When assessing the impact of a lineup of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, the heights of these two players are not the only attribute towering over the remainder of the NBA.
If you can predict it, you can measure it. If you can measure it, you can improve it. If you can improve it, you can change the trajectory. If you can change the trajectory, you cannot predict it.
Such is the paradox of today’s NBA. We engage analytics to assess and improve historical trends and use those measurements to flip to projection, but in doing so, have we deviated from the measure?
Some measures attempt to compensate for that by using a more “holistic” approach to quantify the impact of a player. One such measure is box plus minus index developed by Daniel Meyers at basketball-reference.com.
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We discussed this measure in an article, and cited how the index rates the potential of both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as two of the highest to be scored in that way in NBA History.
But there are other measures in this NBA, some have not begun to track the quality of the Philadelphia 76ers two rookies. One is player efficiency rating developed by ESPN.com sports columnist John Hollinger, which
"“sums up all a player’s positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player’s performance.”"
This measure is tracked in an NBA game environment. That will come later.
For now, there is more to the player than the scoring, the physicality, the mechanics. There is the mental aspect, the tactician on the basketball court. there is a need to have a strong basketball IQ to be able to process instantly the flooding changes of a play as it unfolds on the floor.
Ben Simmons says basketball IQ gained in Australia is something you need to have. Excited Sixers have players w/ diverse backgrounds.
— brianseltzer (@brianseltzer) June 24, 2016
Similarly, this was the selling point of young Joel Embiid, whose lack of basketball experience never translated into lack of understanding of the game:
"“When an executive starts talking about things they like about Embiid, they can go on forever. They drool over his graceful movements, soft touch, exceptional footwork, incredible instincts, high basketball IQ, 7’5 wingspan, extraordinary athleticism and, of course, limitless potential. He’s drawn comparisons to Hall of Fame center Hakeem Olajuwon, which may seem crazy, but you can’t help but notice a lot of The Dream’s traits in Embiid when watching him play.” – Alex Kennedy 29 January 2014 article for Basketball Insiders"
So we have two young men who will tower over the average NBA player at their respective positions – 6-foot-10 236 pound Ben Simmons at point forward running the show like a point guard, and 7-foot-2 and 275 pound Joel Embiid at center. Both have grown physically, both have grown in reputation, and both have grown from one year in NCAA basketball to the expectation that the NBA game will come easy to each of them.
It won’t. In fact, the very existence of such lofty expectations will prove to be one more hurdle for each player to overcome. Success will be glossed over, and each learning moment of failure will be splashed on the headlines of ESPN as a taunt of the foolishness of believing the player to be anything more than a young man trying to learn the game of basketball at the professional level.
But if they work harder, endure longer, think more clearly, then their peers, they will ascend to a point few ever have in this game before.
Next: Which player has a bigger year: Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram?
The only question remaining if that happens? Which player will be the face of this franchise? We’ll have plenty of time to debate that question.