The Sixer Sense
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NBA Draft Lottery: Philadelphia 76ers Odds

By Josh Wilson

Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the full first round draft board at the conclusion of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the full first round draft board at the conclusion of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 9, 2014; Lithonia, GA, USA; The NBA logo is shown with basketballs as the Atlanta Hawks conduct an open practice at Miller Grove High School. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 9, 2014; Lithonia, GA, USA; The NBA logo is shown with basketballs as the Atlanta Hawks conduct an open practice at Miller Grove High School. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /

The NBA Draft Lottery was first held in 1985. After an awful way of determining the draft order with coin flips, the NBA decided it was time for a change. The new lottery system has also been criticized, but it’s definitely better than what existed prior to 1985.

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After some trial and error, the lottery system we know today was introduced. The weighted lottery system is done with a regulation lottery machine and 14 numbered table tennis balls. Before the draft, the league gives each lottery team a certain number of four-number combinations (out of 1,001 possible).

Since there are actually a total of 1,001 four-number combinations (statistically this is calculated by a mathematic combination formula, 14 C 4, in an nCr format), an odd number, the combination of 11-12-13-14 is omitted and if it is drawn (this has not occurred since this format has been adopted) it is discarded, since no team ever owns that combination.

The league, in a private area with team representatives present, draws four ping-pong balls, and the team that owns that combination of balls gets the top pick. They do that for two more times — given that no repeat combinations occur — and fill out picks two and three. The remaining 12 lottery picks are filled out by record, which is why the team with the worst overall record can not get a pick any worse than four, and the second worst overall record can get any worse than 5, and so on.

The Sixers own 250 of their own four-number combinations, and the Kings (who they can swap with, if they get a pick better than the Sixers) have 28 combinations.

The Sixers odds are pretty good, given that they own the most combinations, but just how good are they?

If you’re looking for a fun (or possibly depressing) lottery simulator, Tankathon’s version is fun.

Next: The bad scenarios