Basketball’s Elite sometimes rise from modest debuts. Can you tell whether an NBA star is born from their rookie year performance?
I love connecting with Philadelphia 76ers fans. Whether you believe in what Sam Hinkie was doing, or hope for what Bryan Colangelo will be doing, eventually when we get to the objective assessments of the team and the players, I learn something new.
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So I was shocked when I began to discover just how many fans truly believe that our current roster is not afflicted merely with youth and experience, but are truly infected with a ceiling of potential which will not give them much of a chance on any basketball roster – regardless of how many years experience they accumulate. I am taking it upon myself to settle the “delta” of opinions.
It takes time to turn an NBA prospect into NBA talent, and even longer to turn that player into an NBA elite. Derrick Rose may be a cite-able exception, but few players take the NBA by storm out of the gate. That’s not opinion, it’s demonstrable with the track record of NBA rookies.
Perception is another matter altogether. We often are critical of those we love as we are more familiar with their flaws. Discerning the errors of something on a broader scope is more difficult. One could conclude to reason that our perceptions may affect our opinions.
Next: Let's play a game?
Let’s play a game?
In one corner, I stand, perhaps alone, and with me stands the legend of Sam Hinkie and The Process. In our opinion, the past three years was not intentionally “tanking” as much as it was trying to sort through as many young players to make a more qualified educated guess as to who might play a role, large or small, on an eventual championship caliber team. The theory of this group is that young players all start out with a learning curve on the NBA. Some make it and some don’t. But it’s the luck of the draw and some educated hunches as to who can elevate their game from the NCAA to the NBA.
In the other corner stands the opposing view. In the opposition opinion, the past three years was a controlled burn… a systemic means to lose to drive the Sixers down and therefore their draft chances up. The roster, with an exception of three-four players, has no business in an NBA jersey. In that assessment, youth or veteran will not make a difference, and this roster needs to shelve ten players in exchange for ten players from other NBA rosters or the draft in order to have true competitive validity.
Who’s right? Let’s go down the path of a simple slide show. The first slides will run statistics and biographical information at you. You decide whether the player is worth keeping or chucking. Then, at the end, the slides will reveal who that player turned out to be. We can judge whether you know your stuff on the honor system.
Next: NBA or D-League Candidate Number One
NBA or D-League Candidate Number One
This young man’s information just arrived at your desk. You have a meeting with President Bryan Colangelo in ten minutes, and you need to recommend signing or passing on this player.
What do you do?
You look down at the profiles. You notice the following:
Player one is 23 years old. Player two is 20 years old. Both play point guard.
Player one played in 81 games, and started in just 17 games.
Player two played in 49 games, and started in zero games.
Since the players are uneven in their playing time, you flip forward to the “per 36 minutes” section.
Player one shot 47 percent from the field, and 34.8 percent from three point range.
Player two shot 38.3 percent from the field, and 23.8 percent from three point range.
Player one tossed 8.2 assists per 36, 2.1 steals per 36, .2 blocks per 36, and scored 11.1 points per 36.
Player two tossed 5.2 assists per 36, 1.0 steals per 36, .0 blocks per 36, and scored 10.3 points per 36.
Player one is coming in at a price of the league minimum of $525,093
Player two is coming in at $1,348,200 for his rookie season.
Bryan Colangelo just called: Who are you recommending to be signed?
Next: NBA or D-League Candidate Number Two
NBA or D-League Candidate Number Two
This time, it’s 11:50 AM. Colangelo is mulling over your last recommendation and his secretary has just handed you the next files of two new candidates to consider for signing or waiving.
Player one is a center who appeared in 82 games and started all 82 games in his first year as a rookie.
Player two is also a center who appeared in just 53 games, but started in 48 games.
Once more, to level the playing field, you flip to the “per 36 minutes” of the stats sheets.
Player one is 21 years old, and player two is 19 years old. It seems that the order of files has been older first, and you take note of that to ensure they are returned in the same order.
Player one accounted for 19.4 points per 36, 11.0 total rebounds per 36, 2.3 blocks per 36, and 2.5 assists per 36.
