Much Like The Guy Before Him, Bryan Colangelo Hitches Off-Season Strategy To NBA Lottery
The bouncing of balls. But in this off-season, there are more balls than ever which could seal the fate and the off-season strategy of Philadelphia 76ers President Bryan Colangelo. You see, it’s not just the outcome of where the 76ers will be drafting which affects our team this year, but rather where we pick, where the Los Angeles Lakers pick, and where the Sacramento Kings pick.
We already know that the Philadelphia 76ers will be selecting at 24, thanks to the first round pick of the Miami Heat, and at 26, thanks to the first round pick of the Oklahoma City Thunder. But the NBA has added the drama of the NBA Lottery to the top picks – and the worst teams- in the NBA draft. We covered the lottery aspect of the NBA draft earlier in the year. But as a recap:
The Philadelphia 76ers had the worst record in the NBA in the 2015-2016 season. They therefore will have a draft pick somewhere between one and four. The odds of each pick are as follows:
The First pick: 25%
The Second pick: 21.5%
The Third pick: 17.8%
The Fourth pick: 35.7%
But in addition, the team has the rights to swap picks with that of the Sacramento Kings if the Kings draft spot is more favorable. The Kings ended up in a tie with the Denver Nuggets and the Milwaukee Bucks, so their draft odds are “blended”. But the way the NBA Lottery works is that the top three picks are subject to the NBA lottery. After that, the teams “natural order” kicks into place. For our purposes, the only lottery outcomes to matter to the fans of the Philadelphia 76ers would be the odds of the Sacramento Kings ending up in one of the top three draft spots.
Due to the blending, the Sacramento Kings have a 1.9% chance at the first overall pick – which automatically conveys to the Sixers as it would be a better draft position. The Kings also boast a 2.2% chance of ending up at the second pick, and finally have a 2.7% chance of hitting the third pick for a total of 6.8% chance of ending up in the top three. Since the Sixers have the option to swap, those odds are added to the Sixers odds, essentially giving the team a 71.1% chance of selecting in the top three, 50.6% chance of selecting in the top two, and a 26.9% of selecting first overall.
But the fun does NOT stop there. With the Los Angeles Lakers top-three protected pick, the Philadelphia 76ers also have the added bonus of a 31.9% chance of inheriting the Lakers pick at Four, or a 12.3% chance of obtaining the pick at Five.
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So the team has better than even money to get into the all important top two picks in this draft – where Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram reside, and nearly even odds of getting a second top five pick. Quite a lot riding on lady luck, the same lady who scorned Sam Hinkie time and time again, but who was particularly kind in awarding the post-Lebron James three of four top NBA draft choices. Perhaps NBA’s Lady Luck will smile on the Sam-less Sixers this year.
It’s this potential which has the front office so eager to learn where the team stands on draft night, an eagerness captured by Tom Moore, Sixers sports writer and analyst of the Bucks County Courier:
"“I’m anxious to get to the 17th of May to determine what we have,” Colangelo said in an interview Tom Moore of the Bucks County Courier Times. “It’s more of a defining moment and helps to set the stage for the draft and free agency. It’s a little less concrete before that date. The fans deserve to see a winning team. It’s not a race to the middle. We want to build something that will get to the end line and ultimately contend for a championship.”"
To build a winner, you start by taking inventory of what you have and what you are willing to give up. And to take inventory, you need to know what you truly have. Following the NBA lottery on May 17, the Philadelphia 76ers will not what they have, and what they do not have. Unfortunately, much like his predecessor, Bryan Colangelo’s first NBA draft is hitched to the favor of Lady Luck. Perhaps now that the team is run by a true “basketball mind” who has replaced the former president, the unquestioned objective randomness of the NBA lottery will be more favorable to the Sixers.
Next: Bryan Colangelo Needs Roster Balance
If not, the fates may end up being the same. It is, after all, all about winning regular season games after all. Unless the fortunes of the Sixers change, the Sixers could end up with a minimal three pick draft. That could put the front office into a tough spot moving forward.