Breaking Down The Nerlens Noel-Jeff Teague Trade Rumor

Trading Nerlens Noel for Jeff Teague could be a very shortsighted decision by Bryan Colangelo and the Sixers.

Philadelphia 76ers twitter erupted into a frenzy of outrage and called for Bryan Colangelo’s head when Shams Charania of the Vertical dropped his very own Woj bomb on Thursday night.

Atlanta and Philadelphia are discussing a deal centered on a Jeff Teague and Nerlens Noel package, league sources tell The Vertical.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 2, 2016

Now, before getting into possible ramifications if the rumor is true, there are a few important things to point out first. Charania stated in his accompanying article that no deal is imminent. Everyone, for now, needs to take a deep breath.

Secondly, it’s very doubtful this is a straight swap given Jeff Teague is an unrestricted free agent in 2017 and Nerlens Noel is a restricted free agent that year. If Teague can walk a year from now, Philly will require something else.

Aside from when these two players enter free agency and the fact that this tweet was not stating this trade was a done deal, there is one other important thing to consider. Sure, new general manager Bryan Colangelo has been very public about not shooting for mediocrity, taking his time, and building off of what Sam Hinkie built. However, winning has been the number one buzzword for him since his hiring, so it shouldn’t be so surprising that he’s looking to immediately add veterans.

At the same time though, as we break down the potential trickle-down effect, should this trade happen, this trade frankly does not make a lot of sense from the Sixers side of things.

Contractually this would be a terrible deal for the Sixers straight up. As mentioned above, Noel and Teague will both be free agents in 2017, but while Noel is restricted and retainable, Teague is unrestricted and could leave for free.

Even if say Atlanta was to throw in the 21st overall pick in this year’s draft and a future pick, like the 2018 Minnesota Timberwolves pick, are those two picks worth trading Noel for? Is Noel’s potential to grow into a starting caliber center less valuable than the 21st pick in the portion of a draft that is very deep and a pick two years from now?

You have to ask yourself that question since there is risk in losing Teague. It makes sense for Atlanta to cash in on him because of this and to acquire Noel with Al Horford potentially leaving in free agency. Nothing is stopping Teague from leaving Philadelphia next summer even if the Sixers made a miraculous run to make the playoffs. So, given that he could leave for free you have weigh the other parts of the deal.

Don’t get it twisted, Teague is a lovely two-way point guard, who could really help the Sixers next year and for at least two to three more seasons if they brought him back. Last season he averaged 15.7 points, 5.9 assists and shot 40 percent from beyond the 3-point line. However, he will get overpaid with the upcoming booming salary cap. Teague plays the deepest position in the league and the Sixers have the potential to get two lottery picks next year in a draft that has at least four stud point guards.

Not to mention, even if he played well on his new contract, you’re likely paying him somewhere in the $25 million range on the backend when everyone has money and when cap space is precious. You cannot throw money like that at an above average player when players like Joel Embiid or Ben Simmons, and frankly any young players on the roster, will need bigger contracts.

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Aside from Teague, it’s understandable to want to part from Nerlens Noel. He regressed this past season, has trouble doing almost anything offensively and is going to be very expensive when the Sixers have a ton of bigs.

Joel Embiid is a far better prospect at center. Trading Noel and keeping their frontcourt full of players on rookie contracts leaves more cap flexibility. However, Noel is the best insurance policy for Embiid and if he never plays, that’s an awful lot of pressure on Jahlil Okafor‘s defense.

Nerlens Noel is a fabulous asset, but sacrificing him for unknown future picks (being generous on a hypothetical offer) and a point guard who would either leave in a year or digress when the team hits its stride is a waste of Noel’s value. It would resemble the most rushed move the team could come up with. This team likely would miss the playoffs even with Teague. This is less about keeping Nerlens Noel and more about making sure if you’re going to give up a great asset, and one of your best at that, that you truly find a good coup that will benefit the team beyond just a one year rental. Here are some other options for a Noel trade that our own Josh Wilson wrote about in a recent article.

Watching the Western Conference finals should have made it abundantly clear to Bryan Colangelo how scary a proposition it is when you develop a large, deep and young core. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Festus Ezeli, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, and Serge Ibaka were all drafted by their current teams. It’s perfectly fine for Colangelo to cash in on his abundance on young, talented big men, but not when there are so many red flags as to whether it would benefit the team beyond the short term. Long term is the long game here in order to win a championship.

He would be better off exploring the market thoroughly and finding someone on a better timetable and contract than Jeff Teague if he is going to depart with Noel. Also, if Ben Simmons is your guy, you can be more patient on bringing in a better point guard.

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This is the kind of move that stopped the Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors from being title contenders. We’ll have to wait and see if Colangelo has truly learned from his past. There is surely pressure to get better, and sooner rather than later, but this is not the way.