The Philadelphia 76ers will trade a big man at some point, but the NBA Draft is not the time.
The NBA Draft is a time where plenty of college kids’ dreams come true. That’s great and all, but the NBA doesn’t stop being a business on draft night just to appreciate dreams . While the players are getting picked one by one, teams are often calling other teams to trade around and position themselves best for the upcoming season.
The Philadelphia 76ers have already let the league know that they are open for business. With three first round draft picks in their possession during the first round of this year’s draft, that’s not a surprise. What also wouldn’t be a surprise is if they are shopping around either Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor.
With Joel Embiid likely making his debut next season, and Dario Saric also becoming an option to use in the power forward spot, it’s becoming increasingly clear to the public as well as the front office that there is going to be a power trip in the frontcourt. All three of the big men — Embiid, Noel, and Okafor — will eventually deserve starter caliber minutes.
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Now, you could divvy up the minutes between the three and still offer each about 28-30 minutes per game, but that’s without making room for players like Saric as well. It’s tricky, but it is doable.
That’s just the numbers, though. We have to take into account that constantly rotating the three between the two frontcourt positions can cause momentum issues — and basketball is a game of momentum, after all — and these three are not the best power forwards out there. They all could probably get by as power forwards for a few minutes per game, but it’s certainly not ideal.
So, it’s obvious, one of these players has to go, and recent quotes from veteran reporters are making fans believe that even more. It likely won’t be Embiid. Embiid has not proven that he can stay healthy, and has not played in the NBA at all yet. Because of that, his trade value is very low to other teams around the league. So it’s going to be Noel or Okafor that gets moved.
Many think that this trade should happen during the draft, in order to help the Sixers either move up to get another lottery pick, or to gain a solid established NBA player. I’m all for both of those outcomes, but I truly don’t think the draft is the best time to trade one of these players.
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For one, the Sixers are not going to get much in return during the draft. Yes, there is a scramble to get deals done, but even Jahlil Okafor couldn’t get them another top three pick in the draft, unless the Boston Celtics are very interested in him still. Nerlens Noel’s value is even less than that.
Secondly, there is absolutely no guarantee on Embiid’s health. Many are optimistic about his return and recovery this time around, but we don’t have solid evidence that he’s going to play even next season. Yes, it’s likely, but is it a sure thing? By no means.
On top of that, the likelihood that Embiid will be able to play a full 30 minutes or so a game is near zero. Think about it — a player coming off of two straight seasons with an injury playing full minutes right out of the gate? Embiid will be on a minutes restriction to start the season, and possibly for the whole year as he transitions from workouts to real game situations.
Because of this, there is a need for having both Noel and Okafor next season. Do they coexist well together? Not really. But they can play them both in opposite lineups as Embiid works back to full health. Once Embiid is at full health, the Sixers can facilitate a trade for one of the two.
Waiting gives the Sixers a huge advantage with trades. It will let teams around the league see Embiid play, and also give them a larger sample size of Okafor and Noel. After Okafor’s huge rookie season, his value could go up even more next year, allowing for higher return in the future.
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Trading during the draft is a premature, “fix now” move that will not pay off in the long run. The Sixers need to keep all of their big men, for now.