The Impact Of Ben Simmons

Predicting the impact of a rookie in the NBA is tough work, particularly when that rookie is joining a young team with no clear role defined. But if any rookie can positively impact on his NBA debut, it will be Ben Simmons.

When the Philadelphia 76ers selected Ben Simmons with the first pick of the 2016 NBA Draft, it was a monumental event for the franchise.  Despite struggling to find success on the basketball court, that failure on wins never seemed to help the cause in the subsequent NBA lottery.

Had the 76ers drafted true to their season finish, the team would have had the twelfth pick in the 2013 Draft, the second pick in the 2014 Draft, the third pick in the 2015 Draft, and the first pick in the 2016 Draft.  History shows that the team picked 11th, 3rd, 3rd, and 1st respectively.

Until last season, the Philadelphia 76ers had to place their rookie expectations on “hold”.  In 2013, the debut of Nerlens Noel was delayed a season.  By 2014, the debuts of both Joel Embiid and Dario Saric were delayed two seasons. Finally, in 2015 center Jahlil Okafor was selected and scored very well for the team, leading the team in scoring at 17.5 points per game, despite fighting double and sometimes triple teams.

But in the 2016-2017 season, conditions have changed.  With the addition of three free agent signings, and the debut of four rookies, the Philadelphia 76ers could conceivably have an entirely new starting lineup.

And the new lineup will be led by rookie Ben Simmons.

Next: Familiarity

Familiarity

Much of the NBA, well professional sports for that matter, hinges on first impressions.  If the first appearance is lights out good, the expectation is that performance is par, and will be expected.  If the first appearance is less than stellar, phrases like “bust” are tossed into conversation far too rapidly.

No matter what your expectation and tolerance, the Philadelphia 76ers will be run on head coach Brett Brown’s timetable.  And he is a very very patient man.

As we had expected long before the Philadelphia 76ers were blessed with the first overall pick of the NBA draft, this combination unites Brown with the prodigy of his former player in Australia, David Simmons

"“This is the real story behind it. Ben Simmons is the son of someone I coached for four years,” Brown said. “I was his dad’s assistant coach when I was with the Melbourne Tigers and his mom was the head cheerleader and then here comes Ben Simmons. David Simmons was from Harlem, New York. He could have been a linebacker, he could have been a prize fighter. (Dave Simmons) was a basketball player more out of athleticism and girth than he was out of finesse and skill. He was a tough, tough 6-8 and hard like an Anthony Mason-type player.His son is finesse and a 3, 1, 4. Really different.” – Brett Brown discussing Ben Simmons prior to the NBA Draft"

Ben Simmons is unique.  He has the skill set of a back court player in the body of a front court physique. He can rebound and distribute. Simmons can pass and run plays.  Finally, he can score and block.  But what position on the NBA basketball court can apply all these skillsets simultaneously.

That is the quest of head coach Brett Brown this season. He’s had a great deal of time to ponder how best to develop this rookie, nearly 20 years to be exact.

Next: Slow Build

Slow Build

This is not to say that this is a square peg trying to be fitted into a round hole. Rather, it’s more akin to having a skeleton key, and trying to determine which lock to unlock first.  You see, Simmons has been indoctrinated into the world of basketball from birth.  He’s never known a world without it.

That familiarity has given the rookie a comprehension of what each player’s role is on the basketball court.  One of the fundamentals of leading is a requirement to understand the roles of those being led. Simmons understands the basketball court.  That’s step one.

But the trust required to run a team has yet to begin.  Who will be on the court, how will they handle pressure by the defense, which direction will they break?  Virtually every tendancy of a player defines where they will expect the ball.  With someone as gifted at passing as Ben Simmons, that is important information.

But don’t expect Brown to run Simmons at point guard initially.  The team signed up Sergio Rodriguez to run the point guard position as a segue to Simmons assuming the point guard role. But that slow deliberate approach is more than just to slow down the game for the point man.

The entire lineup will be new to the coaching staff.   The limits of last seasons 14 man roster which fought through multiple injuries on mulitple occasions is behind the team now.  Those factors limited Brown’s offense to a base vanilla scheme.

Vanilla is a terrible flavor for an NBA playbook.

This team may start out with a simple approach, but the plays will layer in options and complexity, giving the offense more looks and more opportunities to score.

Next: It's Still Basketball

It’s Still Basketball

Basketball has principals that govern it.  Shoot, dribble, pass, block, steal, rebound.  Master those techniques, and you can play in the NBA.

Simmons is already way ahead of the curve on most areas.  In his rookie season, his two areas to work on will be his defense and his shooting.   Brown has already mentioned shooting as an area of focus.   Eventually, we’ll see the rookie work on his perimeter game.

Simmons commands attention from the defense.  Not just in where he is, but in where he can go with the ball.   Spacing will become a priority for the team to ensure that Simmons has passing lanes.

