Heat in the second round, and was one of the best second round picks of the draft, and possibly one of the biggest surprises.

The Heat were ahead of where the Sixers are now, but you get the idea. You can find impactful players outside of Ben Simmons, even with this year’s seemingly weak draft class. And drafting away from the top overall pick allows you to pick what you want, not best available.

I’m not opposed to the Sixers getting the second and fourth pick either, but going in hoping for three and four leaves room for a pleasant surprise if the Sixers happen to get two and four. The point is, having the first overall pick almost guarantees that the Sixers will take Simmons, even if he doesn’t fit very well. When they have picks later on, they can vary more with them and draft more for fit, hopefully leading to wins sooner rather than later.

What’s best for the team moving forward?

The front office needs to determine what’s best moving forward. If they plan on moving a lot of the players acquired in the Hinkie era, such as Nerlens and Jah, then bringing in Simmons wouldn’t be such a bad idea. But if they plan on keeping a few of these big men, than maybe Simmons with the Sixers doesn’t make complete sense.

Building a draft strategy is tough, especially this season. The Sixers have been awful for three years, and I would hope that the goal is to start being better. The draft may be the deciding factor in that. A good draft will push them to future success, while a bad one will leave them in the middle 50 percent of the league for years to come.

Building a draft strategy is smart, but hoping for certain picks is arbitrary. The Sixers, although they could possibly work a trade with certain teams for their coveted draft picks if they wanted to, can not decide where they draft. It’s up to the ping pong balls on lottery night.

Once the Sixers have the order determined, they can create a solid draft strategy, and decide whether they should draft for fit or for best available.

Next: 5 Free Agents Colangelo Will Covet

A rare opportunity

The Sixers have a rare opportunity this year. They could possibly have two draft picks in the top 5, something that rarely happens, and hasn’t happened since the Cleveland Cavaliers selected Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson at one and four in 2011.

Wherever the ping pong balls fall, the Sixers have a huge NBA Draft ahead of them. The decisions they make this year may determine whether or not the past few years were a waste of time, or a genius plan.