Should the Philadelphia 76ers Trade Jerryd Bayless?

Is there a case for the Philadelphia 76ers trading newly signed point guard Jerryd Bayless?

Doomed from the Start?

When Bryan Colangelo entered free agency this year, a mediocre signing that mortgaged the future was a fear among fans of the Philadelphia 76ers rebuild. For the most part, the front office avoided that pitfall. Only the third year offered to Jerryd Bayless may become costly.

By the time that third year arrives, Bayless will be 31 years of age, and the Sixers have presumably have found their point guard of the future. Then again, any winning team needs shooting depth off the bench. So Bayless could still provide value in leading a second unit. Specifically, a second team of Dario Saric and Jerryd Bayless could prove very potent offensively. There are a lot of factors to consider in this discussion.

Injury Factor

The wrist injury to Jerryd Bayless does not factor in here. It would be lazy to say we should not have signed him or need to get him out of town because he got injured. The only impact the injury has is that he cannot be traded before around this time next year. Bayless has to play in the fall of 2017 to prove he is healthy enough to provide a team value. Thus, the speculation and reasoning does not begin until next season or the latest the 2017-2018 trade deadline.

Minutes Distribution

Any argument that favors trading Bayless assumes the Sixers are drafting at least one point guard in the 2017 draft. The prevailing consensus is that this draft has 3-4 potential starting guards with one potential superstar in Markelle Fultz. Throw in giving Ben Simmons minutes at the point and it is getting crowded.

The current point guard rotation has landed Sergio Rodriguez an average of 27.1 minutes and T.J. McConnell 19.8 minutes. If you consider a similar minutes distribution next year, Bayless will start the year with Sergio’s current minutes with Simmons at power forward. The 2017 draft pick could slot in at T.J.’s slot. Then similar to a rookie quarterback in football, the rookie can take over when the coach’s feel he is ready. Bayless suddenly goes to the bench.

This leaves maximum of 20 minutes next year at $9 million a year. Additionally, if Brett Brown impressed enough with the rookie to give him up to 30+ minutes a night, that leaves Bayless at 18 or less minutes at point guard. I will pass on that as an efficient use of the Sixers cap and roster space.

Player Development

The above assumptions only account for the point guard position. One could argue Bayless could just move over to the shooting guard spot with the new point guards coming. In terms of player development, having an above average 3-point shooter like Bayless next to Ben Simmons looks good on paper, but the Philadelphia 76ers are well stocked with prospects at shooting guard as well.

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Nik Stauskas has proven this year he can be at least a rotational player. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has shown flashes of strong perimiter defense and 3-point range. Furkan Korkmaz could come over and push for a spot right away. What if we want to target a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or J.J. Redick in free agency? Will TLC, Furkan, Nik Stauskas, and/or any potential 2-3 wing we draft or acquire via Free Agency next year be shafted?

Will this development or acquisition come at the expense of getting Jerryd Bayless veteran minutes? Holding Jerryd Bayless provides uncertainty to these questions and limits the Sixers’ optionality after next season.

Roster Space

Let’s take a look even deeper at the Sixers roster considerations.

Guards:

2017 Lottery Pick
Nik Stauskas
TLC
Furkan Korkmaz

Forwards:

Robert Covington
Dario Saric
Ben Simmons

Centers:

Joel Embiid
Jah/Nerlens or other backup center
Richaun Holmes

Other Roster Spots:

2017 2nd Lottery Pick (Lakers)
Player received from Noel or Jahlil trade(s)
2018 1st Round Draft Pick

13 out of 15 (non-D League 2 way contracts) roster spots are already filled by players under contract through 2018 or presumed first round draft picks and trades. Also, this does not include any potential free agents Philadelphia will sign like Ersan Ilyasova. (If Bryan Colangelo is to be taken at his word). Simply put, there is just not much room for Jerryd Bayless after next season.

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Financial Considerations

Between the players on the current roster and future players the Sixers will acquire, the Sixers could be paying $9 Million to their thirdpoint guard by the 2018-2019 season. Paying Bayless limits what the Sixers could offer in free agency upcoming summers. Additionally, whoever is left on the roster next year, Nerlens or Jahlil may need to be traded by the 2018 Deadline or Draft. A trade like this will be much easier to make if the Sixers can take on a contract from some other team. The extra $9 million becomes even more of a hindrance.

Clear Decision

Ultimately, the potential of back court development and the freeing of cap space to sign a free agent in 2018 outweigh keeping Jerryd Bayless to be a leader for bench units. Land the Plane Bryan, and trade Jerryd Bayless as soon as December of next year.

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Sixers fans can then start to salivate over watching Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Dario Saric paired with a back court featuring Markelle Fultz, Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr. The rest of the league will not be as overjoyed.