The Sixer Sense
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The Philadelphia 76ers Must Trade not one, not two, but three Big Men

By Mike O'connor

Dec 11, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (R) and center Jahlil Okafor (M) greet Detroit Pistons forward Stanley Johnson (L) prior to game action at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 11, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (R) and center Jahlil Okafor (M) greet Detroit Pistons forward Stanley Johnson (L) prior to game action at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Philadelphia 76ers Must Trade not one, not two, but three big men to rebalance playing time of the center position

The Philadelphia 76ers’ big man log jam has reached “2016 Sixers big man log jam” proportions. Yes, the impasse is so significant that it can only be referenced to itself.

Indeed, the Philadelphia 76ers have assembled a real life version of the NBA 2K “My Association” after one too many trades with the computer. Trying to allot the minutes in such a manner that does not bring every player’s morale to zero was a task tall enough to make any man crumble. Simpler times.

Current Situation:

Let’s examine the Sixers’ minutes breakdown as the roster currently stands. 

There are 96 minutes per game available at the Power Forward and Center positions in an NBA game.

  • Joel Embiid will unquestionably consume 28 minutes per game at the Center position. No issue here.
  • Jahlil Okafor is guaranteed at least the remaining 20 minutes at the Center position, and often consumes the remaining eight of his average at the Power Forward alongside Embiid. 
  • Ersan Ilyasova is a viable frontcourt complement to either young center, and is earning about 29 minutes per game so far this season. Can’t complain here.
  • Rookie Dario Saric gets 21 hard-earned minutes per game.

Whoops. We’re at 106 minutes already. This leaves zero minutes per game for Nerlens Noel and Richaun Holmes and infers that Saric will be forced to play at least 10 minutes per game at Small Forward when the team is at full health. In addition, it accounts for no frontcourt time for Ben Simmons upon his return. Hold this thought.

I’ll also base my argument on the assumption that the Sixers will retain Ersan Ilyasova after the year ends. Ilyasova is a valued veteran presence who complements Embiid well and I expect will not demand a max contract.

The On-Court Impact

The big man log jam is as much of a long-term fit issue as it is short-term performance. The cluttered frontcourt combination of Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid is as much of a headache for the front office as it is for team and players’ success. Dario Saric, for example, struggles mightily when not given enough playing time to find his rhythm.

In addition to a sheer lack of minutes, the advanced stats reveal another very concerning trend. SportVU tracking data shows that every player on the Sixers roster worse when playing a position down.

This is cringe-worthy news for a team that has two fixtures at Center. The pile-up behind Joel Embiid is not a simple as idling talent. It is a thorough pattern of players becoming less effective, and less valuable, due to playing out of position. Each sub-optimal peg knocks down the next, extending all the way down to Robert Covington, who averages five more points per game per 36 minutes at the Power Forward.

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The opportunity cost of keeping these players is too high for General Manager Bryan Colangelo to sit and wait. The logjam is harmful to every meaningful metric of team success. Wins, player happiness, team chemistry, player value, and fan interest all decline with each waning day and each newly healthy player.

The Solution

Looking again at the lack of minutes to go around, it is clear that there are literally negative amounts of minutes for two 76ers big men. The current circumstances also do not account for the end of Embiid’s minute restriction and a healthy Ben Simmons.

Due to their natural position at center, it appears that at least one of either Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor will be dealt. Take away Noel, and we still have zero minutes for Richaun Holmes, zero Point-Forward Ben Simmons, too much Small Forward Dario Saric, and some Embiid-Okafor frontcourt. Richaun Holmes is the most likely domino to fall next due to his sprouting recognition around the league. Take away Richaun, and we have no Point Forward Simmons, some Small Forward Dario Saric, and at least eight minutes of the Embiid-Okafor frontcourt. The Sixers’ frontcourt will achieve equilibrium until they move one more player. That player must be Jahlil Okafor. Without Noel, Holmes, and Okafor, the Sixers frontcourt rotation would break down as follows:

One could argue the benefit of having extra bodies in the event of an injury. I cannot think of any franchise to date that maxes out its team’s potential with restrictions. That restriction is predicating its roster construction on the belief that their franchise player will incur a career-altering injury.

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This level of cluster on an NBA roster is unprecedented. The Sixers are laying waste to an unforeseen level of NBA talent.  In the process, they are losing out on countless possible trade solutions. While it is disconcerting to find that three of these players must go, it is comforting to imagine the return that three prospects of this level should net, even for pennies on the dollar. Bryan Colangelo had better get busy.