Despite reassurances that “alls well” with the NBA Draft Lottery, the stated odds simply do not match the reality
The Cleveland Cavaliers have used up their goodwill karma fate and luck already. In four years, the Cleveland Cavaliers defied odds of 19.9%, 15.6%, AND 1.7% to achieve, or be gifted, with the first pick of the NBA draft. The deepest cut was the 1.7% chance in 2014, a chance which landed higher than the Philadelphia 76ers hopes at 19.9% for the second worse finish in the NBA.
Odds of Cavs getting #1 pick in 2011, 2013 & 2014? 1 in 13,467! (H/T @micahmeyer)
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) May 21, 2014
But that’s why it’s a lottery, right? The NBA draft lottery system is designed to prevent NBA teams from blatantly fielding a non competitive team in the hopes of landing a game changing young man. The NBA designed the lottery system to do what it does, reduce the chances of the worst teams of the NBA to increase the odds of each non-playoff team of picking number one in the upcoming NBA Draft.
But three in four times crossed the line. The Cavaliers lost LeBron James, were kept on life support by the NBA Draft for three of the next four years, and then welcomed LeBron James back home again. No harm, no foul, right?
Well that’s the system that stands behind the authenticity of the NBA draft of 2016. While the Cavaliers ended up in the spotlight, the Philadelphia 76ers were not so, um… er…. lucky?
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The Sixers had a 19.9% chance of the first pick in 2014, and 38.7% chance of the top two picks that year. The following year the Sixers had a 15.6% chance of the first pick and a 31.3% chance of a top two pick. This year the Sixers have a 26.9% chance at the top pick and nearly a 50% chance of a top two pick. So far, the Sixers have landed third.
But it was not simply their own picks that hurt, but they had a chance at the Los Angeles Lakers pick and the Miami Heat pick in that first round of 2015. Neither conveyed.
This year, the former general manager Sam Hinkie has done all that he could to work the odds. The Sixers have the Miami Heat pick at 24 and the Oklahoma City Thunder pick at 26 as certainties.
The Sixers have a chance, nearly a 50/50 shot, of landing the Los Angeles Lakers pick at either four or five. That could net a solid starter, an impact player, heading into the 2016-2017 season. That would be a huge plus.
But the true magic happens with their own pick, and that of the Sacramento Kings. The Kings have a 1.9% chance of scoring with the top overall draft pick. While those odds are better than the 2014 Cleveland Cavaliers, if the Kings land the top pick in this NBA draft Philadelphia 76ers fans will rejoice.
You see, we have the right to swap picks with them.
And so, the Philadelphia 76ers are hoping for a top two pick result for either the Philadelphia 76ers or the Sacramento Kings. From there, the consensus is that either forward Ben Simmons or guard Brandon Ingram will come to Philadelphia, and either player brings a lot of optimism and potential. It happens tonight. It is an historic moment. Now that Sam Hinkie has left the building, it wouldn’t hurt to see some of the NBA love shown to the Cleveland Cavaliers shine on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
Next: NBA Draft Lottery 2016 Every Team's Odds of Winning
We are no longer pushing draft picks to the future. The future is now. The NBA draft lottery tells how much closer we have drawn.