Why the Philadelphia 76ers Shouldn’t Draft Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray’s impressive stats and play on offense doesn’t outweigh his poor athleticism and bad defense.

There are many reasons to like Jamal Murray and believe he has the potential to become a great player in the NBA. Coming from the NBA’s one year internship for high school basketball players hoping to improve their position in the upcoming NBA draft known as the University of Kentucky, Murray is likely to join the ranks of John Wall, DeMarcus Cousin, Anthony Davis, and Karl-Anthony Towns as one-and-done players from Kentucky that turned into great NBA players that were drafted early in the first round.

As someone that mostly watches NCAA basketball ball to see future NBA players, Kentucky tends to be my favorite team to watch most seasons and Murray made a great first impression on me. I knew Ben Simmons was the top player to watch and heard of Brandon Ingram quickly moving up draft boards, but Murray made me believe the Sixers might not be completely screwed if they ended up picking third after the lottery. Watching Murray make jump shot after jump shot, he looked like the perfect scorer to complement Jahlil Okafor or Joel Embiid’s post scoring. Scoring 20.0 points, grabbing 5.2 rebounds, and creating 2.2 assists per game, it’s not surprising the 19 year old Murray made me believe he could be in competition for the third best player in the 2016 NBA Draft. Murray’s 20 points per game is higher than Simmons’ 19.2 and Ingram’s 17.3, and 51 percent of all of Murray’s shots came from behind the three point line where he made 41 percent of them. So why shouldn’t the Sixers draft Murray?

While Murray’s height of 6’5″ and weight of 207 pounds is acceptable for a shooting guard, his lack of athleticism could keep him from playing starter’s minutes and could make him a complete bust in the NBA. Murray is basically the reverse Jaylen Brown. Brown is a great athlete that has below average basketball skills and Murray is a bad athlete that has great basketball skills. Both Brown and Murray have an equal or greater chance of being a bust than a star, and this is the main reason I want the Sixers to avoid drafting either player.

What made me go from loving Murray to not wanting the Sixers to even consider drafting him, is a combination of articles like this from Kevin O’Conner that shows all of strengths I previously mentioned while concluding he is likely to be a good player coming off the bench and recently deciding to watch Kentucky games I had saved on my DVR after rumors of the Sixers trading for another lottery pick.

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Hearing several draft analysts say his lack of athleticism could make it impossible for him to be come an average defensive player in the NBA, I wanted to see if the stories were true or an overblown talking point. After watching more games focusing on how Murray played on both ends of the court, to say Murray will be a bad defender is an extreme understatement.

Murray could be covering anyone from a legitimate NBA prospect to a player that will never play in a serious basketball game again after college and would consistently struggle to stay in front of his man. Murray is a player that seems to give 100 percent effort on defense and he might be able to somewhat challenge the ball handler with years of practice, but if the opposing team sets even one screen, Murray will be taken out of the play completely.

Murray’s off-the-ball defense is especially horrible. There were numerous occasions in every game I watched where Murray was sprinting to catch-up with the player he was defending after the slightest interference of one of that player’s teammates or that player simply being too fast for Murray. Sometimes watching Murray play defense is like having a race between two people with equal speed and giving one of them a minute head start. No matter how hard the runner with the late start tries to catch-up with the runner with the early start, it’s just not going to happen.

Murray’s lack of athleticism also limits him on offense. Murray is a decent rebounder for his position and has good ball handling, but I’m unsure if he would be good at leading a fast break. While he’s capable of making a good pass from one end of the court to the other, I expect most NBA point guards, shooting guards, and some small forwards would have no problem stopping a fast break lead by the slow moving Murray.

Murray didn’t beat most players in a race to one end of the court to the other in college, so why should anyone expect him to do it in the NBA? Murray’s lack of speed and quickness made it very difficult for get past his defender to score easy layups or draw a fouls. When Murray takes several difficult or contested jump shots, it’s not because he needs to improve his decision making or enjoys displaying his ability to make tough shots, but his inability to get past his defender.

Murray’s free throw attempt rate, which is how often he draws a foul every time he attempts a shot, is 27 percent. To understand how bad that is, Sixers’ point guard T.J. McConnell whose inability to draw fouls became a running joke last season had a free throw attempt rate of 22 percent during his final season at the University of Arizona. Fellow NBA 2016 draft prospects Buddy Hield and Kris Dunn had free throw attempt rates of 33 and 46 percent last season, so it’s not unfair to say Murray will rarely get to the free throw line in the NBA.

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J.Z. Mazlish wrote this detailed article showing how Murray’s lack of athleticism could outweigh his great shooting and I now feel comfortable saying that the Sixers should take Dunn over Murray, and that wasn’t a difficult decision.