Can These Philadelphia 76ers Win Games?

In the off-season, the Philadelphia 76ers added new faces and waived goodbye to some familiar ones. In the end, can it mean more wins?

Ten wins.  In a season with a 14 man roster competing in 82 games against 15 man rosters, the Philadelphia 76ers could only muster ten wins.  In many ways, the season spelled the end of the relationship of former president and general manager Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers, as the team brought in Bryan Colangelo to take over.  It was that disappointing of a season.

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But to be fair, ten wins was a fairly Herculean accomplishment when you assess last year’s team as a whole.  You may recall that we had discussed the myriad of challenges which faced the team last season: no clear point guard, a roster limping into and out of the season with barely enough players to dress for a rotating lineup, a point guard which arrived under the Christmas tree- but whose arrival was soon followed by the top scorer being shut down for an entire season.

For every bit of positive news the team received, there seemed to be an equal disappointment within days.  It was the type of season where players had to reach deep within themselves to overcome adversity.  How else would two players from a ten win team achieve participation on the 2016 USA Team Select?  How else would an undrafted rookie point guard from this ten win team score votes for the All-Star Rookie team?

In a season with epic struggles from the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, and Brooklyn Nets, no team faced so many hurdles in one season.  But somehow these Philadelphia 76ers ended the year with ten wins.

But it’s not enough to say that the team will win xx number of games (insert win total there at xx) without justifying the improvement.  So let’s discuss why this team will be better and use the reasons to build a meaningful win total for next season.

Next: Ten Win Base

Ten Win Base

Just by showing up this year, with the veterans returning, the Philadelphia 76ers are good for ten wins. The team has not dumped any returning players yet, and for the most part, each player coming back learned a great deal last season.

It was not a free ride.  Head coach Brett Brown made ample use of his available talent, plugging and playing them as he saw fit to attempt to build some success on the basketball court, and some chemistry in the locker room.

That “made to order” lineup benefited the team in two ways:  it gave each player a personal challenge of learning new roles or learning the varying styles of teammates in a different position, and it focused the team’s energies on that game, and not a repetitious pattern of same guys, same roles, same defeat.

It also justified the mentoring, coaching, development of the young roster.  Even players who thought themselves in a bench role (ala Elton Brand and Carl Landry) were eventually called into service and showed that preparation is very important to a team.

Those same dynamics will be at work this season, and with it comes the knowledge that the players could answer the call.

Next: Wing D

Wing D

The Philadelphia 76ers struggled defending the perimeter last season.   For a time, it seemed that both veterans and rookies launched into their career highs against Philly, forcing the team to spread out to challenge beyond the arc.  That opened up lanes for those same plays to drive to the basket against an overmatched Jahlil Okafor at center.

Not a good situation.

But it started from a porous perimeter defense.

The Philadelphia 76ers did not make many moves, but they did address the defense of the perimeter. In adding two veterans in shooting guard Gerald Henderson and Jerryd Bayless, the team is banking on healthy and more stalwart play.

Even the competition should improve the play of returning Hollis Thompson and Nik Stauskas, particularly if they remain on the roster at the 15 man roster cuts.  By all accounts, this is an area that has improved dramatically.

Additional Wins from Improvement:

PLUS FIVE

Next: On the Rebound

On The Rebound

A statistical indication of just how poorly the Philaldelphia 76er played last season is found in their rebounds. Despite having two NBA starting centers on the roster, the team averaged dead last in rebounds per game at 41.2. Conversely, the team allowed opponents to bring down the ball 47.6 rebounds per game, with a differential of negative (6.4).

In the off-season, the team added point forward Ben Simmons, power forward Dario Saric, and center Joel Embiid.  While no player will play 48 minutes, we know that Dario Saric can rebound very well

We also know that is true for Ben Simmons as well:

And with 7-foot-2 inch Joel Embiid, we simply need to rely on faith for now.  The good news is that the team could find a way to have all three players on the court simultaneously.  But what of Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant, and even Richaun Holmes?

They simply take their place in the rotation, coming off the bench to face the other teams reserves.  It’s that assignment of key defensive players to the bench which will be the true boon for the Philadelphia 76ers.  And in adding rebounds to the team, they get the added bonus of denying a rebound for their opponents

Additional Wins from Improvement:

PLUS SEVEN

Next: Movement

Movement

When the Philadelphia 76ers take the court this year, they will be a completely different team. I’m not referring to new faces, but to a new style. Last season, head coach Brett Brown admitted that without a veteran point guard, and with a rookie center leading the offense, he had to simplify his plays to basic options.

