2017 Bold Predictions: Sixers Will Shoot Below Average From Beyond Arc

The Philadelphia 76ers have added some shooters to their squad, but they will not shoot above 35 percent from beyond the arc next season.

The Philadelphia 76ers have struggled to succeed from beyond the 3-point line over the last several seasons. The NBA is ever-changing, and the general trend of the league is moving away from 2-pointers to 3-pointers. The strategy makes a lot of sense, since a 3-pointer gives you the most possible points on a possession.

The Sixers have been unable to latch onto that “new” strategy. Since undergoing their new radical rebuilding strategy in 2013, the Sixers have failed to shoot above 35 percent from beyond the arc as a team. They have also been 24th overall in the league (at best) in 3-point percentage over those three seasons. Prior to undergoing that rebuild, they were average, hovering right around 10th in the league each season.

This upcoming season, however, there is the hope that the team will finally have more success from beyond the arc. With the team drafting Ben Simmons first overall in this year’s draft there is the hope that he will set players up with decent shots from beyond the arc. The team also signed some solid deep shooters to surround Simmons with. Simmons himself is not a great shooter — as made evident by his mere 3 attempted 3-point shots during his freshman season — but he is an elite passer who can thread the needle to get the ball to virtually any open teammate on the floor.

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The Sixers brought in Jerryd Bayless as a free agent, who has shot 37 percent throughout his career from the 3-point zone, but has been on the upswing as a sharpshooter. This past season, he shot 43.7 percent from beyond the arc.

They also added Gerald Henderson, who shot 35.3 percent last season from beyond the arc.

The last big free agent signing was Sergio Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been in the league previously, but took a few years off to work on his game in Real Madrid. As an NBA athlete, he shot just 31 percent from beyond the arc, but he worked on his long ball in Spain. He averaged 37 percent from beyond the arc in Euroleague, and shot 40.5 percent in his final season with Real Madrid.

Lastly, the Sixers added Dario Saric to their roster, a player they drafted in 2014 who has been stashed in the Turkish league. Dario shot 30 percent in 2014 and 2015, but kicked it up a notch this season, shooting above 40 percent from beyond the arc. He has proven to be consistent throughout Olympic qualifying tournaments and the Olympics themselves.

The Sixers also are bringing back Robert Covington, who was decent from beyond the arc last year, shooting 35 percent.

All signs point to the Sixers upping their 3-point percentage to beyond 35 percent this season. But while Sixers fans hope that is the case, they may be left disappointed if they expect that metric.

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The Sixers certainly have added pieces to their roster that, in theory, should boost the 3-point percentage, looking at their most recent seasons. But many of these players I just mentioned with solid recent 3-point percentages had huge years this past year from beyond the arc, and those success rates are outliers compared to their overall 3-point percentages.

Take Jerryd Bayless, for example. Over his eight seasons in the league, he’s shot below 20 percent from beyond the arc twice, and below 35 percent 3 times. Only twice has he been above 40 percent.

Henderson is similar, shooting below 25 percent 3 times, below 35 percent 3 times, and just had his first season above 35 percent this year.

Many of these Sixers that have been brought on that appear to have great 3-point percentages have had outlier years recent seasons.

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That, in combination with the fact that the Sixers are a team with a lot of new faces and a lot of chemistry issues that could arise, leads me to believe it may be tough for the Sixers to succeed beyond the arc. Although that seems troubling, I think it’s okay. This season is largely an experimental year, the Sixers still are not looking to necessarily compete in the playoffs this season. The 3-point shooting will come, it just may take longer than a season.