Wisdom is easy…when you look at Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers draft history.
Hit pieces about the lack of success have been commonplace for the past three years when discussing the efforts of former President and General Manager Sam Hinkie, particularly when discussing his efforts to reinvent and rebuild the Philadelphia 76ers into a premium NBA success. Grading drafted players immediately has never been about the statistics, but about the consensus. Consensus is the number of heads in the room that nod to anything an individual says and does.
When you are an admitted contrarian, any heads nodding along to what you are either saying or doing is avoided at all costs.
So why are so many eager to run at the “foolishness” of Sam Hinkie, if he was so misguided? What’s the point of reanalyzing his draft choices? It’s hard to say, but what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
The problem in judging the draft selections of Sam Hinkie now, AFTER he’s gone, is the infalliable ability to know how everything would turn out to this point in time. In what is likely one of the best articles on the subject, taken from the perspective of “what we knew then” is a piece written by the very well versed Derek Bodner in an article “Sam Hinkie, Talent Evaluator: What We Know, What We Don’t Know, and What That Means”. His article was written before the infamous selection of center Jahlil Okafor with the third overall pick of the 2015 NBA draft, but I’ve no doubt that the same logic can be applied to that selection as well.
Leading up to that NBA draft, the team became aware of a finding of regression in Joel Embiid‘s foot. That regression was not yet fully understood, but it certain came with the doubts of Embiid playing in the 2015-2016 NBA season, or ever for that matter. Knowing that the team had serious matters to resolve with their star center, the team had to face the facts that they would be entering the draft with a potential hole in the roster at center, for as little as another year but potentially for as long as several years. Compounding that was the results of the lottery, giving the Sixers the third draft in the 2015 NBA draft – but a pick behind the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Los Angeles Lakers. Additional complexities arose in the fact that the agent of Kristaps Porzingis did not allow the Sixers any access to one of the top prospects in that draft – perhaps out of spite.
In any case, the team selected the best player available on the board at the time they selected in picking Jahlil Okafor. But what of the outcries that the team should have picked Porzingis on draft night? Well, judging by the reactions of shock jock Stephen A. Smith, and the Knicks fans in attendance, there were no happy faces upon the announcement of his name to the Knicks. Imagine the vitriol and outcry if the Sixers had selected him one position earlier?
The fundamental flaw of the critics rest in the expectation that the climb out of the cellar is a gradual ascent. It’s a theory of success in the win column attracting better talent to the team which translates into more wins in the win column. A spiral up – easy to do.
When you examine a team which uses that format, even when kickstarted by the lottery with a first round pick, you think of two teams – the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Let’s focus on the Wolves first:
The Timberwolves were a one-season tank, which is generally acceptable in the NBA. They had hit in the 2008 NBA draft to the tune of Kevin Love – or actually hit on a blockbuster trade with the Memphis Grizzlies for the rights to Love – a player selected by the Grizzlies at five in the 2008 NBA draft. But in the 2009-2010 season, the Timberwolves were back near the bottom of the NBA with just 15 wins from a previous years total of 24 wins. The following year of 2010-2011, the Timberwolves flopped to the league low of 17 wins. Finally, in the 2011-2012 season, the team rose to 26 wins and looked to be on the upswing. Wins of 31 and 40 in the next two years seemed to confirm that this team was finally about to break into the post season.
And then? The team fell to the worst in the league and was picking first in the NBA draft once more. But it was the second “tank” that gave the team incentive to refocus the roster on a younger lineup – incentive enough to part ways with the likes of Kevin Loves for the rights to recent first round draft selection Andrew Wiggins, a player who had been selected by another team with struggles to win games recently – the Cleveland Cavaliers.
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The team that rebuild the “right way”, now entering their tenth season and no closer to even playoff appearances. So much for that example.
Let’s go the other route. We KNOW the Cleveland Cavaliers are now the powerhouse team of the NBA eastern conference. In fact the past two seasons have been wins of 53 and 57 respectively. But who is kidding who? In both the 2009-2009 and 2009-2010 season, the Cleveland Cavaliers were the EPITOME of power in the NBA, but it was on the back of one man – LeBron James. When he decided to sign with his friends to join the Miami Heat, the NBA power fell like a rock to the basement of the NBA – ending with 19 wins in that 2010-2011 season. In their next season, the team had won just 21 games. At the end of the 2012-2013 season, the team continued to struggle with just 24 wins. Finally, after the 2013-2014 season, the team had climbed to 33 wins.
But during that four season period, they Cavaliers had defied virtually all mathematical probabilities by winning the top NBA draft pick three of the four seasons without LeBron James. Three of four, when the best odds any team can have is capped at 25%? Yes… just a random event. Eventually, LeBron James would elect to return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who then used one of their top draft picks in Andrew Wiggins to pry the veteran Kevin Love away from the Timberwolves.
So the “right way” for the Cleveland Cavaliers depended on 75% of the top NBA draft picks AND the change of heart of one of the elite basketball players of the NBA.
Next: Philadelphia 76ers Should Not Discount Their Triad At Center
So when I read the vile and unholy acts committed by the Philadelphia 76ers, and Sam Hinkie in particular, to the honor of the NBA, I see no shining examples of anyone towing the line, following the prescribed path, getting anywhere without a great deal of “unconventional luck” to even approach the NBA playoffs. Much like society at large, the wealth of the NBA favors the rich. Sure, you can go back and lock at any NBA draft and select a player still on the board who may have made a more significant contribution the the Sixers than the player selected. But you can do that in any sport, in any year, with any draft. Since the Philadelphia 76ers have YET to use the first pick of the NBA draft in this millenium, that means other teams have selected prior to the Sixers selections.
And in any scenario exercise, when you rearrange history, you automatically cause a change of the outcomes. When I read articles and watch videos that claim in a straight face that “Many of Sam Hinkie’s Picks Have Not Panned Out”, I am at a loss for words. When the team drafts players who are known to be arriving to the NBA in one, two, or three seasons down the road, I don’t know that I agree with “have not panned out”. When I find “drafted players haven’t contributed”, I have to go back to see where Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor are two very young and highly rated prospects in the NBA.
We like simplicity in our lives. We want simple ideas. We want to cheer a good guy, and boo a bad guy. And for whatever reason, Sam Hinkie has fallen off to the side of “NBA bad guy”. But bring something a little stronger than these weaksauce arguments about his drafting folks. Come back in another three years, when many of these young men will be coming into their own. Return when the 20-23 year old players currently on the roster are in the 24-27 age range, and are beginning to dominate the NBA.
Until then, stop sounding like whiney kids on a long car trip with constant chants of “did you win anything yet?” The only response for your logic is one my father used to give me. “Shut up back there or you can get off this ride and hoof it the rest of the way.”