With a newly constructed roster featuring a huge upgrade in passing skills, can the Philadelphia 76ers expect the offense to improve? Yes, in a huge way.
What is equals what will be. Jahlil Okafor played 53 games in the NBA, so naturally the book on his play is now closed. Nerlens Noel has played two season in the NBA, finishing last year with 11.1 points per game, so naturally his offense will never improve. In fact, it’s that same perspective that launches so many of us to see this new roster and simply see a ten win team once more.
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Except life doesn’t work that way.
We grow. We change. We learn. We adapt. But most of all, we continue to try to improve.
The influx of new talent to the team this season has many focusing on the shooting skills. Can player “insert name here” shoot from the perimeter? Can player “insert another name here” defend?
But the key to the 2016-2017 season may lie in another, less discussed but equally electrifying statistic on the basketball court. The assist.
In the 2015-2016 season, the Philadelphia 76ers ranked 20th in the NBA in the assist department, generating 21.5 assists per game, while allowing opponents to manufacture 23.4 assists per game in response. That -1.9 assists per game was a huge problem for the team, primarily due to the absence of players who could manufacture their own shots.
This season, everything is about to change. Why is that important?
Next: Analytics Answers
Analytics Answers
Here’s the formula for the points produced by an individual players as per Tom Lyons review “What Wins Basketball Games” of Review of “Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis” By Dean Oliver.
"Points produced by an individual player: Points Produced=(FG Part + AST Part + FT Part) x (1- (TMOR÷TMScPoss) x TMORweight x TMPlay%) + OR part, where FG Part is 2x(FGM+ ½ x FG3M) x (1- ½ x (PTS-FTM÷2xFGA x q ast ); AST Part is 2 x [TMFGM-FGM = ½ (TMFG3M-FG3m)] ÷ (TMFGM-FGM) x ½ x [(TMPTS-TMFTM)-(PTS-FTM)] ÷ 2 x (TMFGA-FGA) x AST; FT Part is [1-(1-FT%) 2 ] x 0.4 FTA; and, OR Part is OR x TMOR weight x TMPlay% x TMPTS ÷ TMFGM + [1-(1-TMFT%) 2 ] x 0.4 x TMFTA."
The basic premise of this article was to break down the relevant statistical measure for a basketball team to assure winning a larger portion of games in a season. Those principals are:
Shoot a high field goal percentage (10).
Do not commit turnovers (5-6).
Get offensive rebounds (4-5).
Get to the foul line frequently (2-3).
Similarly, teams have four areas to focus on defensively. They are:
Make offensive players take low percentage shots.
Cause turnovers.
Box out and prevent offensive rebounds.
Avoid fouls.
Lets see how the Philadelphia 76ers (worst team) compared to the Golden State Warriors (best team) on these eight key indicators?
Next: And the Winner Is...
And the Winner Is…
The only way to do this correctly is to identify each component and analyze how the 76ers fared in comparison to how the Golden State Warriors fared.
Shoot a high field goal percentage (10).
This is relatively easy to identify. The Golden State Warriors shot at a 48.7 percent clip, while the Philadelphia 76ers shot at a 43.1 percent clip. The Warriors were best in the NBA, while the 76ers were 29th of 30 teams.
Air Alamo
Do not commit turnovers (5-6).
This was also an easy statistic to identify. The Golden State Warriors committed 14.9 turnovers per game, which was 25th in the league. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers committed 15.6 turnovers per game, which equated to 29th of 30 teams once more. Curiously, both teams had a turnover differential of 1.1 turnovers per game, which means that both teams trailed their opponent in this statistic.
Get offensive rebounds (4-5).
This is another easily identified statistic to locate. The Golden State Warriors generated 10.0 offensive rebounds per game, good for 20th in the league, while the Philadelphia 76ers generated 9.5 offensive rebounds, good for 25th in the same NBA
Get to the foul line frequently (2-3).
Foul shots are a curious statistic, as the Philadelphia 76ers went to the foul line 1,850 times, good for 19th in the league. The Golden State Warriors went to the foul line 1,790 times, equating to 23rd in the league. But the Warriors made 76.3 percent (16th) of those shots, while the 76ers only made 69.4 percent (28th).
Curiously, it was runaway successful season by the Warriors.
