The Sixer Sense
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NBA Draft: Sacramento Swap Still Shining For Sixers

By Bret Stuter

May 17, 2016; New York, NY, USA; General view during the NBA draft lottery at New York Hilton Midtown. The Philadelphia 76ers received the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
May 17, 2016; New York, NY, USA; General view during the NBA draft lottery at New York Hilton Midtown. The Philadelphia 76ers received the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Philadelphia 76ers 2017 NBA Draft Lottery remains uncertain as team finds wins this year. But that simply means the Sacramento swap rights will shine all the more brightly on NBA Draft Lottery night

The double edged sword of the NBA seems to punish the Philadelphia 76ers whether the team wins or loses. Right now, the team is finding a mini-run at success, winning three of the last four games, and finds itself no longer in optimal position for the top pick if the NBA Draft.

In fact, the team no longer has the best odds for the second pick either.  Right now, the 76ers best natural odds in the NBA Draft run at the fourth pick of the NBA Draft, a spot the team managed to avoid in the past.

Odds Maker

At 28th, the Sixers have a 15.6 percent shot at the first pick, a 15.7 percent shot at the second pick, a 15.6 percent shot at picking third, a 22.6 percent shot of the fourth selection,  a 26.5 percent shot at picking fifth, and a 4 percent shot of falling all the way to the sixth slot.  In fact, finishing 27th or 28th in the rankings feel like the worst finishes in the league, as the premium of picking better than the slot is outweighed by the risk of falling in the draft. Substantially.

Fortunately, the Philadelphia 76ers do not sit alone in this draft. They have vested interests in the selection of the Los Angeles Lakers, as well as a right to swap draft picks with the Sacramento Kings. As of today, Jan. 8, 2017, the Lakers pick is 85 percent likely to convey to the Philadelphia 76ers, at either 7th (59.9 percent), 8th (23.2 percent) or 9th (1.8 percent). That would give the Philadelphia 76ers two top ten NBA Draft picks in a very deep draft.

Yowzah! Philadelphia 76ers fans simply need to root against the Lakers landing in the top three picks. Easy, right?

King Me

But the interests of the Philadelphia 76ers run in the opposite direction when we discuss the Sacramento Kings pick. For the Kings, the Philadelphia 76ers are best serve IF the Kings land in one of the top three picks. Right now, that is an awfully slim probability at 4 percent.  But since the chance of a King top three pick gives the 76ers the right to swap, those odds simply increase our own.  So the 46.9 percent chance of landing in the top three improves to 50.9 percent, or better than even money, of landing a top three.

At this moment, the 76ers are 4.5 games behind the Kings. But at some point, that margin could shrink, or even grow in the 76ers favor. If that happens, the odds of landing in the top three will be better for the Kings than for the 76ers.

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Ideally, the Kings  must drop to the mid 20’s for the odds of a swap to improve noticeably. But no matter the odds of the Sacramento Kings landing in the top three, it benefits the 76ers overall chances of doing so.