Starting at the bottom of the pile, the Philadelphia 76ers have their work cut out for them. But with new talent on the roster, and a bright future ahead of them, can these Philadelphia 76ers overtake the Golden State Warriors atop the NBA?
If you examine the history of the NBA championship series, two things stand out. The first thing noticed is the fact that the Philadelphia 76ers have not appeared in the championship game since 2001, the year that Allen Iverson and Dikembe Mutombo led the 76ers in a Cinderellas-like season, only to be turned away in the championship against the Los Angeles Lakers by Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant. But the second surprising fact is the turn-style effect of teams appearing in the championship series.
With few exceptions, the top teams seem to rise to the top of the NBA for no more than three seasons. While the reasons for each individual situation can vary greatly, that is the likely period of time reflecting the contract duration for the top players.
Top players demand the team’s top salary. To make room, the team must often part ways with very important support players in order to meet their stars compensation expectations. Subsequently, the team becomes weaker, not stronger, as the supporting cast of the team is diluted via attrition.
And so, right now the meter is running on the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors. Both teams have or intend to reload for the 2016-2017 NBA season, but each have some questions going forward. While the Warriors have signed the ultimate free agent in Kevin Durant, he still must demonstrate that he enhances, and doesn’t detract, from last season’s chemistry. Meanwhile the Cavaliers have their own pitfalls, as they recently waived Dahntay Jones, a player who played a minor role but in a major way to help defeat the Warriors.
The Cavs waived Dahntay Jones because his $1.6 million salary would have become guaranteed Monday for the entire 2016-17 season. BUT ...
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) July 31, 2016
That’s pretty much the challenge atop the NBA, how to stay there.
Next: The Climb
The Climb
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers are looking for ways to approach a .500 record this season. While they have added some serious talent this year in the forms of Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, and Ben Simmons, the fact that all three are joining the team’s front court means that the team will be working to acclimate a number of rookies simultaneously, again.
But this is a gradual slope this year, and not scaling the face of the NBA cliff from previous seasons. That’s because this year the team has at least three players which can easily be identified as the building blocks to the future. While last season and the two previous years were seeking the cornerstone, the Sixers have at least one in Simmons. If the health of Joel Embiid holds out, that could be the second. If the physicality, scoring from the perimeter, and the rebounding of Dario Saric does not vanish in the NBA, he could prove to be a third piece.
The timetable for such an ascent, using the Golden State Warriors as the template, will likely prove to be in the 2020 time frame or thereabouts. The Warriors arrived to the NBA championship in the 2014-2015 season, the sixth year of point guard Stephen Curry, and the third year for shooting guard Klay Thompson. In the interim, the team had to say goodbye to Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, and Stephen Jackson and place their trust in the younger players entering the league.
Soon, the Philadelphia 76ers will need to begin waiving off some of their talented players, invest the dollars in the true elite of the team, and continue a steady stream of bringing in talent from the draft to fill the roster with strong affordable production.
Right now, the progression is in the second stage: building around the core. Eventually, the team will face where to commit the dollars of the franchise towards the future.
Next: Third Stage
Third Stage
Next season, the Philadelphia 76ers will face their first true test of free agency. The team will face the free agency of Sergio Rodriguez, Carl Landry, Nerlens Noel, Hollis Thompson, and T.J. McConnell. Right now, with the current roster, the team could absorb the loss of these five players. Right now, the team is a ten win team.
But if the roster gels just so, and if a player gets incredibly hot this season, how will the team fare then? If Sergio Rodriguez has a Rajon Rondo sort of season with the 76ers, distributing 12 assists? If Nerlens Noel discovers a willingness to score points and averages 17 points per game while maintaining his defensive presence? If T.J.McConnell emerges in just his second year in a Dennis Schroder caliber point guard coming off the bench?
What then? Tough love.
That’s the true test, a test this team has yet to face. Can the eyes on this team see in players that which is not yet measured? Can the team through the course of a flawed rotation determine if Joel Embiid in authentically good? If so, which of the centers does the team need to retain, or should they simply rent them and allow them to seek NBA contracts elsewhere?
As long as the team continues to build the right talent around their core, it really won’t matter. Building a championship takes time, perception aside. The 76ers anticipated the challenges facing the team, and have built an infrastructure around and among the players to ensure that they experience the premium package in the NBA. When you fly first class, your entire vacation takes on that experience.
As the team parses the dollars for the next wave of NBA contracts, the team will need new players to fill the void, and hopefully learn from the veterans on the team. That is why the team’s drafting of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Furkan Korkmaz this year is so significantly strategic. Akin to a Hinkie maneuver, the team has assured themselves of a bolster to both offense and defense as they turn towards rewarding their best players, as the team goes through the process of adding some punch to the team’s back court.
Next: Can 76ers Compete?
Can 76ers Compete?
If it all falls into place, in two years the team will find Ben Simmons running point guard, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot at shooting guard, Jerami Grant or Robert Covington at small forward, Dario Saric at power forward and Joel Embiid at center.
While there may be some speculation who takes the starting role in the lineups, the competition among the players will define this team to have the following traits:
(1) Height. This will not be a small team. Rebounds and post play could be run by anyone in the lineup. That will give the team a huge advantage, literally.
(2) Ball Movement. Both Ben Simmons and Dario Saric use the pass in the way head coach Brett Brown envisioned. Rapid ball movement disorients defenses, and is one of the attributes that gives the Golden State Warriors an advantage. In this 76ers lineup, the team could hold their own against the Warriors.
(3) Pace. Much like the ball movement, the pace of the 76ers will be very quick indeed. The same players pulling down defensive rebounds can hurl court-long passes to the open man at the basket. Fast breaks will become a staple for the team. But with the height advantage, even slowing the game down will prove the team capable of manufacturing points from designed plays.
(4) Space. As the team begins to bring on the shooters – Korkmaz and Luwawu – the lineup will add quite a bit of fun to it. If the pair develops ball handling skills we have already seen the flashes of, the 76ers will have three perimeter shoots (Korkmaz, Luwawu, Saric), a post shooter who can take mid range shots in Embiid, and a ball handler who will have the ability to shoot from anywhere.
Next: When Will Furkan Korkmaz Play For Philadelphia 76ers?
Sum it all together and alongside the timeline of the Warriors inevitable decline, and it’s conceivable that these Philadelphia 76ers could rise to dethrone the Warriors in three years.