The Philadelphia 76ers must face a future with Joel Embiid, and without Joel Embiid, as the rookie center builds health and stamina through this season. As the team enters their tenth game, how are they progressing statistically?
We know the results of the 2015-2016 NBA season. Ten Wins Seventy-Two Losses, but the first pick of the 2016 NBA Draft in the form of Ben Simmons.
The team replaced Sam Hinkie (a virtual firing) with Bryan Colangelo. This season, the team boasts two-year red-shirted players Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, as well as rookie yet-to-see-the-basketball-court Ben Simmons. Right now, the team is sitting with one win and eight losses (which is very much aligned with the teams record from a year ago). So let’s ask the questions everyone has on their minds.
Is this team better?
Well, right off the bat we can state with a resounding YES. Joel Embiid, despite limited playing minutes, is showing remarkable comprehension and skills despite playing in just six NBA games in his entire life. The team will be joined by top draft pick Ben Simmons in January (or thereabouts). Both players are very skilled and have incredibly high ceilings. So the future today is much brighter than the future of a year ago.
But is the team showing up in the statistics?
Offensive Offense No More
The Philadelphia 76ers offense from the 2015-2016 season was the NBA’s version of the “chuck and duck” offense. Starting 15 different players in the season, the team’s top scorers only entered in the starting lineup two thirds of the games. Only one player started 60 or more games, Nerlens Noel, and he scored 11.1 points per game.
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The second most start for the Philadelphia 76ers was point guard Ish Smith, who joined the team in December 2015 following a trade with the New Orleans Pelicans. In the end, only five players on the team started over half the games played in the season.
That lack of consistency showed as the team scored just 97.4 points per game, narrowly avoiding the NBA’s worst offense by bettering the Los Angeles Lakers by 0.1 point. So far, the team’s offense is running at 96.4 points per game. But the team’s starting lineup played together for the first time on opening night. So far, the same five guys have played together six of nine times. It should not surprise anyone to learn that the team has brought an NBA worst offense of 92.8 points per game up to the current rate of 96.4.
Better Start, Better Finish
A year ago, the team started the season at 86.0 points per game and ran at just 91.6 points per game in the month of November. In fact, the team brought in assistant coach Mike D’Antoni to help resuscitate the teams offense.
There are other signs of this teams offense having far more upside. The teams adjusted field goal percentage this year sits at 19th in the NBA at 49.0 percent. A year ago, the team ended the season at 25th in the NBA with 48.7 percent. The team is also on par with the number of assists generated a year ago, with this year’s 21.4 assists per game coming in at 14th in the NBA, while last year’s 21.5 percent ended at 20th in the league.
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The current version of the Philadelphia 76ers are still familiarizing themselves with one another. While the team has played nine games, three of those found either Richaun Holmes or Jahlil Okafor starting as the team’s center. In those games, the team managed to score 93, 115 (in overtime) and 96 points. For comparison purposes, Jahlil Okafor is strong offensively.
But in those three games, the team surrendered an average of 113.3 points per game.
OUCH!
So while the Philadelphia 76ers are building their offense this season, they are far ahead of last year’s struggles. But what about the defense?
Defendable Defense
The “who’s who” style of starting roster changes also hurt the team on defense, as the 76ers land 29th in that statistic as well.
Last season, the team surrendered 107.6 points per game for 29th in the NBA. This year, despite surrendering 108.2 points per game, the team checks in at 23rd in the league.
A year ago, the Philadelphia 76ers sat dead last in rebounds, managing a mere 41.2 boards per game. This year, the team is sitting at 19th in the league with 42.8 boards per game. The improvement has come despite the lack of production on the offensive boards, where the team’s current rate of 7.9 offensive rebounds per game is far behind last year’s 9.5 offensive rebound per game.
Air Alamo
Strides have come on the defensive side, where the team’s 34.9 defensive rebounds per game are good enough for sixth in the NBA. Last year’s 31.8 defensive rebounds came in at 26th in the league.
The team sits at third in the NBA with blocked shots at 5.9, while it boasted 6.0 blocks from a year ago. Keep in mind that the team dealt forward Jerami Grant and has not seen Nerlens Noel on the basketball court. The pair contributed over 3.0 blocks per game last year.
The difference maker so far is Joel Embiid. When he plays, the teams defense improves by nearly 10 points per game. (113 vs 104) The problem lies in the fact that he is not up to handling the full load of the team, yet.
Brett Brown: Sixers need Joel Embiid to be 'crown jewel' of defense https://t.co/ZoUOq5TZuf
— Jessica Camerato (@JessicaCamerato) September 16, 2016
Each day he grows a little stronger. Eventually, he will pick up more time per game, and then more games. By season’s end, he should be up to full strength.
The Other Side Of The NBA
As the season progresses, Embiid will take on more of the team’s load. That unto itself will improve this team. But do not lose sight of a little trend of playing the same five each night. That will pay HUGE dividends as the team begins to compete with the middle and lower tiers of the NBA.
So far, the team has played nine games, six of which are teams winning at a 60 percent clip or better. With today’s Houston game, the team enters a six game stretch of facing opponent playing at less than a 60 percent clip.
In the upcoming weeks, the team takes on Houston (5-4), Washington (2-7), Minnesota (4-5), Phoenix (3-8), Miami (2-6) and Memphis (4-5) before facing the Chicago Bulls (6-4) and Cleveland (8-1). If the 76ers can win two of the next six contests, the team will be 3-12. While that is not on pace for post season, it’s world’s better than last season’s winless October and November.
And so, statistically, the team is showing signs of improvement. That success will show modest, but important, improvement in the win column. It’s clear that the Philadelphia 76ers are not ready to challenge the best in the NBA for post season play.
Next: The Sixer Sense Roundtable: Joel Embiid First Impressions
But don’t rule this team out just yet. In just nine games, the cohesiveness of this squad is improving rapidly. By the time Ben Simmons joins the team, consecutive wins will not be the jaw-dropping moment they would be early in the season. The more this team, and this lineup, familiarizes itself with one another, the better the team becomes.
Consistency is a sign of a team committing to her players. It’s time to do so.