That simplification allowed opponents to outguess, and stymie, the Philadelphia 76ers offense.

But in the 2016-2017 season, the team not only have a starting caliber point guard, but likely has the makings of one of the best ball movement teams in the NBA.   That gives Brown the green light to open up the offense from day one.

The key will be to get the ball to the open man, something like this play:

With the team’s addition of Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, and Sergio Rodriguez, the passing and assist game has just received a huge booster shot.

It won’t happen on every night.  It won’t happen consistently through the course of the game.  But there will be times when the transition game – fast break will give an appearance of the Philadelphia 76ers being nearly unbeatable.

The action will start with Ben Simmons, who is always dangerous to score a triple double on any given evening.  His refined passing skills, merged with that of Saric and Rodriguez, will give the Philadelphia 76ers offense a kick.  Defensive players who rely upon scheme to make shots like Nerlens Noel or Richaun Holmes will get a huge bump in offense.  Even the likes of Robert Covington will see improvement as he will get cleaner looks from beyond the arc.

Additional Wins from Improvement:

PLUS SIX

Next: Competition and Contract Years

Competition and Contract Years

This year marks the last contract year for: Nerlens Noel, T.J. McConnell, Hollis Thompson, Carl Landry, and newly signed Sergio Rodriguez. While it’s likely a safe bet to assume that the team will not pursue retaining all five players, there is always that extra incentive for the players to do especially well statistically in what has become know as a “contract year”.

In any pro sport, that last year of an existing contract usually finds the best from that athlete, eager to play well enough to assure an optimal contract offer in the off-season. But in the case of the NBA, that contract year is important in another way as well:

In the collective bargaining agreement, the NBA has created a slotted salary arrangement for rookies entering the league via the draft, while focusing the payouts of the contracts to happen after that rookie contract expires.  That means McConnell, Thompson, and Noel will likely be looking to earn significantly more next season.

Compounding that is the fact that the NBA careers usually see steady improvement over time until years five through seven in a player’s career.  Many players enter the league at 20 or younger, and it takes several years for their body to develop fully to compete with mature veterans.

While none of the five players will be assured of starting, and will likely be pulling their minutes from the bench, Brown has demonstrated a keen awareness in being willing to give the entire roster significant playing time, and will modify the lineup to get the hot hand onto the court.

With a double reward system in place of huge payout next season and earning playing time, it will come as no surprise to find one or more of these five making huge strides this season, enough to make a difference in some games’ outcomes.

Additional Wins from Improvement:

PLUS TWO

Next: Thirty Wins

Thirty Wins

We’ve ended up at thirty wins, which is a significant improvement over last year, and will enough of an improvement to have the NBA talking about the Philadelphia 76ers in a positive light once more.

Predicting this early always leaves plenty of room for that “margin of error”.  If the team deals before the season, if a player is injured, or even if the team struggles to find complimentary play out of the intended starting lineup, that number could evaporate rather quickly.

But the opposite holds true as well:  if the team comes out of the gate with a good run, if the team chemistry gels right away, or even if the team finds some potent offense early, this could be a team which may flirt with .500 play.

This team will surprise some folks this year.  They are a solid team this season with complimentary pieces, are entering this year the healthiest they’ve been since the 2013-2014 season, and are for all intents and purposes on the upswing.

Thirty wins may not seem like big news to many.  After all, that means that this team will lose 52 games if true.  Thirty wins will ensure that the team will be getting a 2017 NBA Draft lottery pick, and that the team will still be looking to improve the roster.

But thirty wins is a 300% improvement over the ten win ending from the 2015-2016 season.  It will mark the first season of rookie Ben Simmon, as well as red-shirted Joel Embiid and Dario Saric.  It will finally renew hope into the dreams of the young roster of the Philadelphia 76ers, a hope that there is light at the end of a very long and disappointing tunnel of futility.

Next: Philadelphia 76ers Could Choose Between Cat Barber, Nik Stauskas

Thirty wins may not seem like much now, but it could be the first step towards a championship for the city of Philadelphia.