As the fans of the Philadelphia 76ers weigh the virtue of improving the team this year over the impact on the 2017 NBA Draft: keep in mind the 2017 draft hinges on the performance of the Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles Lakers
It’s been a rough ride as a fan of the Philadelphia 76ers these past three years. The Philadelphia 76ers have won 19, 18, and 10 games respectively over that period, and as a result have earned the third pick of the NBA draft twice (Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor) and the first pick once (Ben Simmons).
After a long drought, or decision to follow the path of austerity, the Philadelphia 76ers have the team of Sam Hinkie’s blueprint: center Joel Embiid is returning to health after two years of rehabilitation, Dario Saric is coming to the NBA after two years of European basketball, and Ben Simmons was selected by the first draft pick of the NBA Draft by the 76ers since the team’s 1996 selection of Allen Iverson – some 20 years ago.
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And so, we stand facing the 2016-2017 with a new roster, and new hope. But some habits are tough to break. Some see the potential of the Philadelphia 76ers and want to slow down on the progress. The Philadelphia 76ers have certainly been judicious so far in free agency, after three days of open negotiations, the team has lost point guard Ish Smith, has made no effort to retain either power forward Elton Brand nor hybrid guard Isaiah Canaan, and finally did sign point guard Jerryd Bayless, an eight year NBA veteran who can play either point or off – ball guard.
And then the team rested.
Fans reactions have been mixed. Some are content with a team showing fiscal discipline while others want the team to show more than one free agent. But there is the undertone of concern that if the team does too well this season, the oasis of the 2017 NBA draft will dry up as we approach, a mirage that will vanish as a result of our success.
It won’t. Sam Hinkie thought of everything. The 2017 NBA Draft outcome of the Philadelphia 76ers depends on two teams: the Los Angeles Lakers and the Sacramento Kings.
Next: Sam's Insurance Policy
Sam’s Insurance Policy
It doesn’t matter who is running the team now. Whether the team was still in the hands of former President Sam Hinkie or the current President Bryan Colangelo, the process we abided by was never about losing indefinitely. It was about maximizing draft picks, draft picks which are now in place for the foreseeable future.
Because the NBA lottery has built in governors, limits to the chances of any one team to land the top draft pick, Hinkie simply garnered the rights of other team’s picks to improve the chances of his own team.
A Royal Pain
In the 2017 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers had traded the second round pick to the New Orleans Pelicans for the half season rental of point guard Ish Smith, the player we made no offer to and allowed him to be signed away to the Detroit Pistons.
But we have picks in the first round. The Philadelphia 76ers have their own natural pick in round one. The team also has the rights to the first round pick of the Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (top three protected). Finally, and possibly the more important asset of all, the Philadelphia 76ers have the right to swap first round picks with that of the Sacramento Kings if the Kings land a better pick than that of the 76ers.
And so, it’s the pick of the Los Angeles Lakers, and the pick of the Sacramento Kings, which will drive our 2017 NBA Draft booty.
So how have those teams done this off season?
Next: Lakeside
Lakeside Draft
The Los Angeles Lakers are in as much of a rebuild mode as the Philadelphia 76ers, but they are much more aggressive on short cutting via free agency. They also landed the second pick in the 2016 NBA draft, which they used to select small forward Brandon Ingram. Since the 76ers selected first, it was their choice as to which player would better fit the 76ers, a choice they felt was Ben Simmons.
Brandon Ingram is a potential star in the NBA, a player with a solid arsenal of shots and an ability to make his own moves to the basket. But he will be a rookie this year, and with the Los Angeles Lakers reassembling a roster on the fly will have better years ahead of him.
The second player selected is 7-foot-1 240 pound center Ivica Zubac, a player who rose in the ranking despite playing all of 104 minutes of organized basketball. He was a teammate of 76ers Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, and his offense was basically within five feet of the basket. Defensively, he has the right size and shape to defend the basket as a rim protecting center, but he has yet to develop that part of his game. While Zubac will likely make the roster of the team in need of center help, he will begin the season on the bench and will be gradually increased in minutes as he becomes more NBA ready.