Next: Defensive Measures Bust the Myth
Defensive Measures Bust the Myth
The Defensive statistics were much more difficult to isolate. We find that the Warriors enjoyed a far better shot accuracy than their opponents at +5.2 percentage points, best in the NBA. while the 76ers cam in at 29th in the league with a deficit of -3.3 percentage points.
The 76ers actually cause turnovers, 1185 last year, good for 11th in the NBA, while the Warriors came in at 1130, 15th in the league.
Offensive rebounds were another statistic where the 76ers performed better: allowing just 913 rebounds for 21st in the NBA, while the Warriors came in at 25th in the league with 937.
Neither team performed exceptionally well in the opponents fouls department. Golden State came in 23rd with 2013 foul shots allowed, while Philadelphia allowed 2141 foul shots, good for 29th in the NBA.
So the mythbuster analysis for this complex series of measures is: BUSTED
But there has to be a simple measurable indicator of NBA success, we just need to find it. What can that be?
Next: Keep it simple sir
Keep It Simple Sir
So it has to be something… simple. I think shooting accuracy was a big player in the performances of the teams. I think assists is a big player in the performances of teams. I also think that three-point accuracy plays a huge part. Finally, I think rebounds is the final piece. Let’s test this simpler version of measure:
So we know that shooting accuracy was already tracked in the previous slide. The Golden State Warriors shot at a 48.7 percent clip, while the Philadelphia 76ers shot at a 43.1 percent clip. The Warriors were best in the NBA, while the 76ers were 29th of 30 teams.
Assists are another huge advantage of the Golden State Warriors. They clocked in at 2373 for the season, good for first by a mile, while the Philadelphia 76ers logged in 1765 assists, good for 20th in the NBA.
In three point shooting accuracy, the Warriors shot with 41.6 percent (1st) accuracy from long range, while the 76ers shot with much less impressive 33.9 percent (24th) from that range.
In rebounds, the Golden State Warriors surrendered just 3599 rebounds, good for 15th best in the NBA. The Philadelphia 76ers, conversely, gave up 3900 rebounds, worst in the league.
This seems to track more closely to NBA results. Poor teams rank poorly by their inability to rebound, while the upper ranks of the NBA are define by assists and shooting accuracy.
So improvement in these four areas should result in a dramatic improvement of wins. What do the new players bring to the team?
Next: Got What Brown Wanted
Got What Brown Wanted
If you draw the common thread among the new arrivals to the team this season, what is the theme?
Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, Gerald Henderson, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot each contribute upgrades in at least two of the four areas just discussed: Shooting Accuracy, Assists, Rebounds, and Three Point Accuracy.
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In fact, if you focus on Simmons, Saric and Hernandez, you will see all three newcomers have superior passing ability. Not just a proclivity to pass, but the type of ball distribution which unto itself can make highlight films.
The Philadelphia 76ers offense is scheme dependent. With the exception of Jahlil Okafor, Robert Covington, Carl Landry, and T.J. McConnell to some extent, most of the players fall into a catch and shoot variety. Some rely upon getting to a specific point on the court, setting up for the pass, and shooting.
Often the ball never arrived, and the ball-handler had to go elsewhere or take a lower percentage shot.
In this new offense, in a lineup with some combination of Simmons, Saric, and Hernandez, the ball will get there. Looking back at the Philadelphia 76ers offense last season, the arrival of point guard Ish Smith , the team had a huge spike in offensive production. In November 2015, the team’s offense sputtered at 91.5 points per game. When Ish Smith arrived, the same offense blasted ahead to over 100 points per game. While some of that coincided to the arrival of assistant coach Mike D’Antoni, the reality is that Smith connected to his teammates, putting up the sweet alley oops that are so vital to the offense of Nerlens Noel and Richaun Holmes. Prior to Smith’s arrival, Noel seldom strung together consecutive double digit scoring games. After Smith, he strung together six games with better than 10 points twice.
Next: Simmons and the Rising Tide Effect
Simmons and the Rising Tide Effect
I don’t think Ben Simmons impact will ever truly be measured effectively this season. He brings a threat of a triple double (points, rebounds, assists) to virtually each NBA game where he makes an appearance.
But that’s just one layer.