Player two accounted for 21.0 points per 36, 8.4 total rebounds per 36, 1.4 blocks per 36, and 1.5 assists per 36.
Player one shot 54.9 percent from the floor, and 66.2 percent from the free throw line.
Player two shot 50.8 percent from the floor, and 68.6 percent from the free throw line.
Bryan Colangelo just popped his head in on his way to lunch and needs your answer now. Who will you recommend to sign, and who will you recommend to pass on?
Next: NBA or D-League Candidate Number Three
NBA or D-League Candidate Number Three
You have just returned from lunch at the new dining facility of the Philadelphia 76ers training center just built in New Jersey, and you are fighting off the mid-afternoon drowsies. Thinking a cola from the vending machine might just do the trick, you head out and pass by Bryan Colangelo’s office to see if he has any feedback from the first two recommendations you submitted.
After answering that you had, in fact, reviewed the material fully for the first two choices, Colangelo reluctantly hands you a third pair of folders.
Cola in hand, you return to your desk, troubled by the recent exchange.
Motivated to show the boss your true worth, you begin to look over the new players’ information.
Player one is a 23 year old small forward who appeared in just 7 games and started in zero.
Player two is a 19 year old small forward who appeared in 79 games, and started in all 79.
Your fingers automatically begin to flip to the “Per 36 Minutes” stats out of habit.
Player one scored 16.9 points per 36 mins, while shooting 42.9 percent from the floor, and 36.4 percent from three point range.
Player two scored 19.1 points per 36 mins, while shooting 41.7 percent from the floor and just 29.0 percent from three point range.
Player one added 5.3 rebounds per 36 mins, and 2.1 steals per 36.
Player two added 5.0 rebounds per 36 mins, and 1.5 steals per 36.
The phone rang and a stern Bryan Colangelo asked you if he interrupted your nap, and wants your immediate feedback. Who will you recommend to sign, and who will you recommend to pass on?
Next: NBA or D-League Candidate Number Four
NBA or D-League Candidate Number Four
Bryan Colangelo is beginning to send player evaluations elsewhere, as he is starting to question your recommendations. You find that the other evaluator is overwhelmed, and you are given a rush order on a player’s stat sheets. This is your chance to win the top dog’s favor. His secretary tossed a pair of folders on your desk rather curtly.
You quickly scan and notice this is a pair of shooting guards.
Player one is a 22 year old shooting guard who played in 77 games and started in 41 of them. Player two is a 20 year old shooting guard who played in 76 games and started in zero.
Without hesitation, you flip back to the “Per 36 Minutes” section, and ask yourself why you are thinking about flipping back to the “Per 36 Minutes”. You make a note to stop thinking aloud for the next recommendation.
Player one is shooting 46.0 percent from the floor, 40.1 percent from three point range, and 71.2 percent from the free throw line.
Meanwhile, you find that player two is shooting 40.3 percent from the floor, 37.5 percent from three point range, and 80.8 percent from the free throw line.
Player one is scoring 9.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.1 steals per 36 minutes of play.
Player two is scoring 15.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per 36 minutes of play.
Just as you reach for your cola, the phone rings and you knock the contents of the can all over your shirt. You dab yourself off as best you can and finally answer the phone to a very impatient and annoyed Bryan Colangelo. You are overdue on the evaluation, and Colangelo asks if you need to see a doctor. As you decline, he insists on getting verbal confirmation of your recommendation.
Who will you recommend to sign, and who will you recommend to pass on?
Next: NBA or D-League Candidate Number Five
NBA or D-League Candidate Number Five
This is another rush job. Can you say whether to sign or pass? Bryan Colangelo is looking to promote someone from the scouting department, and if you nail this one on the head, you may become manager.
You’ve donned your jacket and buttoned it to mask the hideous tracks of cola all over your shirt.
Once more you are handed two folders and note that the order is still older first.
Player one is a 22 year old power forward who appeared in 51 games and started in just one. Player two is a 19 year old power forward who appeared in 64 games and started in 60.