With the retirement of Kobe Bryant, the addition of Ingram and Zubac barely rounds the edge of Bryant’s absence. If the team hopes to improve on its 17-65 record, it will need to do so in Free Agency
Next: Lakeside Free Agency
Lakeside Free Agency
The Los Angeles Lakers made moves to retain some of their players with expiring contracts: offered a new contract to guard Jordan Clarkson, qualifying offer to center/forward Tarik Black, and a qualifying offer to guard Marcelo Huertas. That places forward Brandon Bass, center Roy Hibbert, foward Ryan Kelly, forward Robert Sacre, and forward Metta World Peace as free agents.
At the opening bell, the Los Angeles Lakers committed to center Timofey Mozgov, and was followed up with a forward Luol Deng. They also circled back and committed to one of their own, Jordan Clarkson.
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Mozgov played with a nagging knee injury in the 2015-2016 season, and the Lakers have gambled that everything has healed. Mozgov will help the Lakers post defense, but he doesn’t bring much to the team in terms of offense. From the team where he started 46 games, he’ll likely be called upon to start 82 games for the Lakers, at a load of double the average of 17.4 minutes played in the 2015-2016 season. Will his 30 year old body withstand the constant pounding of his physical style game? The Lakers believe it will.
Small forward Luol Deng comes to the Lakers from the Miami Heat, and he is as close to a placeholder at small forward for Kobe Bryant as the team could sign. He is a solid 12 year NBA veteran who can contribute both offensively and defensively for the team. The biggest concern with Deng is that his average scoring of the past three years have fallen below his average and have been in decline, the most recent being 12.3 points per game. With the team losing Kobe Bryant’s 17.6 points per game, the team will need to make up the difference elsewhere.
The Lakers finished the 2015-2016 NBA season with the worst scoring offense in the NBA, and with the exception of Ingram, have done little to address that. Defensively, I think Mozgov could help the team, but the Lakers sat at 27th in a 30 team league defensively.
You’ll see some claims that the Lakers hope to build a playoff team this year. Don’t believe it. They will finish near the bottom of the NBA once more.
Next: Kingside Draft
Kingside Draft
The Sacramento Kings had no problems scoring, and by all rights had a very good starting five lineup. But that same offensive lineup was the worst in the NBA at defense.
And so, the Sacramento Kings entered the 2016 NBA realizing they would need defensive help, and that they would not be re-signing point guard Rajon Rondo,
They approached the draft willing to deal, and deal they did. The Kings selected power forward Marquisse Chriss with the eighth pick of the 2016 NBA draft, and immediately traded the pick to the Phoenix Suns for forward/guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (not to be confused with Brooklyn Nets Bojan Bogdanovic), center Georgios Papagiannis (selected 13th) ,power forward/center Skal Labissiere, and a future 2nd round pick.
The Kings also traded for shooting guard Malachi Richards (selected 22nd) by shipping Marco Bellinelli to the Charlotte Hornets.
The Kings have begun to build the team around center DeMarcus Cousins, and the draft has given them pieces to do so.
The team played small, leaving Cousins in the post to bang bodies and score points. With the team adding Papagiannis and Labissiere, they are committing to giving Cousins some help at the rim.
While Papgiannis will need time to evolve into an NBA post player physically, he already boasts a mid range shot and a nice touch at the rim. Labissiere, conversely, has rim protection qualities and a nice face up shot, but he’s raw in basketball knowledge, and tends to find early foul trouble.
The team lost a solid bench performer in the trade to the Charlotte Hornets, as shooting guard Marco Belinelli came off the bench 68 times for the Kings and contributed 10.2 points per game on an average of 24.6 minutes per appearance. with his departure, and the loss of Rondo’s 11.9 points per game, the team loses 22.1 points of offense.
Some of that will be made up by the addition of Richardson, a true freshman emerging into the NBA with gorgeous shooting motion and a nice wing span. However, Richardson is young and raw, and will likely be eased onto the basketball court as he improves and earns playing minutes.