Hoops Habit
His pace, his presence, his passing, will have an effect of making his teammates much more effective – directly and passively. Because he is so quick to pass to the open shooter, players will get cleaner looks and will score more accurately. But that is just the direct benefit. Because he will involve whichever teammate who should get open, each player, with or without the ball, will be engaged in the play at the moment. They will need to move effectively without the ball, set up, and then reposition to the next shot location, until the shot is made.
Much like a football quarterback who throws the ball to all receivers gets the entire offense involved, so too will Simmons force teammates to remain in play. And Simmons is just one layer. Dario Saric has a similar ability to pass, and also a very accurate perimeter shot. So a Simmons to Saric To shoot or to pass to the next shooter can happen in a fraction of a second. Add Rodriguez as a third level to kick the ball out to and reset the play and you have the makings of a lot of ball movement, nearly the “blur” offense from football.
That rapid ball movement will give the set and shoot players a fighting chance on offense now. If the defense remains stationary, the open shooter makes the clean shot. If the defense collapses to the ball, the ball moves to the next open shooter.
Even if Nerlens Noel never learns another shot, alley oops coming his way could kick his offense up another six points per game. That’s just three more shots made, and that’s definitely within the scope of this offense now.
Next: Never Had It This Good
Never Had It This Good
Head Coach Brett Brown is a patient and upbeat guy, but the past three years have taken a terrible toll on his outlook.
Sir Charles In Charge
Fortunately, the dawn has arrived. If you don’t think this season is completely different than last season, let’s recap what the season opener looked like from the head coach’s perspective. The team had no identifiable point guard. The center position was a mess, as Brown had to sort through a returning veteran Noel and a rookie arrival in Jahlil Okafor, the roster was filled with holes as the team did not have the services of power forward Carl Landry (wrist), guard Tony Wroten and Kendall Marshall (ACLs), center Joel Embiid (foot), shooting guard Nik Stauskas (muscle strain) and small forward Robert Covington was injured on the last game of pre-season and would miss the first three weeks.
No point guard translated into Isaiah Canaan trying to fill the role. Too many centers in Okafor and Noel translated into Okafor playing center and Noel playing power forward, and then Noel playing center and Okafor at power forward, and then just Noel playing center. The injury list translated into players returning to the active roster as late into the season as January 2016, only to have the top scorer shut down in late February 2016.
But this year, the only variables will be, for the most part, who will start.
That’s huge for head coach Brett Brown. Last year, he frantically exclaimed, even as the season started, that he needed another month to sort out who should play where. Now, the only question is who to send onto the floor first.
Next: Brown Can FInally Coach
Brown Can Finally Coach
After years of troubleshooting, patching roster holes, and “making do”, it’s nearly impossible to perceive the team this season falling into a pattern even remotely similar to previous seasons.
If the team had only Joel Embiid arriving at center, there would still be concerns about the back court.
If the team had only addressed the back court in free agency, there would still be concerns about the health of Joel Embiid and the likelihood of whether Dario Saric would ever arrive.
Air Alamo
If the team had only announced the debuts of red-shirted players Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, the fanbase would be locked into the wishful thinking of what might have been had the team landed the first pick of the 2016 NBA Draft and landed the talk of the NBA in Ben Simmons.
But all of these events, diminished in their luminescence only from the fact that they are all shining together in unison, have happened, and have changed the trajectory of the Philadelphia 76ers going forward.
The team, knowing it had to build a team around the strengths of Simmons, did so. No, the “splash” factor never truly happened. No big name free agent arrived in Philadelphia, and that’s okay. What did arrive in terms of free agents are veterans who fit like a glove in Brown’s vision of Pace, Space and Pass.
The 76ers ended the 2015-2016 season by averaging 100.8 points over the last ten games of the season. That was a team without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor. The Philadelphia 76ers roster, as it stands, and average that score over the course of the season this year. If they manage to do so, they would project at about the 22nd offense in the league, and would project with approximately 30 wins next year.
Next: Philadelphia 76ers' Core: Ultimate Roster Analysis and Predictions
There’s no magic or voodoo about this. The team simply needs to focus on improving a basic fundamental level of statistics, and the wins should take care of themselves. With the influx of new faces, and huge surge in talent potential, success will not come as sparingly as it had before.
It was all part of the process.