Top 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates Entering 2016-17

Oct 11, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) drives against Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) during the first quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 11, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) drives against Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) during the first quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
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Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

There are people dubbing Hield the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, among several other things. So, naturally, I’m here to pump the brakes on the proverbial hype train in regards to Hield. The youngster was incredibly fun to watch at Oklahoma last season.  The Pelicans will give him plenty of room to operate -but the conditions simply aren’t the same.

Hield’s production during his breakout senior campaign relied upon isolation scoring.  He played in an offense that ran, unabridged, through the sharpshooting two-guard. His offense erupted in college basketball by a great scheme.  That scheme delivered more than enough opportunities to him to gel incredible offensive production on a nightly basis.

That won’t happen in the NBA.

He could develop into an offensive contributor in the NBA.  But the system masked his deficiencies in college.  That customized approach to his offense won’t happen in the NBA.  There are some concerns that should limit the seemingly overwhelming optimism surrounding him.

The first of those concerns is his athleticism.

Heild isn’t an overly impressive athlete.  He has a sub-par wingspan and a general lack of explosiveness.  That will limit him against the more gifted perimeter talents in today’s league. Defensively he’ll be outmatched consistently early on, and his inability to get open without countless opportunities to carve out his own offense could prevent him from becoming the secondary option to Anthony Davis that some may be picturing him as. He needs to work on his passing, while also accelerating the speed of his play. He’s a score-heavy offensive piece, and may need to be patient in an offense that won’t rely solely on his output.

For the forseeable future, Anthony Davis presides as the overarching force behind the Pelicans’ offense. Davis’ post presence will open up shots for Hield outside.  That combination will give Heilld plenty of chances to make opponents pay as a result.  The offense will run through Davis, however,  which will limit Heilld’s upside. Davis carried this team all of last season.  That won’t change this year.

Assuming the Pelicans don’t make significant strides, Hield will be more of a serviceable  rotational player than an all-out featured part of the offense, something that many seem to deem him as of right now. Tyreke Evans and Lance Stephenson are two legitimate contributors who are bound to see considerable time on the wing as well, once the first gets healthy. Hield was more of a sure-thing contributor from my perspective coming into draft night, more so than a superstar lottery bid– and my stance hasn’t changed.

There’s also no guarantee that we see Hield crack the starting rotation this season. He’ll start the year on the bench according to John Reid of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, and that is in lieu of injuries to an already-plagued Pellies backcourt.

He’ll have his chances to put up fine statistics, but don’t be considering him your top Rookie of the Year candidate quite yet. He has much more to prove.