The Unknown Versus The Known
There is wisdom in acknowledging failure, and limits of knowledge. One or two years of NBA history are not a projection of where a player will end up in his NBA career. It’s an indication, it certainly defines the strengths and weaknesses of a player. But the player’s ultimate perfomance is a compilation of his own talents, his work ethic, his attitude, the talents of his teammates, and his scheme.
Nothing less than that is accurate.
In the 2015-2016 season, the Philadelphia 76ers were a very bad, young, poorly constructed, undermanned and often injured team. They won a mere ten games.
But there are far too many launching Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor from the misconception that their NBA careers are busts. Let’s see what we can do about tapping the brakes on that concept.
While the initial experience of Noel and Okafor was not stellar, there are valid reasons why optimism for the pair can coexist, and even flourish, with the addition of Joel Embiid.
Hoops Habit
Point I – Stabilize the point guard position. It starts with the field general – whether that is the true point guard or the introduction of point forward Ben Simmons this season, the team will have a better handle at ball distribution this season. With better distribution and decision making up front, the team will be able to settle into their roles more easily going forward. Last season, the team did not truly settle the point guard position until after Christmas, when Ish Smith arrived and T. J. McConnell began to excel in a backup role. That initial confusion at the point guard position percolated the poor decisions of Jahlil Okafor off court, and set the roster of very young players into a season opening tail spin.
Point II – End the experimentation. With a roster that was crippled to open and end the season, many players were drafted to roles on the floor which they held no previous experience. There was also the prolonged and painful attempts by the Philadelphia 76ers trying to find a way to get both Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor on the basketball court at the same time. Initially Okafor played the five and Noel played four, but after the February 2nd interview of Jerry Colangelo where the elder Colangelo named Noel a “rim protector”, the team mysteriously did an about face and move Okafor to the four – a position he had never played before – and returned Noel to the five.
Point III – Play 15 healthy players. Few discuss the Philadelphia 76ers undermanned roster in the past two seasons of carrying a rehabilitating Joel Embiid on their payroll, but the net effect was the team only began with 14 players. Through the course of the year, injuries occur with bruises, pulls, strains, sprains, and yes, sometimes concussions, which require next man up management of the lineup. At the beginning and the end of the season, the Philadelphia 76ers struggled to have ten or more players suited and ready to play. Compounding this matter was the additional challenge of players who started or played key roles for the team who were given minutes restrictions. I’m in favor of managing players health in that style of aggressive oversight, but it has a tremendously adverse effect on the team, who must now manage game minutes with fewer bodies to share the burden.
Point IV – We do not fully know what we have at center. We may be sitting on three NBA All-Stars in three years. 22 year old Nerlens Noel is the “veteran” of the group, now entering his third season of NBA play. He has been lauded for his defensive prowess in his first two years of the NBA, but his scoring has improved from 9.9 to 11.1 points per game, and trending toward 15-18 PPG in two years.
From the opposite direction, we have the skill set of 20 year old first year center Jahlil Okafor, who had everyone sitting up and taking notice of his incredible ability to score near the basket. At 17.5 points per game and shooting at a clip better than 50% from the floor, his first year was impressive enough to compete with statistics of NBA veterans of many years, and he’s just getting started. Top scoring center DeMarcus Cousins, who averaged 26.9 points per game, only mustered 14.1 PPG in his rookie season. While much is made of Okafor’s rebounding at 7.0 rebounds per game, Cousins only pulled down 8.6 in his rookie year. But in his career, he continued to improve in both areas, and there is not logical reason to believe Jahlil Okafor will do otherwise in his career.
Finally, we have the mysterious potential of 22 year old rookie center Joel Embiid, who has yet to step onto a basketball court, but who impresses everyone so much that even NBA seasoned executives walk away believing that the young man can truly be somebody special. And in a field of these three, to be singled out as “somebody special” is truly a compliment.
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