However, even if the defense cheats, Simmons has the ability to make them pay.  Simmons can burn the defender who cheats by leaning his way.  All it will take is one lightning fast pass to the open man for the shot the defender was responsible to block.  All game long.

While Simmons will always be a threat to put up a triple double, many will expect that feat to happen the moment he steps onto the basketball court.  It may take awhile before it happens. That’s not to say that he isn’t doing his part, as his offense alone could easily average well over 15 points per game.  For the player who will be distributing the ball to open shooters, that’s a great rookie season.

His play will bring more rebounds, an area the team needs to improve this year.  Working the boards and playing alongside Dario Saric, the team could develop an excellent fast break transition game by mid season.

Next: Rising Tide

Rising Tide

A rising tide lifts all boats.  That saying explains the performance of the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2016-2017 season in two ways.

Brown runs a Pace Space Pass offense, and that creates more opportunities for the team to score, and likewise for the opponent to score.  When the Sixers are being bested on a bad night, that pace continues to deliver the ball back into the hands of the hot handed opponent.  If the other team’s accuracy is better than the 76ers on any given evening, that will exaggerate the scoring differential.

But that same pace quality helps the Philadelphia 76ers if they are shooting more accurately.

With Simmons on the floor, the pace will hasten and the looks will improve.

How much of a difference will that make for this team?  Well the last time the Philadelphia 76ers averaged more than 100 points per game was the 1996-1997 season, the same season that the 76ers selected first in the NBA draft.  That year the team selected Allen Iverson.

Simmons will bring his own version of a rising tide to the team.  A missing ingredient in the past is a point guard who can take it to the hoop.  Whatever you want to call Simmons, that is one shot he can make and do rather well at it.  In fact, it is the presence of his scoring ability combined with the clarity of mind to pass at the right moment which will greatly enhance the team this season.

Next: Will Anyone Notice?

Will Anyone Notice?

From the first tip of the NBA season, there will be  a myriad of eyes upon the young Australian in a Sixers’ jersey.  Some will be rooting for the young man, but many will be looking for a flaw, some chink in the armor, already armed with stories of over-hyped rookie and failure of the 76ers to bring the young man along.

Don’t believe it.

To break into the top ten in the NBA in assists per game, Simmons will need to distribute 7.0 assists on average.  To break into the top ten in rebounding this season, Simmons will need to pull down better than 10.2 rebounds per game.  And to land in the top ten in the NBA on scoring, Simmons will need to score better than 23.1 points per game.  Of the three categories in the NBA, the most prominent statistic is scoring.

That simply won’t be Simmons role this year.

If he generates 10 points per game, 10 assists per game, and 10 rebounds per game, will the pundits and analysts applaud the effort?  Or is it more likely that too many will focus on the points per game and plant seeds of doubt as to the young man’s future?

For many players in Philadelphia, they will see improvement in the 2016-2017 season.  How much of that improvement will be attributable to Simmons?  Very little.  To catch the attention of the NBA awards, the achievement will need to be obvious and simple.

A 30 win season from the Philadelphia 76ers, even if the offense is scoring over 100 points a game, simply is not enough unto itself to make many take notice.

Next: Diving Board

Diving Board

But the season is not the end all, merely the base.  Solid fundamental basketball to build upon is the goal this season.  Simmons is the apex of solid fundamental basketball.  He’s lived it for 20 years. Now he gets to apply the concepts into an NBA career.

He’s the key, but he is not the only player looking to elevate their game. Dario Saric journeyed a very long way to the US to become a member of the NBA Philadelphia 76ers.  His Olympics performance proves he is NBA ready.  So too Joel Embiid’s arrival to the NBA continues to be on track so far.

Players who started last season will find themselves on the bench playing hard for minutes on the court.  The same players who fought hard despite being out-manned last season will have the chance to compete at the same level this year, with a full bench.  Outcomes will be different.

Simmons brings more than just assists. His presence on the team serves as the vanguard to the new Philadelphia 76ers.  He won’t be asked to do it alone, nor in just one year.  But he is here now, and the team will improve each year as he grows and matures.

The impact of Ben Simmons will not knock you down, nor will it blow you away.  Like the rising of the sun on a chilly morning, the first rays of light will make you feel better, but the chill of last season will linger.  It will take several months before you notice the difference.

Next: Comparing the Philadelphia 76ers' Rebuild to the Nets' Rebuild

Last season point guard Ish Smith averaged 32.4 minutes, 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.28 steals and .36 blocks per game.   As a rookie, Simmons will likely come in at 30 minutes, 15.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Is that sufficient to win ROY nomination? Perhaps.  But it will be a great start to his NBA career.

The goal of the path these 76ers are on is a championship.  Ben Simmons impact will place the 76ers much closer to that goal.