Next: Kingside Free Agency
Kingside Free Agency
You cannot discuss free agency about the Sacramento Kings without acknowledging the void caused by the expiration of point guard Rajon Rondo’s contract, a player who delivered 11.9 points per game and 11.7 assists per game.
But the Kings had other free agents as well, of which only forward Caron Butler chose to remain with the team. Leaving are forward Quincy Acy, forward James Anderson, guard Seth Curry, center/forward Eric Moreland, and traded guard Marco Belinelli to the Charlotte Hornets.
Blue Man Hoop
To address the attrition, the Kings have committed to shooting guard Garrett Temple who averaged 7.3 points, 1.8 assists, and 2.7 rebounds in 24.4 minutes per game with the Washington Wizards last year in a reserve role. The team also added shooting guard Arron Afflalo from the Brooklyn Nets, who will likely slide in as the team’s starter.
The Kings also committed to former Detroit Pistons Anthony Tolliver. Tolliver has traveled the NBA, and will contribute offensively, but his defense is very limited by NBA standards.
Finally, as I finish the article, the Kings have committed to small forward Matt Barnes. Barnes is another traveler who will contribute some offense and has been known for staunch wing defense. But he is aging, and with age comes a loss of skills.
The real test will be the promotion of Darren Collison to the starting point guard role. While he can score at a decent clip, 14.0 points per game last season, his distribution is far less that that of Rondo, passing off just 4.3 assists per game.
With the arrival of Barnes, the likelihood of the team retaining forward Rudy Gay is bleak. Barnes is a starter, and the team will have enough to sort through without forcing a confrontation on the roster. With a trade of Gay likely, the team still needs to address the backup role at point guard, and sort through the four shooting guards currently on the roster.
UPDATE: Late on July 4, the Kings waived veteran Caron Butler and Duje Dukan
The Sacramento Kings have waived forwards Caron Butler and Duje Dukan. (Via The Vertical)
— Clevis Murray (@ClevisMurray) July 4, 2016
With all the moves, I do not see much improvement defensively, and I expect the offense to suffer dramatically as the team tries to involve the huge influx of youth from the draft. The Kings finished strongly in 2015-2016 to end up with 33 wins for the year. I cannot see them winning more than 28 games now.
Next: Pour Me A Cold Draft
Pour Me A Cold Draft
After a hot 2016 free agency in the NBA, the 2017 NBA Draft will seem almost anti-climatic. It’s still too early to project the record of NBA teams, but that will happen in the coming weeks. But we can focus on three teams.
With the addition of Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, Ben Simmons, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot this season, and with the point guard satisfied in the hands of T.J. McConnell and newly acquired Jerryd Bayless, much of the bad luck which plagued the Philadelphia 76ers last season will already be dashed aside.
Rum Bunter
While the team will be working minute restrictions and alternative game playing Joel Embiid, they will get production from him – something absent from the past two years. That contribution will allow the team to focus more intensely on the best use of Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel, even if that means a sixth man role. Saric and Simmons will upgrade the teams offense by kick-starting the transition fast breaks. And even Luwawu will get some minutes shooting from the arc.
The Philadelphia 76ers will finish with 25-30 wins.
Meanwhile the Lakers will not be as lucky. The retirement of Kobe Bryant was only partially addressed with the addition of Deng. The NBA worst offense became no better. I can see the Lakers finishing with 20-25 wins.
At the Sacramento Kings, the opposite is happening. Their NBA worst defense improved slightly, but their offense has eroded with the loss of key players and the influx of rookies. I see the Kings with 25-28 wins.
If this all plays out, and it’s a long shot since rosters have yet to be finalized and players meshed in practice, the Philadelphia 76ers could be picking twice in the top ten, even if they fall out of the lottery. Philadelphia will be an improving team with a constant annual stream of new talent.
Next: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot Is Officially A Philadelphia 76er
For now? We simply need to be patient enough to let it happen.