Flipping to the stats, you note that player one scored 14.7 points per 36 minutes while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor, 18.2 percent from three point range, and 68.9 percent from the free throw line.
Player one scored 16.9 points per 36 minutes on 51.6 percent shooting from the floor, no shooting from three point range, and 75.1 percent from the free throw line.
You also take note that Player one generated 6.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, and 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes.
Player two likewise pulled down 10.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes.
Colangelo’s secretary stops by for your recommendation, and comments on your wearing a suit coat in a very warm office. As you stammer for a good reply, she holds out her hand and asks for your recommendation for Mr. Colangelo.
Who will you recommend to sign, and who will you recommend to pass on?
Next: NBA or D-League Candidate Number Six
NBA or D-League Candidate Number Six
Its down to two of you. The same stats sheet has been handed to both of you. You need to get this one right. Immediately you notice both candidates are 20 years old. Panic begins to settle in as you expected the ages to be different.
Searching for birth dates, you locate one birthday is before the other. At peace now, you place the first birthday data to the left and determine that is player one, and the second folder to the right and that is player two.
You note player one is 6-foot-8 210 pounds. He has scored 10.7 points in 36 minutes of play, appearing in 65 games and starting in 11. Player one shot 35.2 percent from the floor, 31.4 percent from three point range, and 59.1 percent from the free throw line.
Player one also chipped in 5.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes.
You next turn your attention to player two. You note player two is 6-foot-9 220 pounds. He has scored 13.5 points in 36 minutes of play, appearing in 61 games and starting in 19. Player two shot 45.3 percent from the floor, 29.7 percent from three point range, and 76.2 percent from the free throw line.
Player two also chipped in 6.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 steals, and .7 blocks per 36 minutes.
Your competition just turned in his recommendation, and you have been asked to submit your final recommendation.
Who will you recommend to sign, and who will you recommend to pass on?
Next: Answer Key
Answer Key
And so it goes. You made the selections. Now its up to your honor to keep track of who you want on the 76ers team.
Who did you select in the first evaluation?
If you selected player one, you have agreed to sign T.J. McConnell, reserve point guard of the Philadelphia 76ers.
If you wanted to take a chance on player two, you signed up Dennis Schroder, now starting point guard for the Atlanta Hawks, and a player the Philadelphia 76ers hotly pursued at the trade deadline in 2016.
Who did you select in the second evaluation?
If you selected player one, you agreed to sign up center Tim Duncan, starting center just retired for the San Antonio Spurs.
If you selected player two, you agreed to sign up center Jahlil Okafor, center for your very own Philadelphia 76ers.
Who did you select in the third evaluation?
If you selected player one, you think like Sam Hinkie, who absolutely loved Robert Covington‘s signing.
If you selected player two, you just agreed to sign up small forward LeBron James.
Who did you select in the fourth evaluation?
If you selected player one, you have signed veteran shooting guard Hollis Thompson to the Philadelphia 76ers.
If you liked the player two, you have just brought former Kloe Kardashian’s boyfriend James Harden to the team.
Who did you select in the fifth evaluation?
If you went with player one, you have signed Richaun Holmes to the Philadelphia 76ers.
If you liked player two, you have just brought New Orleans Pelican’s Anthony Davis to Philadelphia.
Who did you select in the sixth evaluation?
If you selected player one, you have signed up Jerami Grant to the Philadelphia 76ers. If you preferred player two, you have signed up Paul George to play for the Philadelphia 76ers.
And now you get to just your work.
Did you stick with 76ers players? see A below.
Had you retained 4-5 Philadelphia 76ers players? see B.
For those of you who retained 1-3 Philadelphia 76ers? see C.
If you eliminated all of the Philadelphia 76ers, see D
Next: Nerlens Noel's Twitter Picture: A Thousand Words
Brett Brown stops by your office to:
(A) Thank You for retaining his team.
(B) Ask you if you are not feeling too well.
(C) Ask you what you did last year before trying to dabble in NBA personnel decisions
(D) Ask you which of Jerry Colangelo’s sons are you?